On tap for Week 3 is a 12-game slate, and in this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 3.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Tua Tagovailoa ($7,000) + Tyreek Hill ($9,000)
A Tagovailoa to Hill is a stack that could break the slate, and having exposure to this pairing is a must for GPPs this weekend. Tagovailoa has been outstanding this season, leading the league in the yards per pass (9.5) and ranking fourth in passing touchdowns (4).
The Alabama product is far and away the highest-graded quarterback on PFF and this Sunday presents a juicy matchup against a Broncos defense that is surrendering the sixth most yards per pass (7.2) and is the sixth worst-graded defense on PFF. Via the FantasyLabs Vegas page, the Dolphins boast the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate (27.25 points) and this game’s total is tied for the second-largest on the board (48 points). Tagovailoa has 30 DraftKings point upside in this terrific setting, and pairing him with Hill is a no-brainer.
This season, the speedster has been targeted on an elite 36% of his routes, ranks second in red zone targets (5), and is tied for the most targets over 20 yards (7). With Jaylen Waddle (concussion) unlikely to suit up – he has yet to practice this week as of Thursday – Hill’s usage should grow even further and he should dominate this struggling Broncos’ secondary. Via the Trends tool, Hill is amassing 24.5 DraftKings PPG for the last 10 occasions he has competed in a total of at least 45 points, including four explosions over 30 DraftKings points.
While Hill is expected to be decently popular, Taogvailoa is expected to be only around 7% owned on DraftKings according to the BLITZ projections, and this stack as a whole shouldn’t be rostered by many DFS players. For reference, in the $2.5 Million Fantasy Football Millionaire on DraftKings for Week 1, the pairing of Tagovailoa and Hill was only rostered by 1.1% of the field, despite Hill being the second most owned player on the slate at 30.1% via FantasyLabs’ Contest Dashboard.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Brian Robinson ($5,800)
Robinson has been the Commanders’ featured back this season, handling 82% of the team’s running back carries with 18.5 rushes per game, which ranks fourth among running backs this season. The 24-year-old has seen six red zone carries through the first two games and has also gained a target on 15% of his routes while running a route on 39% of his team’s dropbacks.
Overall, Robinson ranks second in DraftKings points per snap (0.50) among running backs. To put in perspective how impressive this is, the other four backs to round out the top five are Austin Ekeler, Bijan Robinson, Nick Chubb, and Christian McCaffrey.
Given Washington has started their season 2-0, Robinson’s hefty workload should absolutely continue at home this Sunday against the Bills and contrary to popular belief, this is an appealing matchup, with Buffalo’s defense yielding the second most yards per rush (5.3).
His second straight effort of over 20 DraftKings points is the realm of possibilities for Robinson and he is a terrific sleeper for GPPs, with the BLITZ projections forecasting him to be only around 7% owned on DraftKings.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Calvin Ridley ($7,200)
After burning tons of DFS players last week, Ridley is slated for modest ownership on DraftKings according to the BLITZ projections, making this an opportune time to invest in the wideout. Yes, Ridley disappointed with only 5.2 DraftKings points last week, but he still racked up eight targets and this poor performance came against a Chiefs’ defense that is giving up the ninth fewest yards per pass this season (5.8).
Overall, Ridley leads the Jags with a 26.4% target share through the first two weeks and he ranks second in the league in red zone targets (5). After facing a promising Kansas City defense last week, Ridley is in a prime spot to get back on track this Sunday, going against the Texans, who are allowing the seventh most yards per pass (6.9) and are the fifth-worst graded defense on PFF.
Jacksonville carries an implied team total of 26.5 points in this matchup and Ridley owns a strong career average of 17.5 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of at least 25 points (21 games) via the Trends tool.
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NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Jake Ferguson ($3,700)
The Cowboys carry the second-highest implied team total on the slate against the Cardinals this Sunday (27.75 points) and Ferguson is a great, cheap way to gain a share of their offense. With Dalton Schultz out of town, Ferguson has been Dallas’ main tight end this season, garnering a target on 33% of his routes – which ranks second among tight ends – while running a route on 51% of his team’s dropbacks. Ferguson has particularly seen elite usage in scoring territory with seven red zone targets, which is the most in the NFL among all skill players.
This strong red-zone usage for Ferguson is clearly by design and the tight end presents the third-best odds to score a touchdown in this game on the FanDuel Sportsbook (+185), only trailing his teammates Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb. The reward outweighs the risk with Ferguson at this low of a price tag, and to put a cherry on top, the tight end is slated to be only around 3% owned on DraftKings via the BLITZ projections.
