Week 4 presents a 12-game main slate on DraftKings, and below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 4.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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The Lineup Optimizer has endless customization opportunities.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Andy Dalton ($5,300) + Diontae Johnson ($5,600)
With all the ownership at quarterback concentrated on Jayden Daniels and Kyler Murray this week, Dalton is getting way overlooked, despite being arguably the best value at the position – our projections are slating the veteran to be only around 5% owned on DraftKings this week.
Starting over Bryce Young last week vs. the Raiders, Dalton resurrected the Panthers offense and led his team to a 36-22 victory. The quarterback was extremely efficient, completing 70.3% of his passes for 319 yards, three touchdowns, and no picks, resulting in 27.6 DraftKings points. Dalton is now amassing 27.1 DraftKings PPG for the two full starts he has made over the last two seasons while averaging 7.4 yards per pass and 0.6 DraftKings points per dropback in those games.
While this is a limited sample of only two games, these numbers are tough to ignore for a quarterback priced at only $5,300. Plus, Dalton is at home and in a revenge spot against his former team in the Bengals, who are the 12th worst-graded defense on PFF. The Panthers have been even worse as the fifth-worst graded defense, and this game is expected to produce plenty of scoring, with this contest carrying the second-highest total on the slate (47.5 points). Additionally, Carolina is a 5.5-point underdog, so a pass-heavy game plan is expected for Dalton. The veteran should exceed 20 DraftKings points, and Johnson, once again, should be his primary target.
In last week’s win over the Raiders, Johnson came alive with Dalton under center, catching eight of his 14 targets for 122 yards and a touchdown, resulting in 29.2 DraftKings points. Johnson ran a route on 95% of Dalton’s dropbacks and saw a target on an incredible 38% of those routes, including one target over 20 yards and an eye-popping four red-zone targets, which is tied for the most red-zone targets a player has seen in one game this season. Johnson has displayed terrific upside throughout his career when playing with a competent passer, and he should have another great outing in this high total vs. the Bengals. Johnson is expected to be a chalky standalone play, but rostering him and Dalton together shouldn’t be a popular stack (though Johnson’s individual projected ownership is high) and is a pairing that has slate-winning upside.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Saquon Barkley ($8,000)
Barkley has been the No.1 fantasy scorer this season and is the favorite for Offensive Player of the Year, but the back is expected to be less than 10% owned on DraftKings this weekend, according to our projections. The reason for this is that a slightly cheaper Breece Hall is expected to be chalky, and Barkley is facing the Buccaneers. Last season, Tampa Bay was arguably the best rush defense in the league, allowing only 3.8 yards per carry, but this season, things have been very different. They are yielding the seventh-most yards per carry (4.9), and they have already allowed three rushing touchdowns to running backs in only three games after giving up only five for the entire season last year.
Things have clearly changed for this Buccaneers defense, and Barkley’s incredible season should continue in this spot. So far with the Eagles this season, the 27-year-old is averaging a league-best 30.1 DraftKings PPG, thanks to his true workhorse role. Among running backs, Barkley ranks second in snap share (83.6%), carries per game (21), and red-zone carries (15). As a receiver, the Ex-Giant has run a route on 71% of his team’s dropbacks, and he has seen a target on 13% of those routes, including four red-zone targets. This workload is second to none in the NFL this season, and Barkley should be the focal point of the Eagles offense this Sunday, with A.J. Brown (hamstring) and DeVonta Smith (concussion) both trending towards being out – neither has practiced this week as of Thursday.
The Eagles are 1.5-point favorites for this matchup, and for his career, Barkley is amassing 24.2 DraftKings PPG when playing as a favorite, and he has surpassed 20 DraftKings in 12 of those 17 games, via the Trends Tool. In our NFL models, Barkley boasts the No.1 leverage score on the slate among running backs.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Stefon Diggs ($6,600)
While most will gravitate towards Nico Collins, with Tank Dell (ribs) unlikely to play, Diggs has more appeal for GPPs at a lower cost and with less expected ownership coming his way. Diggs has scored at least 19 DraftKings points in two of his three games with the Texans and his role has been compelling, despite this Houston offense having many mouths to feed. So far, Diggs has seen a 22% target share – including three red-zone targets – while running a route on 96% of his team’s dropbacks. Notably, 62.7% of Diggs’ routes have come from the slot and his target share should reach new heights this week with Dell missing.
The Texans rank ninth in PROE this season and double-digit targets is a reasonable expectation for Diggs. His matchup is also awesome, facing the Jaguars, who are allowing the sixth-most yards per pass (7.4) and are the ninth-worst graded defense on PFF. Houston’s implied team total is the second largest on the board (26 points) and this game’s total is the third highest on the slate (45.5 points), via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page. This is a perfect situation for Diggs and he is a sharp way to gain a share of the Texans’ offense this weekend.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Zach Ertz ($4,000)
With old friend Kliff Kingsbury as the Commanders offensive coordinator this season, Ertz has seen a significant role for Washington that isn’t reflected in his current salary. The tight end has handled a 17.3% target share and he has run a route on 80% of his team’s dropbacks, both of which rank second for the Commanders, only trailing Terry McLaurin. Ertz ranks ninth among tight ends in DraftKings PPG with this workload (8.3) and he has been a top-10 finisher at his position for back-to-back weeks.
Up next for Ertz is a revenge matchup against his former team in the Cardinals, who are allowing the second most yards per pass this season (8.2). This tilt’s total is the highest on the slate (50.5 points) and Washington’s implied team total is the fifth largest on the board (23.5 points). With our projections forecasting Ertz to be less than 5% owned on DraftKings, the veteran is a superb, cheap way to attack this slate-high total.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
