Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.
This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on these games into lineups.
Each week I’ll go over my favorite DFS angle for the given week and go over some of our Lineup Optimizer settings that are worth considering.
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Now, let’s get to it!
My Favorite Conference Championship NFL DFS Angle
With just two games this weekend, this is a slate to lean away from rules as we generally use them and focus more on overall construction. My hunch is that we see Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow come in as by far the two most popular options at QB, with Joe Mixon and Ja’Marr Chase extremely popular as well.
One way I am looking to get off of this particular construction (Burrow, Mixon, Chase) while still targeting this game is with Patrick Mahomes stacks. Especially in single-entry and three-entry max, I think we might see the field overreact to the Mahomes injury situation despite him ending the week as a full participant in practice. As always, the question of who to stack him with remains, but I actually think JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kadarius Toney, Jerick McKinnon, and Travis Kelce provide viable options.
Taking it one step further, Joe Mixon was insanely efficient last week despite poor efficiency overall this year. He also continued to split snaps with Samaje Perine, playing just 56% of snaps last week. I think we can prioritize Perine over Mixon in Mahomes lineups, as Perine has clearly separated as the preferred pass-catching back.
These lineups “tell a story” of the Chiefs getting out to an early lead through the air and provide us with nice upside if this game script is the one that hits.
Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider
Below are the rules to consider for main slate. For more context on optimizer rules or the Showdown format in general, check out my NFL Showdown Primer.
General
Minimum salary cap: 99%
Flex positions: WR, RB, TE
No constraints on Defense vs. Position
Player Correlations
Optimal tournament construction includes stacking your quarterback with at least one, but usually two, pass-catcher(s) from the same team and at least one pass-catcher from the opposing team.
A mobile quarterback with a big rushing game is more likely to only need one teammate paired. These settings can be accomplished through rules in the “Position” tab or through the Player Correlations tab for more control.
I don’t think I would single-stack any QBs besides Hurts this week, and even that might not be a great idea.
When lineups include ALL of Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, include Brock Purdy.
When lineups include ALL of Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase, include Joe Burrow.
When lineups include ALL of AJ Brown and Devonta Smith, include Jalen Hurts.
Player Groups
- At most two of Joe Burrow, Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon
- At most two of Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell
- At most one of Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders
- At most two of Devonta Smith, AJ Brown and Miles Sanders
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