Sunday’s main slate for Week 13 features 10 games, and below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 13.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Brock Purdy ($6,100) + Brandon Aiyuk ($7,200)
Passing attacks have flourished against the Eagles this season, and with Prudy and Aiyuk slated to come with single-digit ownership on DraftKings against Philadelphia this Sunday – via the BLITZ projections – this pairing is one of the best GPP stacks of the week. While stout against the run, allowing only two total touchdowns to running backs this season, the Eagles have been putrid against the pass, allowing the second most passing touchdowns to quarterbacks (23) and the second most touchdowns to receivers (17).
This matchup between the NFC’s two best teams carries the second highest total on the slate (47.5 points) – which is the highest total the 49ers have competed in this season – and San Francisco’s implied team total is the fourth largest on the board (25 points), via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page.
Purdy has been incredibly efficient this season, leading all quarterbacks in yards per pass (9.4), while throwing 19 touchdowns to only six interceptions. The 23-year-old ranks third in DraftKings points per dropback (0.63) and has recorded at least 23 DraftKings points in three of his past four starts.
Aiyuk has been Purdy’s top target this season, leading the 49ers with a 24.7% target share. Purdy has especially looked Aiyuk’s way downfield, with the wideout seeing 14 targets over 20 yards and with him owning a 15.1 aDOT. Aiyuk has found the paydirt in three straight games and should disappoint against this soft Eagles secondary.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Kyren Williams ($7,200)
Williams broke the slate with a 41.4 DraftKings point showing in his return from a four-game absence last week but isn’t expected to crack double-digit ownership on DraftKings this Sunday, via the BLITZ projections. The reason being is his matchup with the Browns, but contrary to popular belief, this is a much better spot for Williams than most believe. Cleveland is much more susceptible to the run than the pass, and over the last three weeks, they have yielded the ninth-highest yards per rush (5.0). Additionally, Cleveland has allowed a running back to score a touchdown in three straight games.
When healthy this season, Williams has seen an elite workload, ranking third among running backs in snap share (79.1%), fifth in carries per game (16.1), and fourth in red zone rushes per game (3.7). Plus, in the seven games the 23-year-old has played this season, Williams has run a route on 73% of his team’s dropbacks and has seen a target on 14% of those routes, including nine red zone targets.
Thanks to this incredible role, he is generating 22.6 DraftKings PPG this season, which ranks second only to Christian McCaffrey among running backs. The Rams are 3.5-point home favorites this weekend, and for the three times Williams has played as a favorite this season, the rookie has been simply incredible with 32.3 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.
No matter the matchup, he shouldn’t cost less than $8K considering his production, and with most DFS players looking elsewhere this week, the back is arguably the best GPP play on the board.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Josh Downs ($5,100)
After being severely limited due to a knee injury in the Colts’ final two games before their bye in Week 11, Downs returned to a full-time role this past Sunday. The receiver ran a route on 80% of his team’s dropbacks and saw a target on 36% of those routes, resulting in a career-high 13 targets for Downs. The rookie only finished with 9.3 DraftKings points but should redeem himself this weekend vs. the Titans, who are yielding the sixth most yards per pass (7.1).
Excluding those two games before Indianapolis’ bye in which Downs didn’t see over 25% of the snaps, the 22-year-old is amassing 15.4 DraftKings PPG in the four full games he has played with Gardner Minshew starting at quarterback.
Downs is simply too cheap for being back to full strength and is only expected to be around 10% on DraftKings this Sunday, via the BLITZ projections.
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Pat Freiermuth ($4,300)
Under new offensive coordinator Eddie Faulkner last week, the Steelers’ offense produced over 400 yards for the first time in 58 games and Freiermuth was the main reason why. The tight end caught nine of his team-high 11 targets for a career-high 120 yards, resulting in 24 DraftKings points in the win over the Bengals. Freiermuth saw a target on an eyepopping 48% of his routes while running a route on 62% of his team’s dropbacks. This was just Freiermuth’s second start back from a four-game absence due to a hamstring injury, and his route rate should increase this Sunday for the third consecutive week.
Hopefully, last Sunday was a clear sign the Steelers plan to feature Friermuth going forward. For this Sunday, he will be facing a Cardinals defense that is the third worst graded defense on PFF and is surrendering the eight most yards per pass this season (7.0). The Steelers carry a season-high implied team total of 23.25 points, and Freiermuth is severely underpriced for his upside in this matchup. To put a cherry on top, the BLITZ projections are forecasting Freiermuth to be less than 5% owned on DraftKings.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
