The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: things like salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our Models and take a look at some of the players with the highest ceilings, value ratings and projected ownership for the Week 10 NFL slate.
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Quarterback
Top Ceiling: Aaron Rodgers vs. JAX — $7,900 on DraftKings, $8,400 on FanDuel
Rodgers continues to put together an excellent campaign in 2020. He’s averaged more than 281 yards per game and thrown 24 touchdowns compared to just two interceptions, and he leads all quarterbacks in QBR and passer rating. That has unsurprisingly led to excellent fantasy numbers as well: Rodgers has posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.28 on FanDuel through his first eight games.
He takes the field this week in a dream matchup vs. the Jaguars. They have been unable to stop the pass this season, ranking dead last in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, and Rodgers owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.9 on FanDuel. That’s the second-highest mark at the position.
Rodgers also stands out from a Vegas perspective. The Packers lead the slate with an implied team total of 31.75 points, and Rodgers has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.08 in 10 home starts with a comparable mark (per the Trends tool). Rodgers is particularly appealing this week on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 99%.
Top Value: Kyler Murray vs. BUF — $8,000 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel
Murray could very easily be listed in all three of these categories this week. Not only does he own the top projected Plus/Minus at the quarterback position on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but he also owns the top ceiling projection and ownership projection.
It’s easy to see why he’s rating so highly. He’s in an excellent spot this week in what is expected to be a high-scoring affair vs. the Bills. The total on this game sits at a slate-high 56.0 points, and the Cardinals are just modest 2.5-point favorites. The Bills have also been a great fantasy matchup for quarterbacks, giving Murray an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.9 on DraftKings.
Murray was good as a rookie, but his increased willingness to run has taken his fantasy stock to new heights as a sophomore. He’s averaged 67.9 rushing yards per game this season, and he’s also scored eight touchdowns through his first eight contests. That gives him an average of 12.79 fantasy points before factoring in any passing statistics. It’s hard to beat that kind of production.
Top Ownership: Josh Allen @ ARI — $7,500 on DraftKings, $8,700 on FanDuel
On the other side of that matchup, expect Allen to command similar ownership to Murray. He’s coming off a dominant performance in his last outing, finishing with 39.0 DraftKings points in a win over the Seahawks.
Allen is in another decent spot this week. The Cardinals defense isn’t nearly as bad as Seattle’s, but the Cardinals have played at the second-fastest pace in neutral game scripts this season. Buffalo ranks eighth in that department, so this game could feature a ton of possessions.
Allen is also capable of doing some damage with his legs. He’s not the same yardage threat as Kyler – he’s averaged 26.8 rushing yards per game this season – but the Bills like to use him as a power back near the goal line.
Running Back
Top Ceiling: Alvin Kamara vs. SF — $8,200 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Kamara posted a negative Plus/Minus for the first time all season in his last outing, but it wasn’t due to poor play. The Saints throttled the Bucs by 35 points, so they decided to take it easy on him in the second half. He ultimately played on just 51% of their offensive snaps in that contest, which is obviously a major outlier.
Kamara has some blowout concerns again this week vs. the 49ers, but he also has a huge ceiling if they can keep this game competitive. The Saints are currently favored by 10 points, and Kamara has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.06 as a favorite. He’s one of the few backs in the league who can score multiple touchdowns and catch double digit passes any week, and that will always give him a chance at a monster outing.
Top Value: Mike Davis vs. TB — $4,000 on DraftKings, $5,400 on FanDuel
Davis is the best value of the week regardless of position and it’s honestly not that close. His salary was slashed with Christian McCaffrey returning to the lineup week, but McCaffrey suffered a shoulder injury in that contest. He’s not expected to suit up this week vs. the Buccaneers, which means Davis should return to a featured role.
Davis started out with three straight performances of at least 22.1 DraftKings points with McCaffrey out of the lineup since the Panthers appeared to just slide him into McCaffrey’s role. That included a massive role as a receiver, resulting in at least six targets in four straight games.
There are a few concerns with Davis this week – the Bucs are a tough matchup, the emergence of Curtis Samuel, Davis’ lackluster production in his final few starts – but he’s simply too cheap for any of that to matter. He owns a projected Plus/Minus of +10.27 on DraftKings, and no other running back has a mark greater than +3.77. This is the definition of a free square for cash games.
Top Ownership: Duke Johnson @ CLE — $5,000 on DraftKings, $5,800 on FanDuel
The ownership is expected to be pretty condensed at the position this week. Davis will carry massive ownership considering his minimal salary, while Kamara and Aaron Jones are expected to be chalky at the top of the pricing spectrum.
