The NFL offered up another appealing appetizer on Thursday, with the Washington Football Team sneaking out a slim victory vs. the Giants. Now it’s time for the main course. Sunday features a 13-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays at each position using the FantasyLabs Tools.
Quarterback
Stud
Tom Brady really might be an alien. He recently turned 44 years old, but he’s arguably still at the peak of his powers. He shredded the Cowboys on opening night, finishing with 379 passing yards and four touchdowns.
He’s in another exploitable spot this week vs. the Falcons. Their pass defense is shaky at best, and they allowed Jalen Hurts to have his way with them last week. If Hurts can do that with his arm, Brady can certainly do it as well.
The Bucs currently lead the slate with an implied team total of 31.5 points, and Brady has historically smashed in that situation. He’s played in three games with an implied team total of at least 30 points as a member of the Bucs, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.78 in those contests (per the Trends tool).
Brady leads all quarterbacks in Ceiling Projection in our NFL Models, but he’s just the fourth-most expensive quarterback on DraftKings. That’s a solid combo.
Value
Quarterback doesn’t seem like a position where you want to pay down too far this week, but Teddy Bridgewater should provide some value. He posted a +5.25 Plus/Minus on DraftKings last week vs. the Giants, and he has another solid matchup this week vs. the Jaguars. They ranked 31st in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA last season, and they don’t figure to be much better in 2021-22.
Bridgewater did lose his top target in Jerry Jeudy, but he still has an abundance of weapons to lean on. Courtland Sutton, K.J. Hamler, and Tim Patrick are all solid receivers, and Noah Fant and Albert Okwuegbunam might be the best TE-duo in the league.
Quick Hits
The game between the Cowboys and Chargers figures to be the highest-owned of the week, and both quarterbacks should carry plenty of interest. Justin Herbert currently owns the top ownership projection across the industry, while Dak Prescott ranks second on DraftKings and third on FanDuel.
Both players obviously have appeal in what is expected to be an elite game environment. The total currently sits at 54.5 points, which is the top mark on the slate. Herbert should have plenty of time to pick apart a poor Cowboys’ secondary, especially with DeMarcus Lawrence out of the lineup. Prescott’s matchup isn’t as appealing, but he might be matchup-proof at this point. He dominated last week against one of the best defenses in football, so there’s no reason he can’t do it again vs. the Chargers.
Josh Allen laid an egg last week, but Billy Ward makes the case for him as a bounce-back target in this week’s Quarterback Breakdown.
Russell Wilson could fly a bit under the radar this week, but he has tons of upside vs. the Titans. They were absolutely shredded by the Cardinals last week, and the Seahawks are currently implied for 30.0 points. That’s the third-highest mark on the slate. Wilson may not possess the elite volume we’re looking for in a quarterback – he threw just 23 times last week – but he makes up for it with some of the best efficiency numbers in football.
Running Back
Studs
Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, and Alvin Kamara are all available on this slate, but it seems like most DFS players will go in a different direction this week. Those three players combined for massive ownership last week, but all three are currently projected for just 10-16.5% ownership on DraftKings in Week 2. None of those players are really popping in our NFL Models, but the thought of getting any of them at reduced ownership is always appealing for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Nick Chubb makes the most sense if you’re paying up for a running back in cash games. The Browns will take the field as massive favorites this week, which has historically led to success at the running back position. Chubb has historically played in three games when favored by at least 10 points, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.29 in those contests. The Browns ran the ball at the sixth-highest frequency when leading last season, so Chubb could be extremely busy vs. the Texans.
Najee Harris is coming off a disappointing pro debut last week, finishing with just 5.9 DraftKings points vs. the Bills. That said, there are plenty of reasons to be excited about Harris. For starters, he played on a perfect 100% of the Steelers’ snaps last week. He also saw 16 carries and three targets, which is solid volume.
Ultimately, Harris just got a bit unlucky. ProFootballFocus credited him with 18.4 expected DraftKings points last week, so he drastically underperformed his expected outcome. He’s a prime buy-low target against the Raiders, especially on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
Values
The midrange at RB seems like the sweet spot this week, but there are some intriguing value options if you need to save at the position. Kenyan Drake will likely garner the most ownership in this price range. Josh Jacobs has been ruled out for the Raiders, which opens the door for Drake to see a few more rush attempts. Jon Gruden did say that Peyton Barber would handle “some” of the lead back duties, but Drake should still improve on his six carries last week vs. the Ravens.
