The Week 14 main slate features 11 games, and below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 14.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Justin Fields ($6,800) + DJ Moore ($6,500)
Fields struggled in Minnesota in his last start but should bounce back this weekend. The quarterback will be back at home and is facing a Lions defense that has been a disaster as of late. Over the last four weeks, Detroit is allowing 8.0 yards per pass attempt – which would be the most in the league if it was their average for the season – and 30.25 PPG to opposing offenses.
This season, Fields ranks 13th in yards per pass (7.3), second in carries per game (9.6), and fourth in red zone carries among quarterbacks (9.6). Overall, the dual-threat quarterback ranks sixth in DraftKings points per dropback (0.57).
Fields just posted 24.16 DraftKings points vs. the Lions in Week 11 and is amassing 29.6 DraftKings PPG across three matchups against them over the last two seasons. Plus, the Bears carry an implied team total of 20 points this Sunday, and when Fields has been at home and playing behind an implied team total of at least 20 points over the last two seasons, the quarterback is generating 24.5 DraftKings PPG (eight games), via the Trends tool.
As for Moore, the wideout has been excellent with Fields back under center for their last two games, producing 24 DraftKings PPG. Overall, in the eight games Moore has played with Fields starting this season, the receiver has recorded at least 19 DraftKings points five times. In those games, Moore has led the Bears with a 33% target share and has garnered 18 targets over 20 yards, putting him at an elite 2.5 per game, which would rank third in the NFL if it was Moore’s average for the season.
Fields and Moore are both only slated to be around 10% owned on DraftKings, according to the BLITZ projections, and this duo is a tremendous stack for GPPs.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Alvin Kamara ($8,200)
With most DFS players focusing on mid-tier running backs this week, Kamara is expected to get overlooked – the BLITZ projections are forecasting him to be only around 10% owned on DraftKings – making this a great time to attack the back.
Kamara is coming off a 28.9 DraftKings point showing vs. the Lions last week and is in a terrific spot to keep dominating against the Panthers, who are allowing the fourth most yards (1,321 yards) and the most rushing touchdowns to running backs (17). In fact, Carolina has given up four more rushing touchdowns to running backs than any other defense this season.
Kamara ranks seventh in carries per game (14.8), fourth in red zone rushes per game (3), and ninth in snap rate among running backs (66.9%). As always, the back has also been a great weapon in the passing game, leading all running backs in target share (20.3%), including seven red zone targets in his eight starts.
The Saints are 5.5-point home favorites over the Panthers this Sunday, and for his career, Kamara is amassing 20.8 DraftKings PPG as a home favorite (44 games), via the Trends Tool.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Ja’Marr Chase ($7,600)
Chase and Jake Browning showed some serious chemistry in the Bengals’ win over the Jags last Monday night. Chase hauled in 11 of his team-high 12 targets for 149 yards and a touchdown, resulting in 34.62 DraftKings points. Despite losing Joe Burrow (wrist), Chase has continued to see elite usage with Browning starting the past two games, leading Cincinnati with a 29.5% target share – including three red zone targets – which is actually a slight increase from the target share Chase saw in his starts with Burrow this season.
Chase ranks fifth among receivers in DraftKings PPG this season (20.7) and has impressively scored over 26 DraftKings points in five of his 12 starts. For this Sunday, the LSU product is at home and facing a Colts’ defense that is the 12th worst-graded defense on PFF.
This contest’s total is the third highest on the slate (44 points), and the Bengals carry a healthy implied team total of 22 points, via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page. Chase owns a career average of 22.1 DraftKings PPG when competing on his home turf and is an awesome contrarian option, with the BLITZ projections forecasting him for single-digit ownership on DraftKings.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Gerald Everett ($3,400)
With Everett expected to see little attention on DraftKings this Sunday – the BLITZ projections are slating him for 3% ownership – he is a very appealing punt. This season, the veteran has garnered a target on 17% of his routes and has seen seven red zone targets in his 10 starts. Everett has scored a touchdown in three of his last six games, and this is a juicy spot for him vs. the Broncos.
Denver is the second worst-graded defense on PFF, and they are giving up the third most yards per pass attempt (7.2). The Broncos have also been very susceptible to tight ends, allowing the fourth most receptions (74), the second most yards (852), and third most touchdowns to the position (6). The Chargers boast the sixth-largest implied team total on the board (23.25 points), and Everett found the paydirt when these two clubs met last season.
This is the lowest the tight end has been priced on DraftKings this season, and Everett is a perfect pivot off the chalky Isaiah Likely ($3,500), who is projected to be the most rostered tight on the slate according to the BLITZ projections.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
