Week 18 presents a huge 13-game slate on DraftKings this Sunday. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 18.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Baker Mayfield ($7,000) + Mike Evans ($8,000) + Jalen McMillan ($5,100) + Juwan Johnson ($3,600)
This trio of Mayfield, Evans, and McMillan was the featured stack in this piece last week, and they went off for 90.4 combined DraftKings points. With the Buccaneers’ playoff hopes on the line this Sunday, we need to go right back to the well and stack this trio again. It’s simple for Tampa Bay: beat the Saints, and the Buccaneers earn a postseason berth. Tampa Bay will be going all ou,t and with a depleted New Orleans team on the other side, the Buccaneers carry the highest implied team total on the slate (28.75 points).
Last week was also a must-win for Tampa Bay, and Mayfield rose to the occasion, erupting for 356 yards and five touchdowns vs. the Panthers (37.6 DraftKings points). The veteran now ranks second in passing touchdowns (38), fifth in yards per pass (8.0,) and fifth in DraftKings points per dropback this season (0.62). It’s truly been an incredible campaign for Mayfield, and he has a strong chance to lead all quarterbacks in scoring against the hopeless Saints. When he faced New Orleans in Week 6, Mayfield was outstanding with 31.9 DraftKings points.
Evans only finished with 5.4 DraftKings points vs. the Saints in Week 6, but it’s a totally different situation this time around. On top of the extra motivation to reach the playoffs, Evans needs five catches and 85 yards to reach a $3 million bonus in his contract. Furthermore, after limiting Evans to only 34 yards in Week 6, Marshon Lattimore is no longer with New Orleans after being traded to the Commanders in November. The former Pro Bowl cornerback and Evans are notorious rivals, and not having to worry about Lattimore’s coverage makes this a great matchup for Evans.
Since returning from a three-game absence in Week 12, Evans is leading the Buccaneers with a 26.4% target share with Chris Godwin (knee) sidelined, including seven targets over 20 yards and five red zone targets during this six-game span. Evans has scored at least 28 DraftKings points in half of these games, and he brings the highest ceiling on the slate among skill players in our projections.
McMillan’s tremendous play continued this past Sunday vs. the Panthers, with the receiver scoring 23.3 DraftKings points. The rookie has now scored at least 16 DraftKings points in four straight games, and he has fully cemented himself as Tampa Bay’s No. 2 receiving option with Godwin on the shelf. During this four-game stretch, McMillan has seen a 19.4% target share – including four red zone targets and three targets over 20 yards – while running a route on a team-high 85% of his team’s dropbacks.
The Buccaneers’ stout rush defense forces opposing offenses to air it out – they are giving up the fewest yards per rush in the NFL over the last weeks (2.3) – and Johnson is the most logical bring-back option for Buccaneers stacks. Last week, the tight end finished with 12.6 DraftKings points vs. the Raiders while leading New Orleans with 10 targets. This was a career-high 29.4% target share for Johnson, and his 83% route rate also marked a season-high. Tampa Bay uses zone coverage at the second-highest rate in the league, and as a result, they are extremely susceptible to tight ends. The Buccaneers are giving up the third-most catches (102) and third-most receiving yards to the position this season (1,077). 78% of Johnson’s receiving yards and 75% of his catches have come against zone this season, and he is one of the best tight end values on the slate in this terrific spot.
While Evans is expected to be chalky, Mayfield is slated for single-digit ownershi,p with most DFS players electing to pay down at quarterback. Plus, McMillan and Johnson are both expected to see minimal ownership, according to our projections. All in all, an extremely low percentage of lineups should include this four-player game stack that has huge upside.
UPDATE: Johnson (knee) has been listed as questionable. If he sits, Foster Moreau ($3,200) will likely start at tight end for the Saints and will be a compelling value in this elite spot vs. the Buccaneers.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Ameer Abdullah ($5,100)
Abdullah drew the start this past Sunday vs. the Saints and was awesome with 20.7 DraftKings points in the 15-point win for the Raiders. Considering the result, the veteran should continue to see the majority of the work this Sunday vs. the Chargers. With the starting job, Abdullah saw 20 carries – including a huge five red zone attempts – while logging 62.3% of the snaps. In the passing game, the back saw a target on 15% of his routes while running a route on 56% of his team’s dropbacks.
