Week 13 presents a 10-game slate on DraftKings on Sunday, and below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 13.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups for single-entry or 3-entry max tournaments and our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments. Our optimizer allows you to create up to 300 lineups with the click of a button.
The Lineup Optimizer has endless customization opportunities.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Baker Mayfield ($6,600) + Mike Evans ($6,700) + Adam Thielen ($4,800)
The Buccaneers and their pass-heavy attack get one of the best matchups in the NFL in the Panthers this Sunday. Tampa Bay ranks fifth in pass rate over expectation, and Carolina is yielding the fourth-most yards per pass (7.3) and third-most passing touchdowns this season (21). The Buccaneers boast the second-highest implied team total on the slate (26 points), and this game’s total is the fifth-largest on the board (46.5 points).
Baker Mayfield is having a strong season, averaging a career-high 7.5 yards per pass and throwing for 24 touchdowns – which ranks third in the NFL – to nine interceptions. The veteran ranks fifth among quarterbacks in DraftKings points per dropback (0.59), and the Buccaneers’ 26-point implied team total for this Sunday is the highest total Mayfield has played behind in Tampa Bay. The quarterback has played with an implied team total of at least 23 points six times in a Buccaneers jersey, and Mayfield has gone off for at least 29 DraftKings points in four of those tilts.
With Chris Godwin (knee) done for the season, Mike Evans is Mayfield’s clear No. 1 option. Evans returned from a three-game absence due to a hamstring injury last week and saw a target on 29% of his routes in his first game this season with Godwin inactive. Evans only ran a route on 66% of his team’s dropbacks, but this was a combination of Tampa Bay beating the Giants by 23 points and this being Evans’ first game in nearly a month. The star wideout was a full participant in practice this Wednesday, and Evans should get back to being a full-time player this Sunday. The receiver has multiple touchdown upside in this spot, and this is the cheapest Evans has been on DraftKings this season.
Adam Thielen makes the most sense as a bring-back option for Buccaneers stacks. The veteran returned from a seven-game absence due to a hamstring injury this past week and caught three of his four targets for 57 yards vs. the Chiefs (8.7 DraftKings points). Coming off the lengthy absence, Thielen ran a route on 69% of his team’s dropbacks, and he was targeted on 14% of those routes, but these numbers are surely going to grow this Sunday in Thielen’s second game.
Diontae Johnson is no longer with the Panthers after being traded to the Ravens in October and with Johnson with the Steelers last season, Thielen was Carolina’s top receiver, leading the team with a 25.6% target share and 14.1 DraftKings PPG. Plus, Ja’Tavion Sanders (neck) and Jalen Coker (quad) are both not expected to play for Carolina, which should translate into more targets and a slot-heavy role for Thielen. The Buccaneers use zone coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, and with the Panthers likely forced to air it out as 5.5-point underdogs, Thielen has the potential to destroy his cheap salary.
Evans is expected to see decent ownership on DraftKings, according to our projections, but Mayfield is hovering around 5%, and Thielen is slated for essentially no ownership. As a result, very few lineups should include this trio. This is an excellent contrarian game stack to take a chance on that won’t break the bank.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Najee Harris ($6,000)
Harris is a strong mid-tier target that is expected to be way overlooked this week – our projections are slating him to be less than 5% owned on DraftKings. As the Steelers’ top back this season, Harris ranks sixth at his position in carries per game (17.4) and red-zone carries (36), while logging 54.4% of the snaps. As a receiver, Harris has been targeted on 20% of his routes – including two red-zone targets – while running a route on 42% of his team’s dropbacks.
Despite seeing 38 red-zone opportunities this season, Harris has only found the end zone three times. The veteran is clearly due for some positive regression in the scoring department, and this Sunday’s matchup vs. the Bengals is exactly what the doctor ordered, with Cincinnati yielding the fifth-most rushing touchdowns to backs this season (11). Harris is a -110 favorite on the DraftKings Sportsbook to score a touchdown in this contest, and this game’s total is tied for the third-highest on the slate (47.5 points). Harris has a ceiling over 20 DraftKings points in this divisional matchup, and he is a great way to diversify yourself at running back this week.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
A.J. Brown ($8,300)
The Eagles and Ravens go head-to-head in Baltimore this Sunday, and having exposure to this potential Super Bowl preview is a must. This game’s total is the highest by 2.5 points (51.5 points), and Brown is the top skill player to attack in this likely shootout, with DeVonta Smith (hamstring) trending towards missing his second straight game. The receiver missed practice again this Wednesday (limited Thursday), and Smith making a quick recovery to play this weekend feels unrealistic with this being a hamstring injury. Making his first start with Smith inactive this past Sunday, Brown posted 25.9 DraftKings points vs. the Rams while leading the Eagles with a huge 36.8% target share.
If you didn’t know by now, the Ravens are a pass-funnel defense that forces you to attack them through the air. This season, Baltimore is giving up the fewest yards per rush (3.5) but the eighth-most yards per pass (7.1). Add in that the Eagles are three-point underdogs for this tilt, and we should see Philadelphia rely on their passing attack far more than usual this Sunday, giving Brown a great chance to go off. The Ravens are allowing the second-most touchdowns to receivers (16), and while it’s a limited sample of only three games, Brown is amassing 23.9 DraftKings PPG when competing in a total of 50 points or greater over the last two seasons, via the Trends Tool.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Kyle Pitts ($4,600)
Coming off his bye week and three straight single-digit DraftKings point performances, nobody is going to roster Pitts this week – our projections are slating him to be less than 1% owned on DraftKings – and he is a tremendous gamble for GPPs. Pitts has been targeted on 17% of his routes this season – including six targets over 20 yards and five red-zone targets – and he is facing a Chargers defense that uses zone coverage at the sixth-highest rate this season.
Pitts’ splits against zone have been staggering the last two seasons, with 84% of his catches, 80% of his receiving yards, and five of his six touchdowns coming against this type of coverage. To put this in perspective, Pitts has scored over 15 DraftKings points twice this season, and both of these outings came against the Buccaneers, who lead the league in zone usage. This Sunday’s matchup with the Chargers is tied for the third-highest total on the slate (47.5 points), and Pitts should have one of his best performances of the season in this optimal spot.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
