The NFL regular season concludes this week, and for Sunday’s main slate, there are 13 games on the schedule. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 18.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Nick Mullens ($5,100) + Justin Jefferson ($8,500) + Johnny Mundt ($3,000)
While it is going to take more than just a victory from them to make it to the playoffs, the Vikings are still alive for the postseason and should go all out to win this Sunday vs. the Lions. After Jaren Hall struggled this past Sunday, Mullens was solid after replacing him for the second half, and the Vikings have named Mullens as their starter for this do-or-die matchup in Detroit.
In his two full starts this season, Mullens has thrown for multiple touchdowns and scored over 20 DraftKings points in each contest, including a 23.5 DraftKings point effort vs. the same Lions’ team he will face this week. Mullens has struggled with six picks but is averaging an elite 8.8 yards per pass, which ranks third among all of quarterbacks that have logged at least 50 snaps this season. Furthermore, the veteran is producing 0.5 DraftKings per dropback, which is a higher average than the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Matthew Stafford this season.
As for Mullens’ matchup vs. the Lions, Detroit has been a disaster against the pass as of late, allowing the second most yards per pass over the last three weeks (8.8). Plus, while rumors suggest otherwise, the Lions may end up resting some of their best defensive players this Sunday, with the club highly likely to finish as the No.3 seed in the NFC, regardless of whether they win or lose this matchup with Minnesota.
Mullens is a real threat for over 300 yards and multiple scores this weekend and is the No.1 quarterback value on DraftKings according to the BLITZ projections.
With Mullens under center for most of these past three games, Jefferson has seen 10 targets in each of these last three tilts. During this three-game span, the wideout has led the Vikings with a 30% target share, including eight targets over 20 yards and five red-zone targets. Jefferson just went off for 29.1 DraftKings points vs. the Lions two weeks ago and brings an even higher ceiling this Sunday with Minnesota’s season on the line.
While Mullens and Jefferson both figure to be popular options this week, Mundt should come with less ownership, and combining the three players as a stack in the same lineup should naturally set you apart from the field.
With T.J. Hockenson (knee) done for the season, Mundt started at tight end for the Vikings last week and caught four of his seven targets for 39 yards and one touchdown, which came late in the game via Mullens. Overall, Mundt ran a route on 82% of his team’s dropbacks and garnered a target on 23% of those routes, including a pair of red-zone targets. While only a one-game sample, this was very encouraging usage for Mundt which clearly isn’t reflected in his current salary.
Just like Mullens, Mundt is rating as the No.1 value at his position in the BLITZ projections.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Rachaad White ($7,600)
The Bucs secured themselves a trip to the playoffs with a win over the Panthers this Sunday, and White is an elite spend in this situation. Before getting held in check by the Saints last week, the back had scored at least 15 DraftKings points in an impressive 10 consecutive starts, including a 19.6 DraftKings point performance vs. the same Carolina team he faces this Sunday. White has been a true workhorse back this season, ranking third in carries per game (15.8), 16th in red-zone carries (36), and fourth in snap share (78.32%) among running backs. Plus, White has run a route on 71% of his team’s routes and has seen a target on 15% of those routes.
The Panthers have allowed the most touchdowns to running back this season (25), and White is currently a -145 favorite to find the end zone this weekend on the DraftKings Sportsbook. The back is a threat for multiple scores in this great spot and a must-roster, with the BLITZ projections forecasting him to be only around 10% owned on DraftKings.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
DK Metcalf ($7,200)
With the Seahawks playing for their playoff lives – they need a win and a Packers loss to advance – Metcalf is a terrific choice this weekend. The receiver is coming off an 18.6 DraftKings point showing vs. the Steelers and has now recorded at least 15 DraftKings points in five of his last eight starts, including a 40.4 DraftKings point explosion vs. the Cowboys. Since Seattle’s bye in Week 5, Metcalf has led the team with a 24.3% target share. Plus, the wideout has seen 19 red-zone targets and 25 targets over 20 yards, both of which rank second in the NFL over the last 11 weeks.
The Seahawks face the Cardinals this Sunday, who are yielding the third most yards per pass (7.7), and in this spot, Seattle carries the second-highest implied team total on the slate (25 points), via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page. Metcalf is supplying 18.3 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of at least 25 points over the last three seasons (six games) and is only expected to be around 10% owned on DraftKings this Sunday, via the BLITZ projections.
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NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Darren Waller ($4,700)
After almost leading the Giants to a win over the Rams this past Sunday, the Giants have named Tyrod Taylor as their starting quarterback for this Sunday’s regular-season finale vs. the Eagles, which is excellent news for Waller. In three games Taylor has started and completed this season, Waller has been targeted on a team-best 20% of his routes, including two red-zone targets. The ex-Raider has hauled in 81% of those targets and popped off for a season-high 22.8 DraftKings points vs. the Commanders in one of these three full games with Taylor under center.
Waller finds himself in another outstanding spot this weekend, hosting the Eagles. Philadelphia’s main weakness this season has been their defense against the pass, with them allowing 34 passing touchdowns to quarterbacks, which ranks second only to Washington. Especially with the Giants as five-point underdogs, Waller should be very active in this matchup and is a sharp target for GPPs, with him only expected to be rostered by around 4% of the field on DraftKings, via the BLITZ projections.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
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