Sunday presents an 11-game slate on DraftKings, and below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 16.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups for single-entry or 3-entry max tournaments and our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments. Our optimizer allows you to create up to 300 lineups with the click of a button.
The Lineup Optimizer has endless customization opportunities.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Editor’s note: this article was written Wednesday night, so ownership projections may change leading up to lock.
Caleb Williams ($5,500) + DJ Moore ($5,700) + Keenan Allen ($5,300) + Jamhyr Gibbs ($7,500)
The Bears host the Lions this Sunday for an NFC North matchup and this game carries the highest total on the slate (48 points). Chicago is a 6.5-point underdog, and Williams should be forced to air it out against this Detroit defense that has faltered as the season winds down.
The Lions are allowing the most yards per pass in the league in their last three games (8.6), and they just lost two of their best defenders for the season last week, in lineman Alim McNeil (knee) and CB Carlton Davis (jaw). Detroit’s defensive struggles almost certainly will continue, and Williams should thrive in this spot again after he posted 26.1 DraftKings points vs. the Lions on Thanksgiving.
While Williams has struggled with efficiency this season, he has thrown for eight touchdowns in his last four starts and he is averaging 4.5 carries per game during this time. The Bears are throwing the ball at the sixth-highest rate in the league with Williams under center this season, and he is producing 3.1 more DraftKings PPG at home than when on the road. Williams has a ceiling near 30 DraftKings points against this decimated Lions defense and is the best quarterback value on the slate.
Double-stacking Williams with Moore and Allen makes a ton of sense in this prime spot. Allen is leading the Bears with a 27% target share, including 18 targets over 20 yards and 12 red zone targets, while Moore’s usage has also been elite, with a 25% target share, 16 targets over 20 yards, and 16 red zone targets. As you can see, Williams’ targets are heavily concentrated on Moore and Allen. As a result, the two receivers positively correlate this season, according to the FantasyLabs Correlations tab. We have seen both Moore and Allen perform well fantasy-wise in the same game numerous times. Notably, in three of the Bears’ last four games, both Moore and Allen have finished with at least 15 DraftKings points apiece.
Just like the Lions, the Bears defense has been awful as of late, allowing the fourth-most yards per pass in their last three games (7.5). The Lions boast the highest implied team total on the slate (27.25 points), and this NFC North matchup should live up to its slate-high total (48 points). Rostering a Lion on the other side of Williams’ stacks is a must, and with David Montgomery (knee) out for the first time this season, Gibbs is the best overall play for this slate.
With Montgomery only available for 30% of the snaps vs. the Bills last week, Gibbs went off for 28.4 DraftKings points while logging a season-high 74.7% of the snaps. Montgomery missed three games last season, and in those contests, Gibbs provided 23.2 DraftKings PPG as the Lions’ featured back. Usage-wise, he logged 72.2% of the snaps and averaged 18.5 carries per game, which was 68.3% of the Lions’ running back carries. Gibbs also saw terrific usage as a receiver, with six catches per game, while garnering a target on 19% of his routes.
In his second season, Gibbs is a much more polished player this year – he ranks fourth among all running backs in DraftKings points per snap at 0.41 – and he is a lock to see 20+ touches no matter the game script this weekend. Gibbs is vastly underpriced for this type of volume, and in our projections, he is the No.1 value on the slate. He brings the second-highest ceiling among all skill players, trailing only Ja’Marr Chase.
While all four of Williams, Moore, Allen, and Gibbs are going to gain attention for DFS this weekend, a very low percentage of lineups should include all four players, and this game stack undoubtedly has slate-winning upside.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Alexander Mattison ($5,400)
The Raiders backfield has been a headache recently, but with Sincere McCormick (ankle) joining Zamir White (quad) on IR this week, Mattison is now the clear top back for Las Vegas. The Raiders have played two games with both McCormick and White inactive this season and on those occasions, Mattison scored 10.1 DraftKings points vs. the Broncos and a season-high 17.5 DraftKings points vs. the Steelers.
Considering Denver and Pittsburgh are two elite defenses that both rank inside the top five in the fewest yards per rush allowed this season, these were impressive finishes for Mattison that were direct products of a compelling role.
With McCormick and White out for those two contests, Mattison averaged 14.5 carries per game – including three red zone attempts – and a 62.4% snap share. Receiving-wise, he ran a route on 49% of his team’s dropbacks and saw a target on 19% of those routes.
With the Raiders as one-point home favorites over the Jaguars this Sunday, Mattison should handle 15-20 touches, and this is a terrific spot, with Jacksonville giving sixth-most yards per rush in their last three games (4.7). Jacksonville has surrendered the second-most touchdowns to running backs this season (17), and Mattison has the potential to easily out-produce his cheap salary.
Plus, with some obvious high-end choices at running back this week, paying down at the position is naturally going to be a contrarian move, and Mattison is only forecasted for around 6% ownership on DraftKings, according to our projections.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Marvin Harrison Jr. ($5,400)
This is a perfect time to buy low on Harrison Jr. After peaking at $7,500 earlier this season, the rookie’s salary has hit a season-low $5,400 on DraftKings. With three single-digit DraftKings point performances in his last four starts, Harrison Jr. is slated for sub-10 % ownership, according to our projections. Most importantly, the receiver gets an elite matchup vs. the Panthers, who are yielding the sixth-most yards per pass this season (7.0).
The Cardinals carry the fifth-highest implied team total (25.75 points), and this game’s total is tied for the second-largest on the slate (47 points). Despite his inconsistent game log, Harrison Jr.’s usage has been great this season, with him handling a 22.1% target share and a team-high 88% route rate. Specifically, Harrison Jr. has been heavily utilized as a deep threat, with him ranking ninth in targets over 20 yards (22) and ninth in air yards (1,255).
Going against a Carolina defense that uses single-high coverage at the second-highest clip in the NFL, this is a perfect spot for Harrison Jr. to connect with Kyler Murray on a few deep passes. The Panthers are allowing the third-highest completion percentage on passes over 20 yards, and 58% of Harrison Jr.’s receiving yards and four of his seven touchdowns have come against single-high coverage.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Brenton Strange ($3,500)
With Evan Engram (shoulder) out and Mac Jones under center this past Sunday vs. the Jets, Strange caught 11 of his 12 targets for 73 yards, resulting in 18.3 DraftKings points, which made him the No.3 tight end for Week 15. As the Jaguars’ starting tight end, which was his job for the rest of the season with Engram on IR, Strange handled a 27.9% target share – including one red zone target – and he ran a route on 84% of his team’s dropbacks.
While we can’t expect another 12 targets, Strange is far too cheap for his current role, and he is rating as the best tight end value on the slate in our projections in this plus matchup vs. the Raiders.
Las Vegas has been very vulnerable to tight ends this season, with them allowing the fourth-most catches (83), the fourth-most receiving yards (908), and the fourth-most touchdowns to the position (seven).
Strange has a ceiling near 20 DraftKings points in our projection. Inn addition to being underpriced, we are projecting Strange for single-digit ownership on DraftKings, making him an outstanding GPP play this weekend.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
