With no more bye weeks, Sunday’s main slate features 12 games, and below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 15.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups for single-entry or 3-entry max tournaments and our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments. Our optimizer allows you to create up to 300 lineups with the click of a button.
The Lineup Optimizer has endless customization opportunities.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Jared Goff ($6,500) + Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,600) + Khalil Shakir ($6,100)
The Lions and Bills will face off in a potential Super Bowl preview in Detroit this Sunday. The total is 54.5 points, the highest the NFL has seen this season. The Lions are only favored by 2.5 points, so this game should be a must-watch shootout.
The Lions sport a huge 28.75-point implied team total, and Goff should flourish on his home turf. The quarterback ranks second in yards per pass (8.7), fifth in pass touchdowns (25,) and 10th in DraftKings points per dropback this season (0.56). Goff has owned dramatic home/away splits throughout his entire career, and this season has been no exception, with him scoring 4.2 DraftKings PPG more at home than on the road.
While the Bills rate as a strong defense for the season, they have been dramatically worse when away from Buffalo. In road games this season, the Bills are allowing 7.7 yards per pass, which would rank second in the NFL if it was their average for the season. Matthew Stafford just carved up Buffalo for 320 yards and two touchdowns last Sunday (23.8 FPTS), and Goff has 30 DraftKings point upside in this spot.
This a great spot for St. Brown and pairing him with Goff is a must. St. Brown leads the Lions with a 26.8% target share this season, including 16 red-zone targets, which ranks seventh in the NFL. In addition to the Bills’ defensive road struggles, Buffalo uses zone coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Over the last two seasons, St. Brown ranks second in receiving yards against zone, only trailing Tyreek Hill. St. Brown’s skillset is perfect for DraftKings full PPR scoring system – he ranks fourth in the league in catches this season – and he should score nothing less than 20 DraftKings points in this incredible environment.
Given this game presents the highest total the league has seen this season, rostering a Bills player as bring back on Lions stacks is a necessity and Shakir is the best target. The wideout is fresh off a season-best 24.6 DraftKings points vs. the Rams, and Shakir is leading Buffalo in target share (23.2%) and route rate this season (75%). The receiver has seen seven red-zone targets and seven targets over 20 yards in his 12 games. Shakir has been the Bills most efficient pass catcher against man coverage this season, which is crucial, with Detroit leading the NFL in man coverage rate. Against man coverage this season, Shakir has caught 72% of his targets, and two of his three touchdowns have come against this type of coverage.
Ownership-wise, St. Brown and Shakir are hovering around 10% in our projections, and Goff is slated to be less than 5% owned on DraftKings. Minimal lineups should include all three of these players, and this game stack is an elite GPP strategy for Week 15.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Brian Robinson Jr. ($6,200)
Everything is aligning for Robinson Jr. to have one of his best outings of the season this weekend. Austin Ekeler (concussion) remains out, and with the veteran missing, Robinson Jr. takes on a featured role as the Commanders’ main back. Robinson Jr. has scored at least 20 DraftKings points in both of the games he has played with Ekeler inactive and in those contests, Robinson Jr. has garnered 18.5 carries per game – including six red-zone carries – and he has logged 55% of the snaps. As a receiver, Robinson Jr. has seen a target on 14% of his routes, and he has run a route on 40% of his team’s dropbacks with Ekeler sidelined.
Robinson Jr.’s matchup is also outstanding, going against a Saints defense that is yielding the most yards per rush this season (5.0). The Commanders carry a 25.5-point implied team, and they are favored by 7.5 points. With Derek Carr (concussion/hand) expected to be out for New Orleans, Washington should lead for most of this contest, and they should rely on their ground game.
Robinson has the potential to see 20+ touches in this perfect situation. Not only is he too cheap, but according to our projections, the back is slated for single-digit ownership on DraftKings. Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle will absorb most of the ownership in the $6K range. Robinson Jr. has a similar upside to those two backs and is a terrific contrarian play.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Adam Thielen ($5,400)
After seeing limited snaps in his first game back off IR, Thielen has been the Panthers’ undisputed No.1 receiver the last two weeks, scoring at least 22 DraftKings points in both of these games. The veteran has led Carolina with a 28.4% target share – including three red-zone targets and four targets over 20 yards – while running a route on 82% of his team’s dropbacks.
Thielen now faces a Cowboys defense that is yielding the second-most yards per pass this season (7.4). The Panthers have a 23-point implied team total, the highest they have seen this season.
Byrce Young has been making major strides under center for Carolina recently, and he and Thielen should thrive in this juicy spot. Theilen is definitely capable of a third straight effort over 20 DraftKings points. He is one of the best GPP options on the slate, and our projections forecast him for single-digit ownership on DraftKings.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Jake Ferguson ($3,800)
Ferguson’s salary on DraftKings has hit a season low, and he should come with low ownership after last week’s quiet 6.3 DraftKings point performance vs. the Bengals. This was the tight end’s first game after missing two in a row due to a concussion, and Ferguson’s underlying usage was encouraging in his return despite the modest fantasy score.
The veteran handled a 19.4% target share, and he ran a route on 80% of his team’s dropbacks. Ferguson has now seen a target on 20% of his routes in the two full games he has played with Cooper Rush as his quarterback.
For this Sunday, Ferguson is in a perfect spot to get back on track vs. a Panthers defense that is yielding the seventh-most yards per pass (7.0). To tight ends, Carolina is surrendering the most touchdowns (10) and the most plays of 15 yards or greater (21).
The Cowboys should be forced to air it out as three-point underdogs for this tilt, and Ferguson should be one of the primary beneficiaries, potentially with a season-best outing. As a mini game stack, rostering Ferguson and Thielen in the same lineup is a viable move for GPPs this weekend that brings great upside relative to its low cost.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
