NFL DFS Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle for Week 12’s Main Slate

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on these games into lineups.

Each week I’ll go over my favorite DFS angle for the given week and go over some of our Lineup Optimizer settings that are worth considering.

Now, let’s get to it!

My Favorite Week 12 NFL DFS Angle

Lots of good plays, especially at the running back position, are going to make this a very interesting slate for GPPs. There are a couple of things to consider to help you get different this week:

First, consider limiting to at most two of the condensed chalk running backs (Jeff Wilson, Rachaad White, Kenneth Walker, Samaje Perine).

Second, strongly consider avoiding Chiefs defense in tournaments. They will be the best projected defense across the industry and make for a great cash game play, but defense is notoriously random and difficult to project. That warrants a pivot, especially at ownership expected to be above 40%.

Third, consider getting off of Garrett Wilson, especially in lineups with the chalky running backs. Wilson’s projection looks great given his price, talent, and new QB situation, sure; consider, though, that the game itself has a total below 40 points and also features sub-par weather.

These are simple tweaks that could help optimize your lineup in GPPs to prevent having too much overlap with the rest of the field.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

Below are the rules to consider for Sunday. For more context on optimizer rules or the Showdown format in general, check out my NFL Showdown Primer.

General

Minimum salary cap: 99.6%. Leaving more than this causes you to lose significant win equity.

Flex positions: WR, RB

Player Correlations

Optimal tournament construction includes stacking your quarterback with at least one, but usually two, pass-catcher(s) from the same team and at least one pass-catcher from the opposing team.

A mobile quarterback with a big rushing game is more likely to only need one teammate paired. These settings can be accomplished through rules in the “Position” tab or through the Player Correlations tab for more control.

You want to avoid pairings like Davante Adams with Josh Jacobs in GPPs to assure your ceiling isn’t capped. The Player Groups tab gives you more control over the process, but the Position tab can be used to completely group out running back paired with a wide receiver from the same team.

The combination of cheap running backs combined with wide spreads makes run-backs much less of a rule this week. I won’t be actively pursuing an opponent paired with Chiefs stacks, and I wouldn’t fault you for including the Dolphins and 49ers as well.

Custom

Winning GPP lineups typically use 2-3 players that are less than 10% owned. The Lineup Optimizer allows you to accomplish this quickly.