Week 14 delivers a 10-game slate on DraftKings on Sunday, and below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 14.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups for single-entry or 3-entry max tournaments and our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments. Our optimizer allows you to create up to 300 lineups with the click of a button.
The Lineup Optimizer has endless customization opportunities.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Sam Darnold ($6,100) + Justin Jefferson ($7,800) + Drake London ($6,400)
The Vikings vs. Falcons is the best game to stack in Week 14. This contest’s total ranks fourth on the slate (45.5 points), and Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson should flourish on their home turf. Minnesota’s implied team total is the fourth-highest on the slate (25.5 points) and Atlanta’s defense has been pathetic as of late, giving up the fifth-most yards per pass in the league over their last three games (8.5).
Darnold has been tremendous in his first season as a Viking, ranking fifth in yards per pass (8.2) and fourth in passing touchdowns (23). The veteran ranks 11th in DraftKings points per dropback (0.55), and Darnold has eclipsed 20 DraftKings points in half his starts this season.
As for Jefferson, he ranks fifth in the NFL in target share (29.6%), 11th in red zone targets (14,) and 17th in targets over 20 yards (16). Jefferson ranks fourth among receivers in DraftKings PPG (17.,7), and the Falcons have used zone coverage at the fifth-highest clip this season, making this a perfect spot for Jefferson. With Darnold as his quarterback this season, Jefferson has produced the second-most receiving yards against zone in the NFL. Plus, this game taking place in Minnesota is a massive boost for the wideout. For his career, Jefferson is scoring 23.8 DraftKings PPG at home, which is a significant 6.4 DraftKings PPG more than when he is on the road.
Rostering Drake London as a bring-back for Vikings stacks is a no-brainer. The receiver hasn’t been this cheap on DraftKings in seven games, and it isn’t due to poor results, as London has recorded at least 17 DraftKings points in two of his last three games. This season, London is leading the Falcons in target share (27.1%), and his 19 red-zone targets rank second only to Ja’Marr Chase. London has also obtained 10 targets over 20 yards, and this Vikings defense he is facing has given up the third-most passing plays over 15 yards this season (77). Furthermore, no defense in the league has used split-safety coverage more than Minnesota, and London ranks fifth in the NFL in receiving yards against split-safety this season.
All three of Darnold, Jefferson, and London are in outstanding positions to excel, and while these three players are all going to be popular options, very few lineups should feature this trio together.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Kyren Williams ($7,300)
With Williams slated to be only around 5% owned on DraftKings according to our projections, he is the best contrarian play at running back for this slate. The reason for Williams’ low expected ownership is that the Rams are 3.5-point underdogs vs. the Bills, so most are expecting a negative game flow for Los Angeles. While this is a possibility, this game’s total is the highest on the slate by a notable 3.5 points (49.5 points), and the bottom line is that Williams has been one of the most reliable backs in fantasy football this season, even when the Rams have been underdogs. Williams ranks ninth among running backs in DraftKings PPG (17.3), and for the six occasions the Rams have been an underdog this season, Williams has great with 20.1 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.
Williams’ success can be attributed to his elite workload, with him ranking first in snap rate (86.8%), second in carries per game (18.5), and second in red-zone carries among running backs (45). Williams has scored 12 touchdowns in 12 games, and this is also an enticing matchup for him vs. Buffalo, as the Bills are a much easier defense to attack on the ground than through the air.
While Buffalo is allowing the fourth-fewest yards per pass (6.1), they are giving up the third-most yards per rush this season (4.9). Williams could have a huge day on the ground in this spot, and he is a sharp way to attack this slate-high total between the Rams and Bills, with most DFS players looking elsewhere at running back this week.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
George Pickens ($6,800)
Hovering around 10% ownership in our projections, Pickens is a mouthwatering GPP play. The receiver is leading the Steelers with a 27.7% target share this season. Many of his targets have been extremely valuable, with Pickens ranking first in targets over 20 yards (25) and sixth in red-zone targets among skill players (16).
Ever since Russell Wilson took over at quarterback for the Steelers six games ago, Pickens has recorded at least 16 DraftKings points four times and this duo is in a beautiful spot this Sunday vs. the Browns. Following their bye in Week 10, Cleveland has surrendered the third-most yards per pass in the NFL (8.6). Plus, the Browns are using single-high coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the league this season and Pickens has generated the sixth-most receiving yards against this type of coverage.
Pittsburgh’s implied team total is the sixth-highest on the slate (24.75 points), and Pickens’ ceiling in our NFL models is the fourth-highest among all skill players, but he is only the 16th most expensive skill player on DraftKings.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Jonnu Smith ($5,300)
At this affordable salary and with him hovering around 10% ownership in our projections, Smith is an incredible option. The Dolphins carry the fifth-highest implied team total, facing a crumbling Jets team (25.25 points), and Smith has become not just one of the best fantasy tight ends in the league but one of the best fantasy players overall.
With Miami’s passing game struggling compared to last season, they decided to give Smith a larger role three weeks ago, and the veteran hasn’t looked back, with Smith producing 26.4 DraftKings PPG over the last three weeks, making him the No.3 fantasy scorer among all skill players during this stretch. These tremendous results are no fluke either, as Smith is leading the Dolphins with a 24.8% target share and seven red-zone targets while running a route on 82% of his team’s dropbacks during this time frame. Before this, Smith was handling a much smaller role, with a 16.2% target share, a 54% route rate, and only three red-zone targets in his first nine games of the season.
Following this recent surge, Smith now ranks second in DraftKings points per snap among tight ends this season, trailing only Taysom Hill, who is not a traditional tight end, as he also sees work as a rusher and passer.
There is no way we see Smith this cheap for the rest of the season.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
