NFL Week 4 gets underway with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Cincinnati Bengals at 8:20 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Joe Burrow at Captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $17,400 as opposed to $11,600.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: Get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
Studs
Burrow’s rookie campaign was cut short due to a knee injury, but he has come out of the gates well to start his sophomore season. He’s averaged 8.0 adjusted yards per attempt to go with seven touchdown passes and four interceptions.
That said, that hasn’t translated to much fantasy success. He’s scored 18.64 DraftKings points or fewer in all three starts, which is very mediocre for a fantasy quarterback.
The biggest problem has been the Bengals’ snail-like pace to start the year. They rank 30th in pace through the first three weeks, including 31st in neutral pace per Football Outsiders. Luckily, the Jaguars rank sixth in neutral pace this season, so the Bengals could have a few more opportunities than usual in this contest.
That should lead to good things for Burrow. The Jaguars rank 30th in pass defense DVOA to start the year, giving Burrow an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.7 on DraftKings.
Joe Mixon is next on the pricing spectrum, and he stands out from a Vegas perspective. The Bengals are currently listed as 7.5-point favorites, and large favorites tend to provide a lot of value at running back. Mixon has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.95 when favored, and he hasn’t been favored by more than a touchdown since his rookie season (per the Trends tool).
Mixon has also been an absolute workhorse to start the year. He’s racked up 67 carries through the first three weeks, and no one else on the roster has more than six. He’s also handled all the work near the goal line and leads the backfield with seven targets. The Jaguars’ defense has been better against the run than the pass this season, but this still stands out as an excellent spot.
Trevor Lawrence entered the NFL with plenty of hype as the No. 1 overall draft pick, but he has struggled to live up to expectations so far. He’s racked up seven interceptions through his first three contests, and the Jaguars have lost all of their games by at least 10 points. The Bengals also rank fourth in defensive DVOA through the first three weeks, so this doesn’t seem like a great spot for him to turn things around.
So much for Ja’Marr Chase not being able to catch an NFL football. He’s been a dominant down-field threat for the Bengals so far this season, racking up four touchdowns through his first three games. Three of those scores have come from at least 34 yards.
Chase doesn’t have the massive target share you’d like to see for a No. 1 wide receiver, but he makes up for it with air yards. He’s commanded nearly 50% of the Bengals’ air yards so far this season, so his targets are typically coming well down the field. That gives him a nice ceiling.
Midrange
James Robinson was one of the biggest surprises last year. He emerged as an undrafted rookie free agent to lead the Jaguars’ backfield, ultimately finishing as the No. 7 RB in PPR formats. Robinson’s stock was expected to soar following the injury to Travis Etienne during training camp, but he has still found himself in a committee. He’s racked up just 31 rushing attempts through the first two games, while Carlos Hyde has 19.
That said, Robinson is getting most of the high-value touches in the Jags’ backfield. He has 15 targets through three weeks, and he also has their only carry from inside the five-yard line. Robinson also scored 25.4 DraftKings points last week vs. the Cardinals, so he clearly has some upside. Still, he seems a bit overpriced on this slate.
Marvin Jones has been the Jaguars’ clear No. 1 wide receiver this season. He leads the team with a 24% market share, and he’s also racked up 30% of their air yards. Jones has also seen four of the Jaguars’ five endzone targets this season, and he’s responded with two touchdowns. Pro Football Focus gives him a sizable advantage over Eli Apple and Chidobe Awuzie on this slate.
Tyler Boyd might be the best pure value on DraftKings at $7,400. He ranks second in our NFL Models in terms of projected Plus/Minus, and he should benefit from the absence of Tee Higgins.
Boyd also has a clear edge vs. Jaguars’ slot cornerback Chris Claybrooks. He’s played the vast majority of his snaps in the slot this season, and he’s allowed a 91% catch rate and 0.56 fantasy points per route run to opposing receivers. Boyd should be able to eat him alive in this matchup.
D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault round out this price range for the Jaguars. Both players have taken a backseat to Jones this season, but both players still have merit. Chark actually leads the Jaguars in air yards this season, and his two touchdowns are tied with Jones for the top mark on the squad. He stands out as the preferred option in this pricing tier on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 86%.
Shenault is the better value on FanDuel, where his $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. He hasn’t had nearly as many high-value targets as Chark or Jones, with most of his work coming near the line of scrimmage. That does cap his upside a bit, but it gives him a relatively safe floor as well.
Finally, the Bengals Defense should garner plenty of ownership on DraftKings. They are a little more expensive than the typical defense in the single-game format, but I would argue they still might be too cheap. They’ve looked fantastic through the first three weeks, while Lawrence has been a turnover machine. They’re definitely live to score a touchdown in this matchup.
Quick Hits
- Kickers and Jaguars Defense: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate your lineups around them.
- Dan Arnold ($4,400 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Arnold was acquired by the Jaguars on Monday, and he could have a significant role with the team moving forward. He should eventually serve as the team’s top tight end, and Lawrence has leaned on the tight end position a lot through three weeks. However, it’s unclear how involved he’ll be in his first game with the team, making him a high-risk option on Thursday.
- C.J. Uzomah ($4,000 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Uzomah has played plenty of snaps for the Bengals this season, but he hasn’t been particularly involved in the passing game. He’s racked up just five targets through three weeks, but he has run the 17th-most routes at the tight end position. That gives him some appeal at his current salary.
- Carlos Hyde ($1,800 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Hyde stands out as an excellent value on DraftKings, which should give him decent ownership in this price range. He’s had at least eight carries in two of three weeks, and he’s also seen at least two targets in two of three contests.
- Jacob Hollister ($1,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): If you don’t believe that Arnold will be ready to take over at tight end this week, Hollister becomes a solid value. He saw six targets last week but finished with just two catches for 15 yards.
- Samaje Perine ($800 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Perine has operated as Mixon’s backup to start the year, and he does have some pass-catching chops out of the backfield. Still, he hasn’t seen enough work to warrant much consideration.
- Auden Tate ($400 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Tate and Mike Thomas are both priced in this range, but Tate seems like the preferred option. He had 27 snaps last week compared to 10 for Thomas, and he has also previously displayed some chemistry with Burrow.
