Week 6 presents a 10-game main slate on DraftKings, and below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 6.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups for single-entry or 3-entry max tournaments and our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments. Our optimizer allows you to create up to 300 lineups with the click of a button.
The Lineup Optimizer has endless customization opportunities.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Jayden Daniels ($7,300) + Terry McLaurin ($6,400) + Derrick Henry ($8,000)
This Daniels and McLaurin pairing should erupt in a prime matchup vs. the Ravens this weekend. This season, Baltimore is allowing the fewest yards per rush (3.1) and the sixth-most yards per pass (7.5), making them the biggest pass funnel in the NFL. Dak Prescott and Joe Burrow both torched the Ravens for over 30 DraftKings points in the last three weeks, and this Sunday’s matchup between the Ravens and Washington carries the second-highest total on the slate (51.5 points). The Commanders are also 6.5-point underdogs for this contest and Daniels should reach a new career high in pass attempts in this situation.
The rookie has been highly efficient with his arm, ranking third in yards per pass (8.7), and his willingness to rush has been tremendous, with Daniels leading all quarterbacks in carries per game (11.2) and red-zone rushes (14). Ranking second only to his opponent in Lamar Jackson in DraftKings points per dropback (0.66), Daniels is already one of the top fantasy quarterbacks in the NFL, and over 30 DraftKings points is a realistic outcome for the rookie in this outstanding spot vs. the Ravens.
As for McLaurin, the wideout has been Daniels’ primary weapon. McLaurin leads the Commanders a 27.3% target share, including a pair of redzone targets. Furthermore, the receiver’s usage downfield has been incredible. McLaurin is tied for the most targets over 20 yards (11), and his air yards share is the highest in the league (56.9%).
Lastly, Henry makes perfect sense as a bring-back option to Daniels stacks. The veteran is the No.1 running back in DraftKings points per snap this season (0.64) thanks to great usage and efficiency. Among running backs, Henry ranks second in carries per game (19), including 12 red-zone rushes. Additionally, he ranks third in yards per carry (6.0) – which is a career-high for Henry – and he leads the NFL by a huge margin in rush yards over expected (229). Henry should dominate this Commanders defense that is giving up the second-most yards per carry (5.1), and the Ravens being 6.5-point favorites is a huge plus, with the back producing 3.3 more DraftKings PPG for his career when competing as a favorite. Baltimore’s implied team total is the highest on the slate (29 points), and for the seven occasions Henry has played as a favorite behind an implied team total of at least 28 points, he is averaging a robust 26.8 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.
While Daniels, McLaurin, and Henry are all going to be popular options this week, utilizing them together in the same lineup should be a strategy used by a very low percentage of the field.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
David Montgomery ($6,500)
As was the case last season, Montgomery has been a terrific fantasy producer this season. The veteran is scoring 18.1 DraftKings PPG, and he ranks second among all running backs in DraftKings points per snap (0.63). In terms of workload, Montgomery is leading the Lions backfield with 15.6 carries per game and 13 red-zone carries, which ranks 10th among running backs. As a receiver, the back has run a route on 30% of his team’s dropbacks and he has garnered a target on 21% of those routes. Overall, Montgomery has caught all nine of his receptions this season.
Following their bye, the Lions head to Dallas this Sunday, and this game is expected to be a shootout, with a slate-high total of 52 points. Detroit is favored by three points, and their implied team total is the second largest on the board (27.5 points). The Lions being favorited obviously bodes well for Montgomery, as does that the Cowboys have been terrible on defense this season, as the second-worst graded defense on PFF. Their run defense, specifically, is the worst-graded unit on PFF, and they have yielded the third-most touchdowns to running backs (seven). Montgomery is amassing 17 DraftKings PPG in totals of at least 50 points since joining the Lions last season – via the Trends Tool – and with all the ownership at running back congested around other names in the $6,000 range, Montgomery is expected to come with minimal ownership on DraftKings according to our projections. The back is a perfect example of an elite contrarian play and is a superb way to differentiate yourself this weekend.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
DeAndre Hopkins ($5,100)
The Titans have been slowly working Hopkins in this season as he recovers from a knee injury and the receiver should be in store for his largest workload of the season this Sunday, with Tennessee coming off their bye. Come Sunday, it will have been 13 days since the Titans last played, and in that last game, Hopkins ran a route on a season-high 56% of his team’s dropbacks. With plenty of rest in his favor, Hopkins should approach the 70% range this week, giving him great upside for a player this cheap.
Hopkins has been targeted on a team-best 23% of his route this season – including two red-zone targets – and he ranks 16th in DraftKings points per snap (0.31). The veteran gets a beautiful matchup vs. the Colts, who are surrendering the second-most yards per pass (7.9) and have played zone at the second-highest rate this season. Over the last two seasons, Hopkins has been great against zone, with 78% of his yards and 79% of his catches coming against this type of coverage. The Titans present a healthy implied team total of 22.75 points and Hopkins is a stellar sleeper pick, with our projections forecasting him to be only 2% owned on DraftKings.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Kyle Pitts ($4,400)
Pitts is coming off his best showing of the season. The tight end caught seven of his season-high eight targets for 88 yards. Pitts has now scored double-digit DraftKings points twice in his five starts this season. Once against the Buccaneers last week and in the season opener vs. the Steelers. What these two defenses have in common is that they both rank top seven in zone coverage rate this season, and on the menu for Pitts this Sunday is a matchup vs. a Panthers’ defense that plays zone at the fourth-highest clip in the league.
Pitts has been at his best against zone this season, with 74% of his yards, 14 of his 15 catches, and his lone touchdown coming against this type of coverage. Carolina is allowing the second-most yards per pass overall (7.9), and the Falcons sport the third-highest total on the board (26.5 points). Pitts ranks second in yards per reception among tight ends who have logged at least 50% of their team’s snaps this season (12.9), and he should thrive in this perfect matchup vs. the Panthers. Add in that our ownership projections are slating him to be less than 5% owned on DraftKings and Pitts is the best tight end GPP play available for this Week 6 slate.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
