With only one game Saturday and no games Monday this week, the Sunday main slate features 13 games. Below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 17.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Jalen Hurts ($8,300) + AJ Brown ($8,600)
Despite their recent struggles, the Eagles are still alive for the No.1 seed in the NFC, and they should make some serious noise in a prime spot vs. the Cardinals this Sunday. Arizona is allowing the fifth most yards per pass attempt this season (7.1), and they are the worst-graded defense on PFF. Philadelphia’s implied team total is the second highest on the slate (28.25 points), and this game’s total is the second largest on the board (48 points), via FantasyLabs Vegas page.
Hurts hasn’t been the most efficient passer this season, ranking 12th in yards per attempt (7.3), but he still ranks third in DraftKings points per dropback among quarterbacks (0.64), thanks to his activity as a rusher. The Alabama product leads all quarterbacks in carries per game (9.8), red zone rushes (40), and rushing touchdowns (15).
This is one of the highest implied team totals Hurts has ever played behind, and when he has played behind an implied team total of at least 25 points this season, the quarterback has responded with 27.2 DraftKings (seven games), via the Trends Tool. To put the icing on the cake, Hurts has been stellar in two career matchups with the Cardinals, amassing 34 DraftKings PPG.
While the results haven’t been perfect as of late, Brown has remained Hurts’ top target, and the two should get back to looking like one of the best quarterback and wide receiver duos in the league in this great spot. Brown leads the entire NFL in target share this season (32.4%) and ranks eighth in targets over 20 yards (27). Additionally, the ex-Titan has seen 15 red zone targets in 15 games.
Brown has topped 20 DraftKings points in six of the eight games the Eagles have presented an implied team of at least 25 points this season, and Philadelphia being 10.5-point favorites also bodes well for the receiver. When the Eagles have been favored by five points or more this season, Brown has generated 24.4 DraftKings PPG (six games).
With the BLITZ projections slating both Hurts and Brown for single-digit ownership this weekend, this stack is an incredible way to gain leverage in GPPs.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Zamir White ($5,100)
Combine White’s affordable salary that clearly doesn’t reflect his current role with the fact that the BLITZ projections are forecasting him for low ownership on DraftKings, and the back is a sharp target this Sunday. Josh Jacobs (quad) has missed the past two games and will likely be inactive again this Sunday – the back has yet to practice this week as of Thursday – leaving White in a featured role.
With Jacobs absent these last two weeks, White has seen 19.5 carries per game – including three red zone attempts – while logging 73.1% of the snaps. The second-year back has also garnered a target on 14% of his routes while running a route on 60% of his team’s dropbacks.
With this immense role, White has recorded 17.5 DraftKings PPG in each of these last two, which notably both have been wins for the Raiders. Las Vegas will now look to win their third in a row vs. the Colts this Sunday, who are a defense that is most vulnerable to running backs, with them allowing the second most rushing touchdowns to the position (15). White is a solid bet to find the end zone in this spot and brings great upside relative to his low price tag.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Deebo Samuel ($7,700)
Samuel was limited to only 9.4 DraftKings points last week, but this came against the Ravens, who are giving up the fewest yards per pass attempt in the NFL (5.0). The wideout now finds himself in the perfect bounce-back spot, going against the Commanders, who are surrendering the second-most yards per pass attempt (7.4) and the second-most touchdowns to receivers (23). Before last week, Samuel was on a tremendous run, providing 30 DraftKings PPG in his previous four starts.
This season, the 27-year-old has seen a 22.5% target share, including 12 red zone targets. Additionally, Samuel has been active as rusher, leading all receivers in carries (33) and red zone rushes (9).
The veteran ranks sixth among receivers in DraftKings points per snap (0.36), and no team in action Sunday carries a higher implied team total than the 49ers (31.25 points), which is the largest implied team total San Francisco has seen this season. Samuel has eclipsed 20 DraftKings points in five of the eight starts he has played behind an implied team total of at least 25 points this season and is an elite GPP play, with the BLITZ projections slating him for single-digit ownership on DraftKings.
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NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Travis Kelce ($7,000)
Kelce has cooled off after a hot start to the season but should get back on track this Sunday against a terrible Bengals defense that is yielding the most yards per pass attempt in the league (7.7). Cincinnati has specifically struggled at defending tight ends, with them allowing the most receiving yards (1,023), the second most catches (98), and fifth most touchdowns to the position (6).
The Chiefs sport the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate (25.5 points) and will be at home, where Kelce has generated 18.2 DraftKings PPG this season compared to 13.4 DraftKings PPG on the road.
This season, the tight ranks second at his position in target share (23%) and ninth in the league in red zone targets among all skill players (19). Kelce has topped 20 DraftKings points in two of his last three meetings with the Bengals, and we should see a vintage performance from the tight end this weekend. Via the BLITZ projections, Kelce is expected to be less than 10% on DraftKings this Sunday.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