Even if he doesn’t, Drake still has some value as a pass-catcher. He finished with five receptions for 59 yards last week, which was more than enough to return value at his price tag.
Chase Edmonds is an interesting pivot off Drake on DraftKings. He’s priced the same as Drake, which means Edmonds should carry minimal ownership. Edmonds played in a timeshare with James Connor in Week 1, but there was plenty to like about his workload. He finished with 12 carries and four targets, and he saw 16 opportunities in just two of 16 games last year. If he can continue to serve as the 1A option in the Cardinals’ backfield, he should provide plenty of fantasy value this season. He’s averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per opportunity over his past 23 games, so he’s one of the more efficient backs in the league.
Quick Hits
Is Elijah Mitchell for real? That was the question that fantasy owners had to ask themselves before submitting waiver claims this week, and they’ll have to answer it again before submitting DFS lineups on Sunday. There’s no guarantee that he serves as the 49ers’ lead back this week, but if he does, he’s almost certainly underpriced at $5,000 on DraftKings. The sixth-round rookie out of Louisiana Lafayette is a workout warrior, ranking in the 86th percentile or better in 40-yard dash time, Speed Score, and Burst Score per PlayerProfiler. He also averaged 6.5 yards per carry in college, so don’t dismiss him just because Trey Sermon was a higher draft pick.
Jonathan Taylor is an extremely appealing buy-low option on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 97%. He finished with the fourth-most expected points at the position last week, but he underperformed his expectation by -6.1 FanDuel points. He still managed to post a positive Plus/Minus despite the mediocre performance, so he has significant upside if things break better for him vs. the Rams.
Kareem Hunt is an interesting pivot off of Chubb for GPPs. He benefits from the same potential game script as Chubb, but he should carry far less ownership at a significantly cheaper price tag.
Wide Receiver
Studs
The top of the wide receiver position could also be a bit overlooked this week. Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill are both not on the main slate, which leaves the top a bit thinner than usual. Guys like DeAndre Hopkins, D.K. Metcalf and Calvin Ridley are also projected for less than 10% ownership on DraftKings.
Stefon Diggs will likely be the most popular target in this price range, but he could still be a bit under-owned. His production last week was mediocre, finishing with nine catches for 69 yards, but he left a lot of meat on the bone. He saw 14 targets – the fifth-highest mark in Week 1 – resulting in 21.7 expected DraftKings points. That made him one of the unluckier receivers last week.
He should be able to bounce back in a friendlier matchup this week vs. the Dolphins. They have a solid pass defense, but they ranked just 17th in DVOA against No. 1 receivers last season. Overall, Diggs’ Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.4 makes this a plus matchup.
CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper are expected to be the two most popular receivers on DraftKings, and it’s hard to argue against them. They combined for an absurd 32 targets last week, and that was with Michael Gallup also starting. He’s out for at least the next three weeks after landing on short-term IR, so the Dallas’ passing attack could be even more condensed this week.
Cooper had the clear edge in DraftKings points between the two last week – Cooper had 38.9, Lamb had 23.4 – but their expected DraftKings points were nearly identical. I’d give Lamb the slight edge since he’s a bit cheaper, but you really can’t go wrong with either player.
Values
So much for Ja’Marr Chase not being able to play in the NFL. There was plenty made of his struggles during the preseason – drops, his inability to separate, and not liking the NFL ball were all stories – but the dude can absolutely play. Look at him put Patrick Peterson in an absolute torture chamber on this route:
Ja’Marr had the defense chasing ghosts 😈 @Real10jayy__ @Bengals
(h/t @JetPackGalileo) pic.twitter.com/1VEWJoiRBS
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) September 14, 2021
He remains affordable at just $5,000 on DraftKings, but this guy clearly has the ability for a Justin Jefferson-like rookie season. His matchup vs. the Vikings is also solid, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.1.
Marquez Callaway was not really needed by the Saints last week. They rolled through the Packers, and Jameis Winston only attempted 20 passes. Their volume should be up this week vs. the Panthers, which makes Callaway an appealing buy-low target. He still figures to serve as their No. 1 receiver sans Michael Thomas, and his price tag remains very affordable. The only real difference is that instead of being more than 20% owned like he was last week, he has the chance to check in with single-digit ownership.
If you need a pure punt play at receiver, you could do worse than Donovan Peoples-Jones. He’s priced at the minimum on DraftKings, but he saw a very respectable 80% snap share last week. He should see another expanded workload with Odell Beckham Jr. out of the lineup, and he doesn’t need to do much to potentially return value.
