Week 9 delivers a 12-game main slate on DraftKings, and below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 9.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups for single-entry or 3-entry max tournaments and our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments. Our optimizer allows you to create up to 300 lineups with the click of a button.
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Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Bo Nix ($5,900) + Cortland Sutton ($5,400) + Mark Andrews ($4,200)
Facing the ultimate pass funnel defense in the Ravens, this ascending pairing of Nix and Sutton is a terrific, cheap stack for Week 9. This season, passing against Baltimore has been extremely favorable, while rushing against them has been very difficult, resulting in every offense airing it when they face the Ravens. For the season, Baltimore is allowing the fourth-most yards per pass (7.6) and the fewest yards per rush (3.3).
Nix is fresh off a career-best 29.76 DraftKings point outing vs. the Panthers, marking his third effort over 20 DraftKings points in his last three starts. During this four-week stretch, Nix is averaging 7.1 yards per pass and he has thrown for seven touchdowns and only one pick. On the ground, Nix is averaging 7.3 carries per game – which ranks third among quarterbacks during this time – and he has seen eight red-zone rushes over this four-game span. Nix should easily produce at least two touchdowns in this elite spot and he is vastly underpriced for his upside.
As Nix’s unanimous top target, Sutton should flourish against this susceptible Ravens’ secondary. As a direct product to Nix succeeding, which should be exactly the case again this weekend, Sutton also finished with a season-high 21.1 DraftKings points last week vs. Carolina. This season, the wideout is leading Denver with a 25.2% target share, and he has seen 11 targets over 20 yards and 11 red-zone targets, with that latter stat ranking third among skill players. No defense has given up more touchdowns to receivers than Baltimore this season (13), and Sutton has multiple touchdown upside in this gorgeous spot.
For a bring-back play for this Broncos’ pairing, Andrews makes a ton of sense. After a very strange start to his season, Andrews has come alive as of late, ranking fourth in DraftKings PPG among tight ends over the last three weeks (16.8). The tight end has found the endzone four times during this three-game span, and he has been targeted on 20% of his routes – including five red-zone targets – while running a route on 65% of his team’s dropbacks. Andrews all of a sudden ranks eighth in DraftKings points per snap among tight ends this season (0.24), and while this Broncos’ defense he is going against is arguably the best unit in the NFL, they are far more vulnerable to tight ends than to receivers. Plus, Denver uses man coverage at third-highest rate in the NFL, and Andrews has been terrific against man this season, catching all eight of his targets when facing this type of coverage. Andrews remains cheap despite his recent success, and this three-man game stack of he, Nix, and Sutton should be uber contrarian, with all three of these players forecasted to be less than 5% owned on DraftKings according to our projections.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Brian Robinson Jr. ($6,300)
Coming off a quiet 8.6 DraftKings point showing vs. the Bears, it seems as everyone has forgotten about Robinson Jr.. The back is forecasted to be only around 1% owned on DraftKings according to our projections, and Robinson Jr. is in a perfect spot to get back on track vs. the Giants, who are yielding the most yards per rush in the NFL this season (5.4). The back posted 17.6 DraftKings points vs. New York in Week 2, and he should have another great fantasy performance this Sunday. Robinson Jr. has been the Commanders’ primary rusher this season, averaging 14.4 carries per game – which is 65.2% of the team’s running back carries – while logging 52.9% of the snaps. Specifically, the 25-year-old has seen elite usage in scoring territory, ranking fifth in red-zone carries among running backs (25), despite Robinson Jr. missing one game.
He is averaging a career-high 4.6 yards per carry, and he ranks 14th in DraftKings points per snap among running backs (0.42). The Commanders carry a 24.25-point implied team total vs. the Giants this Sunday, and Washington is a four-point favorite for this NFC East tilt. The Commanders should feed Robinson Jr. in this positive game script, and he is an elite contrarian play with everyone sleeping on him this week.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
A.J. Brown ($8,100)
Brown has been stellar in his four games this season, averaging 21.5 DraftKings PPG, which is the highest average among all receivers this year. Brown ranks third in the NFL in target share (34.5%), and he has racked up six targets over 20 yards in only four starts. This Sunday, Brown is in a perfect position to continue his terrific season, going against the Jaguars. Jacksonville is giving up the second-most yards per pass (7.7), and the Eagles’ implied team total is the fifth-highest on the slate (26.25 points), which is the largest implied team total they have seen this season.
Additionally, the Jaguars use man coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, and Brown has produced the second-most receiving yards in the league against man coverage over the last two seasons. The star receiver is generating 21 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of at least 25 points over the last two seasons (13 games) – via the Trends Tool – and is a mouthwatering GPP play with our projections slating Brown to be only 7% owned on DraftKings.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Jonnu Smith ($3,500)
Projected to be only 2% owned on DraftKings this week, Smith is an outstanding GPP play. The tight end has obtained a target on 23% of his routes this season while running a route on 74% of his team’s dropbacks. The Dolphins visit the Bills for an AFC East matchup this Sunday and when these division rivals last faced in Week 2, Smith caught six of his seven targets for 73 yards (11.3 DraftKings points).
The reason for his success against Buffalo is that the team uses zone coverage at the sixth-highest rate in the league, and Smith has been awesome against this type of coverage. This season, 91% of Smith’s receiving yards, 20 of his 25 catches, and his lone touchdown have come against zone coverage. For some further perspective on his efficiency against zone – when Jones just faced the Colts two weeks ago, who use zone coverage at the highest-clip this season, the veteran caught all seven of his targets for 96 yards, a touchdown, and 22.6 DraftKings points, all of which are season highs for Smith. The tight end should score nothing less than 10 DraftKings points this week and is arguably the best value on the slate at his position.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
