The Week 15 main slate features 10 games, and below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 15.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Matthew Stafford ($6,000) + Cooper Kupp ($7,800)
While both players aren’t going to be low owned, Stafford to Kupp shouldn’t be a very popular stack, as most DFS players are focusing on Kyren Williams to attack the Cardinals this Sunday. Kyren is expected to be one of the most owned players on the slate, according to the BLITZ projections.
Los Angeles is hosting the Commanders, and while this is a good spot for Williams, it is an even better spot for the Rams’ passing attack. Washington has allowed the most yards per pass attempt this season (7.7), and they have given up the most passing touchdowns in the league to quarterbacks (30). In fact, in their last three games, the Commanders have allowed an absurd 9.8 yards per pass attempt and nine passing touchdowns — including three to the lowly Tommy DeVito — while recording zero interceptions.
Stafford has been a touchdown machine as of late, throwing for at least three touchdowns in three straight starts, and should continue this streak in this gorgeous spot vs. the Commanders. Via the FantasyLabs’ Vegas page, the Rams carry the second-highest implied team total on the slate (28.5 points), and this game’s total is tied for the largest on the board (50.5 points). For the last five times he has played behind an implied team total of at least 28 points, Stafford is producing 23.5 DraftKings PPG.
Kupp has found the paydirt in back-to-back games and has seen a 25% target share since making his season debut in Week 5. Since then, the wideout has led the Rams with 11 red zone targets and 12 targets over 20 yards.
As previously mentioned, this game’s total is the highest on the slate (50.5 points), and in totals of 50 points or higher with Stafford as his quarterback, Kupp is supplying 27.4 DraftKings PPG (10 games), via the Trends Tool.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
James Cook ($6,300)
Cook shined in the Bills’ win over the Chiefs last Sunday, recording a season-high 25.1 DraftKings points, marking his fourth consecutive performance of at least 16 DraftKings points. This season, Cook has handled 59.5% of Buffalo’s running back carries – including 19 red zone attempts – while logging 52.5% of his team’s snaps in his 13 starts.
The versatile back has also run route on 46% of the Bills’ dropbacks and has seen a target on 18% of those routes. Cook ranks ninth in DraftKings points per snap among running backs (0.4) and is competing in an elite setting vs. the Cowboys this Sunday. This potential shootout is tied for the highest total on the slate (50.5 points), and Buffalo’s implied team total is the third largest on the board (26.75 points).
The Bills are also two-point home favorites, which could translate into more volume in for Cook. He is amassing 16 DraftKings PPG for the seven times he has competed in a total of at least 45 points this season and is expected to get overlooked, with many other backs gaining more attention in this price range. According to the BLITZ projections, Cook is forecasted for single-digit ownership on DraftKings this week.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Amari Cooper ($6,000)
In his first full game with Joe Flacco under center this past Sunday, Cooper racked up a season-high 14 targets. Overall, the wideout was targeted on a team-high 32% of his routes. Cooper only hauled in half of his targets for 13.7 DraftKings points but should improve in his second start with Flacco as his quarterback this weekend vs. the Bears.
Chicago’s stout run defense makes them a better matchup to attack through the air, and the Bears are yielding the seventh most touchdowns to wide receivers this season (13).
Plus, Cooper gets the luxury of playing on his home turf, which is great news for the receiver. Cooper has topped 27 DraftKings points twice this season, both of which came at home. The 29-year-old is averaging 5.0 more DraftKings PPG at home for his career and is very underpriced for the ceiling he brings with a solid passer in Flacco at the helm.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Tucker Kraft ($3,000)
At this low price and with BLITZ projections forecasting him for single-digit ownership, it’s hard not to love Kraft this week. Since losing Luke Musgrave (kidney) to IR in Week 11, Kraft has been the Packers’ top tight end. The 23-year-old has run a route on 84% of his team’s dropbacks and has garnered a target on 13% of those routes, including three red zone targets.
With this role, Kraft is providing 9.0 DraftKings PPG. While this isn’t anything eye-popping, this is a solid return relative to his low salary, and Kraft draws a terrific matchup this weekend vs. the Buccaneers, who are surrendering the third most yards per pass attempt (7.2) and fifth most catches to tight ends this season (74).
With the Packers sporting a healthy implied team total of 22.5 points, Musgrave is one of the best tight end values on the slate.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
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