Sunday’s main slate features eight games, and below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 17.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups for single-entry or 3-entry max tournaments and our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments. Our optimizer allows you to create up to 300 lineups with the click of a button.
The Lineup Optimizer has endless customization opportunities.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Baker Mayfield ($6,900) + Mike Evans ($7,500) + Jalen McMillan ($4,600) + Adam Thielen ($5,700)
The Buccaneers need to win their final two games to stay alive for a Wild Card spot, and coming to town this Sunday is a much improved Panthers team that is coming off a win over the Cardinals. Evident from its slate-high total (48.5 points), this game should be a high-scoring affair, and with plenty at stake, Tampa Bay carries the highest implied team total on the slate (28.25 points).
This is easily the highest total the Buccaneers have seen this season, and Mayfield is a terrific option in this spot. The quarterback ranks eighth in yards per pass (7.7), third in passing touchdowns (34), and third in DraftKings points per dropback this season (0.65). Carolina is allowing the second-most passing touchdowns (28) and the seventh-most yards per pass in the league (6.9), and Mayfield has a ceiling above 30 DraftKings points in our projections.
With the Buccaneers projected for the most points on the slate, double-stacking Mayfield is more viable than ever. As always, Evans is an easy choice when rostering Mayfield. Evans is leading Tampa Bay with a 26.1% target share since returning from a three-game absence – including five targets over 20 yards and three red-zone targets – and he needs 182 yards in his final two games to reach 1,000 yards for the season, which would be his 11th straight 1,000-yard campaign. Evans would receive a $3 million incentive boost to his contract if he reaches this milestone, and he should have an excellent outing vs. the Panthers. When the Buccaneers and Panthers went head-to-head in Week 13, Evans went off for 28.8 DraftKings points.
As for McMillan, the rookie has come alive recently and become the Buccaneers’ clear No. 2 receiver with Chris Godwin (knee) on the shelf. McMillan is amassing 19.0 DraftKings PPG over the last three weeks, including four touchdowns. During this time, the receiver has seen a target on 23% of his routes and run a route on 86% of his team’s dropbacks. McMillan’s salary clearly doesn’t reflect his current role, and he is one of the best values available for this slate at only $4,600.
With the Panthers headed for a negative game script and a pass-heavy approach as eight-point underdogs, Thielen is a great bring-back for Buccaneers stacks. Over the last four weeks, Thielen has supplied 17.9 DraftKings PPG as Bryce Young’s top target. Thielen has led Carolina with a 27.2% target share during this time, including six targets over 20 yards and four red-zone targets. As primarily a slot receiver, the Buccaneers are an elite spot for Thielen. This season, 75% of his routes have come from the slot, and Tampa Bay is giving up the highest completion percentage and most yards per reception to players who line up in the slot (9.1). When he faced the Buccaneers in Week 13, Thielen exposed the division rival for 23.9 DraftKings points.
With Bucky Irving expected to be very chalky from the Buccaneers this week, stacking Tampa Bay’s passing attack naturally will be contrarian. Thielen is slated to be a popular option, but rostering him with Mayfield, Evans, and McMillan is a game stack that should be used by a very low percentage of the field this weekend.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Jerome Ford ($5,900)
With Nick Chubb (knee) inactive this past Sunday vs. the Bengals, Ford posted a season-high 24.1 DraftKings points thanks to a huge workload. The veteran finished with 131 scrimmage yards and a touchdown on 16 touches. Ford logged 80.3% of the snaps and handled 73.3% of the Browns’ running back carries, including four red-zone rushes, all of which set season highs. Per usual, Ford was also effective as a pass catcher, handling a 16% target share while running a route on 69% of his team’s dropbacks.
Relative to his cheap salary, this is an outstanding role for Ford, and while this week’s matchup vs. the Dolphins is mediocre – they are giving up the eighth-fewest yards per rush this season (4.3) – Ford has the potential for another strong outing.
This season, Ford is scoring 0.3 DraftKings points per snap with Chubb inactive, and Ford has recorded at least 15 DraftKings points in three of the seven games Chubb has missed. According to our projections, Ford is forecasted to be only around 1% owned on DraftKings this week.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Josh Downs ($4,800)
Downs is far too cheap – he peaked at $6,400 on DraftKings last month – and with him hovering around 10% ownership in our projections, Downs is one of the best receiver options on the board. Downs and Anthony Richardson’s strong chemistry continued this past Sunday, with Downs finishing with 15.1 DraftKings points vs. the Titans.
The wideout has scored at least 15 DraftKings points in four of the eight games he has played with Richardson starting, and in those eight contests together, Richardson has targeted Downs on a team-high 27% of his routes, including six targets over 20 yards and five red-zone targets.
Up next for Downs is a juicy matchup vs. the Giants, who are yielding the fourth-most yards per pass this season (7.1). New York has been especially vulnerable downfield, with them allowing a 63.2% completion percentage on passes over 20 yards, which is by far the highest mark in the league. Ranking second is the Jaguars at a much lower 48.1%.
Downs has hauled in 66.7% of his targets that have been greater than 20 yards this season, and he and Richardson should connect on at least one deep ball against the Giants. The Colts present the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate (23.75 points), and Downs is criminally underpriced for his upside.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Chig Okonkwo ($3,600)
Okonkwo has been a bright spot for the Titans recently. In their last two games, Okonkwo has finished with 13.9 DraftKings points vs. the Bengals and 19.1 DraftKings points vs. the Colts. Okonkwo saw double-digit targets in both of these games, resulting in a 30% target share, and he has run a route on 81% of his team’s dropbacks during this stretch, which are massive upgrades for the tight end.
In the first 13 games of the season, Okonkwo saw a modest 11.1% target share, and he only ran a route on 63% of his team’s dropbacks. While Okonkwo’s new, larger role has been the primary reason for his success, Mason Rudolph taking over at quarterback for Tennessee over Will Levis has also been a factor.
Rudolph has been under center for essentially six quarters of the Titans’ last eight quarters, and he will get his second straight start this Sunday vs. the Jaguars. Rudolph’s 54.4 quarterback rating this season is far better than Levis’ pathetic 30.1 rating, and going against a terrible Jacksonville defense that is allowing the most yards per pass in the NFL (7.8), Okonkwo is the No. 1 tight end value in projections.
A performance in the 15-20 DraftKings points range is possible for the tight end, and on top of being a great value, Okonkwo is expected to come with single-digit ownership on DraftKings, according to our projections.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
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