Johnson is also expected to be a popular play. He is expected to see the majority of the Texans’ snaps at running back with David Johnson out of the lineup, and Duke finished with 16 carries and four targets in relief of David last week. That’s a lot of potential touches at a pretty reasonable salary.
He’s also in a solid spot vs. the Browns, who have been mediocre against running backs this season. They rank just 18th in rush defense DVOA and 31st in pass defense DVOA vs. the running back position.
Wide Receiver
Top Ceiling: Davante Adams vs. JAX — $9,000 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel
Were you expecting someone else? Adams has been one of the best receivers in football for the past few seasons, but he’s taken his performances to another level recently. His numbers over his past three games are mind-boggling: 30 catches, 422 yards, six touchdowns. Overall, he’s averaged 38.1 DraftKings points per game over that time frame.
The only possible cause for concern with Adams is the weather. The current forecast calls for 28 mile-per-hour winds at kickoff, which could make it tough for the Packers’ passing attack. That will definitely be a situation you’ll want to monitor before lineup lock.
Top Value: Jakeem Grant vs. LAC — $3,000 on DraftKings, $4,600 on FanDuel
Grant looks like a nice potential value at the wide receiver position this week. He’s been more involved in the offense recently and is coming off a season-high five targets in his last contest, and he has the potential to earn even more playing time moving forward. Preston Williams is out for at least the next three weeks with a foot injury, and the Dolphins traded Isaiah Ford to the Patriots prior to the trade deadline. That doesn’t leave a whole lot of competition for Grant in terms of snaps.
Grant is also the type of player who is capable of taking any catch to the house. He ran a 4.42 40-yard dash during the pre-draft process, and he’s put that speed on display plenty of times in the past. The Chargers have been below-average at defending the deep ball this season, so this is a decent matchup for Grant as well.
Finally, his role as a punt returner could provide some additional value. He’s already taken one kick to the house this season, and it’s always nice to have multiple ways to fantasy-relevance.
Top Ownership: Keenan Allen @ MIA — $7,100 on DraftKings, $7,800 on FanDuel
What does Allen have to do to get some respect? He’s posted three straight games with at least 21.7 DraftKings points, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in six of seven games with Justin Herbert under center. The only exception was a game where he finished with 10.9 DraftKings points before leaving the game after just 12 snaps.
Allen’s target share over the past year is also very impressive. He’s garnered 27.8% of the Chargers total targets, which is the fourth-highest mark on the slate. Only Adams, Michael Thomas, and DeAndre Hopkins have garnered a larger share of their team’s targets over that time frame, and all three players are more expensive than Allen on this slate.
Tight End
Top Ceiling: Darren Waller vs. DEN — $5,900 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
Travis Kelce and George Kittle are unavailable on the main slate this week, which leaves Waller as the top tight end to pay up for. He hasn’t had a true ceiling game since scoring 31.3 DraftKings points back in Week 2, but he has scored at least 13.2 DraftKings points in four of his past five games.
He leads all tight ends on the main slate in terms of target market share and yardage market share by a significant margin, which is obviously valuable in fantasy football. The only thing he hasn’t done a ton of recently is score touchdowns, but he managed to find the end zone last week. No tight end on the slate can match his upside if he puts it all together.
Top Value: Noah Fant @ LV — $4,900 on DraftKings, $5,700 on FanDuel
Fant is basically the last man standing at the position in Denver. They’ve had four tight ends land on the IR since the beginning of the season, including talented rookie Albert Okwuegbunam. Okwuegbunam had emerged as a fantasy factor recently, so his absence should lead to a boost in production for Fant.
Fant is coming off a pedestrian performance in his last contest, but he had seen at least seven targets in each of his previous two games. He leads the position with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $5,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%.
Top Ownership: Dallas Goedert @ NYG — $4,200 on DraftKings, $5,800 on FanDuel
Goedert got off to a fantastic start this season, logging at least eight targets in each of his first two games. Those performances came with Zach Ertz in the lineup, which makes them even more impressive.
He struggled in his first game back from an extended injury two weeks ago vs. the Cowboys, but his fantasy stock is definitely pointing up. He played on 84% of the snaps in that contest, which represented a massive increase compared to his early season marks. With Ertz sidelined, the coast is clear for Goedert to continue to see a massive workload moving forward.
The Giants have not been as bad against tight ends this year than they have been in the past, but this is simply too cheap for Goedert in a featured role.
Pictured above: Mike Davis #28 of the Carolina Panthers
Photo credit: Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
