Week 1 of the 2024-25 NFL season has finally arrived, and on tap for Sunday is a 12-game slate on DraftKings. Week 1 always presents an excellent time to play contrarian, and below, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools to find some of the best NFL DFS leverage targets for Week 1.
Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
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Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Kirk Cousins ($6,100) + Drake London ($6,000)
The Falcons should be one of the top offenses in the NFL this season and we must take advantage of this pairing of Cousins and London being reasonably priced for Week 1, as we may not see them this cheap for the rest of the year.
Cousins signed a huge four-year, $180 million deal to join the Falcons this offseason and he hasn’t missed any of training camp this summer, coming off an Achilles tear that he suffered last October with the Vikings. Before going down with the injury, Cousins was playing terrific football, averaging 7.5 YPA and throwing for 18 touchdowns and only five picks in eight starts. The veteran recorded at least 19 DraftKings points in six of those eight games and he generated 0.53 DraftKings points per dropback, which ranked 10th among quarterbacks for the season.
Cousins faces a Steelers defense this Sunday that was a middle-of-the-pack group against the pass last season – they ranked 12th in most yards per pass allowed – and he gets the benefit of playing on his home field. Cousins has always been a better fantasy asset at home throughout his career, and last year was no exception, with him producing 24 DraftKings PPG in his five home starts via the Trends Tool. The Falcons sport a solid implied team total of 22.75 points, and Cousins is a mouthwatering GPP target, with our projections slating him for minimal ownership on DraftKings.
With an ownership projection hovering around 10% in our projections, London figures to be a more popular option this Sunday, but combining the receiver with the very low-owned Cousins should be a stack used by very few.
London has flashed great upside at times in his first two seasons in the NFL, but his true potential has yet to be fully unlocked due to poor quarterback play. The three quarterbacks London has played with in the NFL have been Marcus Maroita, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Henickie. Cousins is in a totally different class of quarterback than these three players, and he knows how to get his top playmakers the ball consistently.
London was the No. 8 overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft, and he led the Falcons with 106 targets and a 23.4% target share last season. Those numbers should grow to new heights with Cousins at the helm, and London should become a fantasy star with the efficient passer under center. London’s ceiling in our projections ranks eighth among receivers this Sunday, but he is only the 18th-most-expensive wideout on the slate, showing you he is criminally upside for his potential.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Joe Mixon ($6,600)
Sunday’s AFC South matchup between the Texans and Colts is one of the best games on the slate to target, and Mixon is a sharp, contrarian way to attack this contest, with our projections forecasting him for low ownership on DraftKings. This matchup between Houston and Indianapolis presents the second-highest total on the slate (48.5 points), and the Texans carry the third-largest implied team total on the board (25.75 points). Additionally, Houston is favored by three points, via FantasyLabs’ Vegas Page. All of this creates a terrific situation for Mixon to begin his tenure as a Texan on a high note. The veteran inked a three-year, $25.5 million deal with Houston this past offseason, and Mixon should see a large workload this season as this premier offense’s featured back.
In his final season with the Bengals a year ago, Mixon finished fifth in carries per game (15), third in red-zone carries (56), and seventh in snap share (69%) among running backs. Furthermore, Mixon garnered a 10.8% target share while running a route on 54% of his team’s dropbacks. When asked about Mixon this week, Texans’ HC DeMeco Ryans told the media that “Joe will be doing what he’s done his entire career. I don’t think you’ll see anything different”.
All signs point to Mixon continuing to be a workhorse in Houston, and with the Texans favorited this Sunday, Mixon should be in line for nothing less than 20 touches in a plus matchup vs. a Colts’ defense that gave up the third most rushing touchdowns (16) and fifth-most rushing yards (1,767) to running back last season. To add some more fuel to the fire, Mixon has supplied 17.1 DraftKings PPG when competing as a favorite over the last three seasons, and he is amassing 18.8 DraftKings PPG in four career meetings vs. the Colts, including 21.5 DraftKings point effort last season, via the Trends Tool.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Mike Evans ($7,300)
With Chris Godwin expected to be one of the most popular receivers on the slate, pivoting to the more expensive Evans is one of the best GPP strategies for Week 1. The veteran always brings a higher ceiling than Godwin, and this Sunday’s matchup vs. the Commanders is a perfect spot for Evans to begin this season with a bang. Last season, Washington was putrid against the pass, yielding the second most yards per attempt (7.5). They also gave up the most yards (3,167) and most touchdowns to receivers (29).
Evans led the Buccaneers with a 24.6% target share last season, and he saw great usage both in scoring territory and as a deep threat, finishing third in end-zone targets among all skill players (20) and 10th in aDOT among receivers (15.1). The 31-year-old ranked fifth in DraftKings points per touch among receivers (3.69), and he produced at least 25 points in six games. With a 23-point implied team total this Sunday, Tampa Bay is a 3.5-point home favorite over the Commanders and when competing as a home favorite over the last three seasons, Evans is amassing 22.9 DraftKings PPG (23 games), via the Trends Tool.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Johnny Mundt ($2,900)
Mundt is underpriced for life without T.J. Hockenson (knee) and is a terrific target for GPPs, with our projections forecasting him for little ownership on DraftKings. With Hockenson sidelined for the final two games of the season last year, Mundt supplied 12.4 DraftKings PPG. The tight end saw a target on 20% of his routes, and he ran a route on 89% of his team’s dropbacks with Hockenson unavailable. This is very encouraging usage and with the Vikings not adding any tight ends this offseason, this strong role should continue for Mundy until Hockenson returns.
Sam Darnold starting at quarterback for Minnesota this season does raise some concerns, but Mundt is clearly mispriced for his workload as the Vikings’ top tight end. The 29-year-old contributed a solid 2.36 DraftKings points per touch last season and has a decent chance to exceed double-digit DraftKings points against a Giants’ defense that finished as the fifth-worst-graded unit on PFF last season.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.
