Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.
This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on these games into lineups.
Each week I’ll go over my favorite DFS angle for the given week and go over some of our Lineup Optimizer settings that are worth considering.
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Now, let’s get to it!
My Favorite Super Bowl 57 NFL DFS Angle
Forgive me for going back to the well yet again, but I love Kadarius Toney on Sunday. I fear his ownership may get steamed a bit following James Palmer’s report this week, but he is still projecting for less than 20% total ownership at time of writing.
If you missed the report, Palmer reported that Toney is 100% and has shown a “special chemistry” with Patrick Mahomes, similar to that of Travis Kelce. He also reported the Chiefs are excited about an “expanded role” for Toney, including ways to use him after the catch. I’ve written this before, but Toney is a special talent with the ball in his hands, and the Chiefs don’t have anyone else with this kind of talent in the WR room. I’m all the way in.
One final note: the Chiefs led the league in press coverage snaps this year. Unsurprisingly, A.J. Brown has been much better than DeVonta Smith against press looks. Brown’s physicality helps him get off the line, and he thrives on in-breaking routes, which will be there if he is able to get inside leverage off the line. Smith has been Brown’s equal through the second half of the year, but I prefer Brown on Sunday.
Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider
Below are the rules to consider for main slate. For more context on optimizer rules or the Showdown format in general, check out my NFL Showdown Primer.
General
Minimum salary cap: 90%
Max 3 Defense vs. Position
Player Correlations
- Pair Captain Patrick Mahomes with at least two Chiefs pass-catchers (McKinnon counts)
- Pair Captain Jalen Hurts with at least one Eagles pass-catcher. Two is generally preferred, but Hurts’s rushing touchdown equity makes 1 OK
- Pair Captain pass-catchers with at most one other pass-catcher from the same team
- Decrease Jerrick Mckinnon by 5% in lineups with Isiah Pacheco Captain
Player Groups
- At most, two of Devonta Smith, AJ Brown, and Miles Sanders
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Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)
Primary Targets
- Travis Kelce
- Jalen Hurts
- Patrick Mahomes
- AJ Brown
Secondary Targets
- Jerrick McKinnon
- Kadarius Toney
- Devonta Smith
- Miles Sanders
Large-Field GPP Fliers
- Dallas Goedart
- JuJu Smith-Schuster
- Isiah Pacheco
- Marquez Valdez-Scantling