Quick Hits
The Seahawks passing attack is very condensed at the moment, with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett commanding most of their targets. That makes stacking both players with Wilson an appealing strategy. Lockett is coming off the bigger game last week, but Metcalf leads all receivers with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel. Both players are extremely underpriced on FanDuel, with each commanding a Bargain Rating of at least 98%.
Cooper Kupp is another player who should garner plenty of ownership this week. He showed instant rapport with Matthew Stafford in Week 1, racking up 10 targets, seven catches, 108 yards, and one touchdown. He has a nice matchup vs. slot corner Kenny Moore II, who allowed 0.55 fantasy points per route ran last week vs. the Seahawks.
Cole Beasley is another cheap option who makes plenty of sense for cash games. He’s priced at just $4,600 on DraftKings, and he piled up 14 targets last week vs. the Steelers. He ultimately finished with 20.2 expected DraftKings points, which was the 10th-highest mark of the week.
Tight End
Studs
Paying up at tight end on DraftKings is not expected to be a popular strategy this week. Travis Kelce is not available on the main slate, while Darren Waller and George Kittle are projected for less than 7.5% ownership. Both players should be a bit more popular on FanDuel, where fitting a stud tight end into your lineup is significantly easier to accomplish.
Waller has a brutal matchup vs. the Steelers, who were the best team in the league last year in DVOA vs. the tight end position. Still, he’s impossible to ignore at low ownership given what we saw last week. He led all players regardless of position with 19 targets, resulting in an unreal 30.1 expected DraftKings points. If the rest of the field is willing to pass on this guy because of the matchup, I will certainly take the plunge in tournaments.
Values
Most of the ownership at tight end is going to come in the midrange, specifically from Noah Fant and Tyler Higbee.
Fant has the potential to serve as one of the primary pass catchers in Denver with Jeudy sidelined. He saw eight targets last week vs. the Giants, and he ultimately finished with six catches for 62 yards. He draws an outstanding matchup this week vs. the Jaguars, who were merely 30th in DVOA vs. opposing tight ends last season.
Higbee could be poised for a monster season with the Rams. He split the reps at tight end last year with Gerald Everett, but he’s no longer with the team. That allowed Higbee to play on 100% of the Rams’ offensive snaps last week. He ultimately saw six targets from Stafford, resulting in a 23.1% target share. That was the fourth-highest mark at the TE position last week. He also ran a route on 21 of the Rams’ 26 passing plays, which is an excellent mark for a tight end.
Higbee’s matchup vs. the Colts isn’t nearly as friendly – they were fourth in DVOA vs. tight ends last year – but he’s simply too cheap at the moment.
Quick Hits
Kyle Pitts was a big disappointment in his pro debut, but he still racked up eight targets. Billy Ward suggests big things are coming for Pitts in this week’s Tight End Breakdown.
Adam Trautman is an interesting option if you’re looking to go super-cheap on DraftKings. Juwan Johnson got the headlines at tight end for the Saints after catching two touchdowns last week, but Trautman actually led the team with a 30% target share. He also played on 82% of the offensive snaps, compared to just 19% for Johnson.
Jared Cook is another cheap player to consider. He saw eight targets last week for the Chargers, and he’s an affordable way to get some exposure to the Chargers-Cowboys game. Using him in Chargers or Cowboys stacks could be an interesting method of diversification.
Lineup Construction
It seems like most people will focus on a balanced lineup this week. There are guys priced in the midrange at both running back and wide receiver that have the potential to produce like studs, and there aren’t a ton of appealing value options. Guys like Chubb, Harris, Lamb, Cooper, Kupp and Chris Godwin all fit that description.
Out of that group, I’m prioritizing Harris, Lamb, and Kupp for my cash game teams. Using those three players plus Higbee or Fant at tight end leaves an average of just under $5,500 for your remaining roster spots. If you also punt at defense, you can bring that mark up over $6,200 pretty easily. That gives you plenty of flexibility to round out the rest of your lineup.
For tournaments, an easy pivot would be to go with a stars-and-scrubs approach. The top three at running back all seems like they’ll be somewhat contrarian this week, as will guys like Waller and Hopkins.
For more thoughts on tournaments, make sure to check out Ryan Hodge’s Concise Convictions, Justin Bailey’s Small-Field GPP strategy, and Mike Randle’s Top Stacks. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter with any questions.
Good luck this week!
