Week 10 presents a 10-game slate on DraftKings, and below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 10.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups for single-entry or 3-entry max tournaments and our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments. Our optimizer allows you to create up to 300 lineups with the click of a button.
The Lineup Optimizer has endless customization opportunities.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Sam Darnold ($6,200) + Justin Jefferson ($8,800)
Stacking Darnold and Jefferson is a must this week. The Vikings are taking on the Jaguars, who are giving up the second-most yards per pass (7.8) and the most passing touchdowns this season (19). This is a dream spot for this Minnesota offense that ranks fourth in pass rate over expectation, and as a result, their implied team total is the third-highest on the slate (25.5 points).
Darnold has been ultra-efficient as a Viking this season, ranking fourth in yards per pass (8.5) and fourth in passing touchdowns (17). The ex-Jet ranks seventh in DraftKings points per dropback (0.57), and he has eclipsed 20 DraftKings points in five of his eight starts.
Jefferson has gelled perfectly with Darnold, ranking third in DraftKings PPG (20.8) and fifth in DraftKings points per snap among receivers (0.37). Jefferson ranks third in target this season (33%), including seven red-zone targets and 14 targets over 20 yards. Jacksonville uses man coverage at the fifth-highest rate this season, and very few have been better against man than Jefferson this season. The wideout ranks third in the league yards against man coverage, and four of his five touchdowns have come against this type of coverage. On the DraftKings Sportsbook, Jefferson’s props are set at 6.6 catches, 95.5 receiving yards and he is a -105 favorite to score a touchdown.
This is an eruption spot for Jefferson, and rightfully so, his ceiling is the highest on the slate by a mile among receivers in our NFL projections.
Both Darnold and Jefferson are forecasted to be only around 10% owned on DraftKings according to our projections, and naturally, the pairing should be a low-owned stack in GPPs.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,400)
After seeing his role decrease, Stevenson has reclaimed his job as the Patriots’ workhorse back. Stevenson has scored at least 22 DraftKings points in back-to-back starts, and over this stretch, he is averaging 15 carries per game – which is 81.1% of New England’s running back carries – including six red-zone attempts while logging 77.2% of the snaps. As a receiver, Stevenson has seen a target on 17% of his routes – including a team-high three red-zone targets – while running a route on 52% of his team’s dropbacks. Nine red-zone opportunities has translated into four touchdowns for Stevenson over the last two weeks. This Sunday, the back faces a Bears’ defense that is far easier to run against than to throw.
This season, Chicago is giving up the fourth-most yards per rush (5.0) and the seventh-fewest yards per pass (6.2). Stevenson has tallied at least 17 DraftKings points in five of his eight starts this season, and the back is a sharp contrarian play, with our projections slating him to be only 5% owned on DraftKings.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Courtland Sutton ($5,600) – Sutton has been sensational over the last two weeks, scoring 21.1 DraftKings points vs. the Panthers and then 26.3 DraftKings points vs. the Ravens. These awesome results are mostly a product of Sutton seeing superb usage, with the receiver leading the Broncos with a 30% target share and an 89% route rate during this span. Furthermore, Sutton ranks second in the NFL in targets over 20 yards (seven) and fourth in red-zone targets (four) over the last two weeks.
Sutton faces the Chiefs this Sunday, and while they are an average defense – they rank 15th in yards per pass allowed (6.5) – Denver is a 7.5-point underdog for this tilt, which will likely result in a pass-heavy game plan for their offense. Sutton should continue to be fed targets as the Broncos’ clear top pass catcher as Denver attempts to keep up with Kansas City, and his third straight performance over 20 DraftKings points is absolutely on the table. Additionally, Sutton is only slated to be around 10% owned on DraftKings, according to our projections.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Dalton Kincaid ($4,900)
Kincaid led the Bills with a 27.8% target share and 10 targets last week, and he should continue to see excellent usage again this weekend. Amari Cooper (wrist) missed this past week and has a chance to return this Sunday, but Keon Coleman (wrist) feels unlikely to play, with the wideout yet to practice this week as of Thursday. Even if Cooper does return, the ex-Brown has yet to see a snap rate over 50% since being traded to Buffalo, as he still gets acclimated with the offense.
All in all, Kincaid should remain Josh Allen’s top target for the second straight week and this is a perfect spot for Kincaid to display his elite talent, going against the Colts. On top of Indianapolis yielding the seventh-most yards per pass (7.2) – no other team in the NFL uses zone coverage more than the Colts. Zone-heavy matchups are always optimal for tight ends, and Indianapolis is allowing the most catches (57) and second-most touchdowns to the position (five). So far during his career, Kincaid has been at his best against zone, with 79% of his catches, 75% of his receiving yards, and all four of his touchdowns coming against this type of coverage. Kincaid could be in store for a career-best outing, and he is an elite GPP play, with our projections slating him to be only 5% owned on DraftKings.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