Abdullah has been efficient this season, with 4.7 YPC and 0.32 FPTS per snap, and a minimum of 15 touches is a realistic expectation for him this Sunday. The Chargers also are an appealing matchup, with them giving up the third-most yards per rush in the league over the last three weeks (5.4). Additionally, Los Angeles could be in a position to rest their starters if the Steelers beat the Bengals on Saturday, as a Pittsburgh win would lock the Chargers in as the sixth seed in the AFC.
Abdullah is one of the best running back values available in this spot, and with Michael Carter and Blake Corum expected to soak up most of the ownership in this price range, Abdullah is slated to be only around 8% owned on DraftKings, according to our projections.
Editor’s note: Abdullah was listed as doubtful after this article was published. Check the Player Models for updates.
UPDATE: With Abdullah (foot) not expected to play, Alexander Mattison ($5,300) should take on a featured role for the Raiders and has a ton of appeal. The veteran is scoring 0.32 FPTS per snap – which is the same exact average as Abdullah – and is chasing two achievable incentives in his contract. Producing 67 scrimmage yards will earn Mattison $250,000, while eight catches will earn him an additional $125,000. Mattison is amassing 12.1 DraftKings PPG for the six instances he has seen at least 10 touches this season and he should get slightly overlooked, given the amount of appealing cheap backs on the slate and that he plays for a Raiders team that has nothing to play for.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Malik Nabers ($7,100)
Hovering around 12% ownership in our projections, Nabers is a must-have GPP play this weekend. The rookie was unstoppable this past Sunday vs. the Colts, catching seven of his eight targets for 171 yards and two touchdowns. Nabers’ 39.1 DraftKings points broke the slate, and he should close his rookie campaign with another huge outing this Sunday vs. the Eagles.
Nabers leads the league in target share this season (35.3%) and ranks third in targets over 20 yards (27). Plus, he has obtained 11 red zone targets in only 14 games. Nabers will be facing the Eagles this weekend, and while this would usually be a terrible matchup, Philadelphia is locked in as the No. 2 seed and will be resting their starters for this game, so much so that they aren’t even expected to let Saquon Barkley chase the all-time rushing yards record for a season, despite the back only being 101 yards short of reaching the milestone.
Philadelphia clearly has their sights on winning the Super Bowl, and with most of their best defensive players likely playing minimal snaps, Nabers should feast as he looks to set the all-time record for receptions by a rookie in a season. Currently, he trails Brock Bowers by four catches for the record, and with Nabers playing at 1:00 PM EST before Bowers is in action at 4:25 PM EST, Nabers should be on a mission to catch as many passes as possible to give himself a comfortable lead over Bowers.
Even more so than usual, the Giants’ game plan should be based around feeding Nabers, and he is a tremendous target at this $7,100 price tag.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Zach Ertz ($4,000)
Ertz exploded for 25.2 DraftKings points in last week’s win over the Falcons, marking his fourth effort of at least 12 DraftKings points in his last six starts. During this six-game stretch, Ertz has run a route on 73% of his team’s dropbacks and he has handled a 16% target share, including nine red zone targets, which rank fifth among tight ends over this span.
The Commanders are still alive for the No. 5 seed if they can beat the Cowboys this Sunday, and when asked about their motivation this weekend, Washington HC Dan Quinn said, “We’re going to go after it as hard as we can. I think the seeding portion of this is really important, and that’s what we discussed as a team.”
The Commanders carry the fifth-highest implied team total on the slate against the Cowboys (25 points), and in addition to Washington’s motivation as a team, Ertz is chasing some lucrative incentives in his contract.
Ertz will be looking to catch nine passes, finish with 90 receiving yards, or score two touchdowns this Sunday, as any of these feats would earn him an additional $250,000 each. The 90 receiving yards is the most achievable for Ertz and is a realistic possibility against this soft Dallas defense. This season, the Cowboys are allowing the second-most yards per pass (7.4), and to tight ends, they are giving up the sixth-highest completion percentage.
Ertz should be extremely motivated in this crucial contest, and with our projections forecasting him for around 2% ownership on DraftKings, Ertz is a stellar contrarian target.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
