Week 7 delivers a 10-game main slate on DraftKings, and below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 7.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups for single-entry or 3-entry max tournaments and our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments. Our optimizer allows you to create up to 300 lineups with the click of a button.
The Lineup Optimizer has endless customization opportunities.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Sam Darnold ($6,200) + Justin Jefferson ($8,500) + Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,300)
After getting a terrible matchup vs. the Jets in London in their last game, the Vikings return home this week following their bye to face the Lions. This game’s total is the third-highest on the slate (50.5 points), and Minnesota presents the third-highest implied team total on the board (26.25 points) as a 1.5-point favorite.
With Darnold under center, the Vikings rank fourth in pass rate over expectation this season, and the ex-Jet has been very efficient, ranking sixth in yards per pass (8.1) and fourth in passing touchdowns (11). Darnold ranks eighth in DraftKings points per dropback (0.57), and he has surpassed 20 DraftKings points in three straight starts before facing an elite New York defense his last time out.
As always, Jefferson has seen tremendous usage this season, with the receiver ranking fourth in the NFL in target share (33.9%), including 10 targets over 20 yards and five red-zone targets. Just like Darnold, Jefferson had topped 20 DraftKings points in three consecutive starts before going against the Jets in London, and the receiver should get back to his high-scoring ways in this shootout with the Lions, especially with this game at home in Minnesota. For the last six times Jefferson has competed at home and behind an implied team total of at least 25 points, the star has erupted for over 30 DraftKings points four times, via the Trends Tool.
Darnold and Jefferson both figure to be around 10% owned according to projections, but St. Brown is slated for single-digit ownership, and adding him to complete this game stack is a savvy contrarian move that has a clear slate-winning upside.
St. Brown ranks sixth in the NFL in target share (29.3%), fifth red-zone targets (9), and he has eclipsed 20 DraftKings points in three of his five starts this season. Minnesota has been a strong defensive group this season, ranking as the ninth-highest-graded defense on PFF, but this is actually a compelling matchup for St. Brown, with the Vikings using zone coverage at the 10th-highest clip in the league. Over the last two years, no player in the NFL has produced more receiving yards against zone than St. Brown. In fact, an eye-popping 94% of his receiving yards and nine of his 13 touchdowns have come against zone the last two years. For some perspective on his efficiency against zone coverage, when St. Brown played the Buccaneers in Week 2, who play zone at the highest rate in the league, the receiver went off for 25.9 DraftKings points. Especially with the Lions as underdogs for this matchup with the Vikings, St. Brown should be in store for a huge performance.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Chase Brown ($5,900)
Brown finally overtook Zack Moss as the Bengals’ No.1 back this past week. For the first time this season, Brown started for Cincinnati and drew the first touch of the game out of the backfield. The 24-year-old handled 62.5% of the Bengals running back carries and logged 62% of the snaps in the win over the Giants, which are both season highs for Brown. The percentage of his team’s carries he has received has grown in each of the last three games, and if this trend continues, Brown should dominate the usage and see 15-20 touches this Sunday vs. the Browns, who are giving up the ninth-most yards per rush this season (4.7).
Brown has been very efficient, ranking fourth among running backs in DraftKings points per snap this season (0.55), and with his role growing over the last three weeks, he has been a stud, scoring 18 DraftKings PPG. With the Bengals as 5.5-point favorites over Cleveland and carrying an implied team total of 23.5 points, Brown is one of the best running back values on the slate, and to put the icing on the cake, most DFS players have yet to realize his growing role. According to our projections, Brown is only expected to be around 12% owned on DraftKings this week.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Tank Dell ($6,500)
The Texans played their first full game of the season without Nico Collins (hamstring) last week, and Dell didn’t disappoint. The wideout caught seven of his nine targets for 57 yards and a touchdown vs. the Patriots. In this win, Dell posted 18.7 DraftKings points, and he led the Texans with a 29% target share and a 91% route rate, all of which are season highs for the wideout. This tilt was the second full game of Dell’s career that he has played with Collins inactive, and he is now amassing 18.8 FPTS per game across those two contests.
Collins remains out this Sunday and the Texans face the Packers in Lambeau Field. Green Bay is an average matchup through the air – they are allowing the 13th-most yards per pass (6.8) – but this game carries the fourth-highest total on the slate (47.5 points). The Texans rank 10th in pass rate this season, and they should be throwing it for most of this contest as three-point underdogs. Dell has a ceiling of over 20 DraftKings points in this spot, and in addition to being underpriced for that type of upside, our projections are forecasting him to come with single-digit ownership on DraftKings.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Zach Ertz ($3,900)
Hosting the Panthers, the Commanders boast the highest implied team total on the slate by nearly three points (29.75 points), and Ertz is a sneaky way to gain exposure to their offense – our projections are slating him to be only around 5% owned on DraftKings. Ertz has been the featured tight end for Washington this season, ranking second on the team in target share (17.6%) and route rate (80%). Plus, the veteran leads the Commanders with five red-zone targets, which ranks fourth among tight ends this season.
Evident by the Commanders’ massive team total, this is a dream matchup for them vs. Carolina. The Panthers are the worst-graded defense on PFF, and they yield the second-most yards per pass (7.8). Plus, they play zone coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Tight ends always benefit from a zone-heavy matchup, and Ertz is no exception. This season, 18 of his 21 catches and 85% of his receiving yards have come against zone. In this spot, Ertz is a strong bet for double-digit DraftKings points, which would be a great return at his salary.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
