Week 12 presents a 10-game slate on DraftKings, and below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 12.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Jayden Daniels ($7,000) + Terry McLaurin ($6,800) + Luke Schoonmaker ($2,500)
After drawing back-to-back terrible matchups in the Steelers and Eagles, the Commanders are in a gorgeous spot this Sunday vs. the Cowboys. Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are two of the three highest-graded defenses on PFF this season, while Dallas is the second-worst. The Cowboys are giving up the second-most yards per pass (7.8), and Washington’s implied team total is the second-highest on the slate (27.5 points). Plus, this game’s total is the fifth-highest on the board (45 points).
Before scoring under 15 DraftKings points in these past two ugly matchups, Daniels was extremely consistent, scoring at least 19 DraftKings points in seven of the eight games he had started and completed. As a passer, the rookie ranks eighth in yards per pass (8.0), and he has thrown 10 touchdowns to just three interceptions. As a rusher, Daniels ranks third in carries per game (8.4) and second in red-zone carries among running backs (23). His dual-threat ability gives him a massive ceiling every week, and Daniels could have his best outing of the season against the hopeless Cowboys.
McLaurin struggled mightily last week vs. the Eagles, with a season-low 2.0 DraftKings points, but this absolutely is forgivable considering Philadelphia is giving up the fewest yards per pass in the NFL (5.5). The receiver is leading the Commanders with a 22.2% target share this season, including eight red-zone targets and 18 targets over 20 yards, which ranks sixth in the league. McLaurin ranks 15th in aDOT (14.9), and he has scored 15 DraftKings points or higher in nine of his 11 starts, including three efforts over 20 DraftKings points. Daniels and McLaurin should connect on a few deep balls vs. the Cowboys, and the sky is the limit for this pairing in this elite spot.
With Jake Ferguson (concussion) unlikely to play and Schoonmaker priced at the bare minimum, he is an excellent bring-back option for Daniels to McLaurin stacks. With Ferguson only available for seven snaps last week, Schoonmaker caught six of his 10 targets for 56 yards vs. the Texans (11.6 DraftKings points). The tight end saw a target on a team-best 32% of his routes while running a route on 50% of his team’s dropbacks. Schoonmaker’s route rate will naturally increase with Ferguson inactive this Sunday, and Cooper Rush should continue to rely on Schoonmaker as his safety blanket as they try to keep pace with the Commanders. Dallas led the NFL in pass rate during their 34-10 blowout loss to Houston last week, and with them as 10.5-point underdogs vs. the Commanders this Sunday, another pass-heavy game plan is inevitable for the Cowboys, giving Schoonmaker a great chance to produce strong numbers as their offense’s top tight end.
Ownership wise, Daniels and Schoonmaker are expected to be some of the most popular options at their position, but McLaurin is expected to get way overlooked, with our projections slating him to be less than 5% owned on DraftKings. All in all, this three-player game stack should be deployed by very few and is a terrific move for GPPs.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
David Montgomery ($6,700)
Montgomery is getting lost in the shuffle this week – he is projected to be around 6% owned on DraftKings according to our projections – and is a terrific way to attack the Lions. Visiting the Colts, Detroit presents the highest implied team total on the slate by nearly two points (29.5 points). Furthermore, the Lions are 7.5-point favorites, which is always a plus for a running back. In a similar situation this past Sunday, when the Lions were 13.5-point favorites over the Jaguars, Montgomery went off for a season-best 24.5 DraftKings points.
The veteran is averaging 13.7 carries per game this season and Montgomery has seen elite usage in scoring territory, with him ranking fourth in the NFL in red-zone rushes (35), which has resulted in 10 rushing touchdowns for the back. Montgomery is producing a terrific 0.61 DraftKings points per snap, which is tied with Derrick Henry for the best among all running backs this season. The Colts are yielding the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs this season (1,266), and Montgomery is a -195 favorite on the DraftKings Sportsbook to score a touchdown this Sunday. Lastly, for the seven occasions the Lions have been favorited and carried an implied team total of at least 28 points the last two seasons, Montgomery is producing a robust 17.9 DraftKings PPG via the Trends Tool.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Deandre Hopkins ($5,400)
Hopkins has been an inconsistent fantasy asset thus far with the Chiefs, but the receiver is a gamble worth embracing against the Panthers this Sunday. Our projections are forecasting Hopkins to be only 5% owned on DraftKings and Carolina is arguably the best possible matchup for him. This season, the Panthers are the worst-graded defense on PFF, and they are giving up the fourth-most yards per pass (7.4). Plus, Carolina uses zone coverage at the eighth-highest clip in the league, and 77% of Hopkins’ receiving yards, 76% of his receptions, and four of his seven touchdowns have come against zone the last two seasons.
Hopkins has obtained a target on 21% of his routes since joining Kansas City, which ranks second only to Travis Kelce during this time. Hopkins has seen three red-zone targets and two targets over 20 yards in only four games with the Chiefs, and he is a compelling, cheap to gain a piece of this Kansas City offense that is tied for the third-highest implied team total on the slate (26.75 points).
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Jonnu Smith ($4,100)
Smith is coming off a career-best 31.1 DraftKings point showing vs. the Raiders, and while we can’t expect this type of performance again, the veteran is underpriced, and his 7% ownership projection in our NFL models makes him one of the best tight end targets on the slate. Smith’s career outing this past Sunday was a result of the Dolphins giving him more playing time. With Miami struggling to find production outside of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De’Von Achane, they used 12 personnel at a season-high 50%, which translated into Smith running a route on a team-high and season-high 92% of his team’s dropbacks, which is well above his 58% route rate average for the season. With Smith on the field for almost every passing play, the tight end tied Hill with a team-high eight targets and a 22.9% target share. Notably, Smith saw two red-zone targets, and he saw Miami’s lone target over 20 yards.
The Dolphins’ usage of 12 personnel has increased in each of the last three games, and given how well Smith played with the expanded role in this 15-point win for Miami, he should continue to be on the field for nearly every dropback this Sunday vs. the Patriots. Combine the high route participation with Smith’s great targeting earning ability – he has seen a target on 22% of his routes with Tua Tagovailoa starting this season – and Smith should easily outperform this low salary against this struggling New England defense. The Patriots are giving up the eighth-most yards per pass this season (7.1), and in this spot, Miami’s implied team total is tied for the third-highest on the slate (26.75 points).
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
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