NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle for Week 17’s Main Slate

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on these games into lineups.

Each week I’ll go over my favorite DFS angle for the given week and go over some of our Lineup Optimizer settings that are worth considering.

Now, let’s get to it!

My Favorite Week 17 NFL DFS Angles

Week 17 looks like an awesome GPP week on paper. There is a surprising amount of chalk condensing on such a large slate, which presents several appealing pivots from either the same team or the same price point. Here are a couple of pivots I have my eye on to help diversify a lineup.

Dalvin Cook: Justin Jefferson is popular and for good reason, but what if the touchdowns flow toward Dalvin in this spot against the sixth-most favorable matchup for opposing RBs. I’m expecting very low ownership here that makes for a great pivot off Jefferson, who should be one of the top two or three most popular plays at receiver.

Jamaal Williams: his snaps were down last week due to a negative game script, but Williams has broken several slates this year with his ability to fall into the end zone multiple times per game. The Lions are among the favorites to lead the slate in scoring this week, which should provide ample opportunities for Williams.

Sure, the passing game is more reliable and, thus, will be much higher owned. Williams offers a great pivot in lineups that don’t include Goff stacks in hopes that the NFL leader in rush touchdowns adds to his total.

David Njoku: Evan Engram has seen a legitimate role change over the last four weeks, averaging 10 targets per game in that time. He gets another cupcake matchup against the Texans, and that has him as the most popular tight end play of the week.

Njoku offers a nice pivot at the same price point, and I expect to see minimal ownership on Sunday. He is coming off of back-to-back tough matchups with some poor weather mixed in. This week, however, he gets a Commanders defense that is bottom 10 against tight ends by DvP. Sign me up for some shares when we are talking about an every-down player with a solid red zone role.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

Below are the rules to consider for Sunday. For more context on optimizer rules or the Showdown format in general, check out my NFL Showdown Primer.

General

Minimum salary cap: 99.6%. Leaving more than this causes you to lose significant win equity.

Flex positions: WR, RB

Player Correlations

Optimal tournament construction includes stacking your quarterback with at least one, but usually two, pass-catcher(s) from the same team and at least one pass-catcher from the opposing team.

A mobile quarterback with a big rushing game is more likely to only need one teammate paired. These settings can be accomplished through rules in the “Position” tab or through the Player Correlations tab for more control.

You typically want to avoid pairings like Justin Jefferson with Dalvin Cook in GPPs to ensure your ceiling isn’t capped. The Player Groups tab gives you more control over the process, but the Position tab can be used to completely group out running back paired with a wide receiver from the same team.

I think it’s okay to run Justin Fields without a stacking partner this week, given the number of good plays at tight end. However, I do prefer him paired with Cole Kmet.

Finally, with Christian Watson a true game-time decision. I will take some pre-lock shots at Rodgers double stacks with Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs. This offers a cheap and low-owned correlation with upside if Watson ends up missing or in a limited role.

Custom

Winning GPP lineups typically use 2-3 players that are less than 10% owned. The Lineup Optimizer allows you to accomplish this quickly.