I just recorded the Week 4 NFL Flex podcast with 4for4 Senior DFS Editor Chris Raybon and RosterCoach Co-Founder TJ Hernandez as well as podcast regular Adam Levitan. I brought up the Colts-Jaguars game, and Levitan joked about how we don’t need to discuss it because it’s not in the main slate and we’re not all degenerates who play every slate as if we’re Peter Jennings.
- Yes, we’re degenerates.
- Yes, you’re a degenerate too.
Then Adam asked about how teams typically do in London games. I realized that I wasn’t sure, so this is a quick article to educate myself (and I guess you too) on the London games and their impact on NFL DFS.
I can’t believe I’m taking the time to write this piece.
What We Know About Games in London
Last year, ‘Sheriff’ Bill Monighetti published a piece in which he broke down what we know about games in London. Here are a few things that we know:
- The field conditions at Wembley Stadium suck. It’s England’s way of paying us back for the Revolutionary War.
- The pregame shows are sick: CSURAM88 would’ve loved seeing Goo Goo Dolls at the 2011 game, amirite?
- Kickers don’t put their best foot forward. (Get it?) Per our Trends tool:
The sample is small, but over the last two years kickers at Wembley have collectively underperformed their salary-based expectations (per our Plus/Minus metric). If you are looking for upside kickers — guys who can (maybe?) justify multiple articles — then you probably want to avoid the London games.
What Else is There?
We are entering our 10th year of having games across the pond. In 2007-2012, there was one game per year. In 2013 a second game was added and since 2014 there have been three games per year — all of them at Wembley, each one being played no earlier than late September and no later than early November.
In total, 14 games have been played there in the last nine years.
• 2007: Giants-Dolphins – 48.0 Over/Under, Giants -10, Giants 13-10, Dolphins cover
• 2008: Chargers-Saints – 45.5 Over/Under, Chargers -3, Saints 37-32
• 2009: Patriots-Buccaneers – 44.5 Over/Under, Patriots -15.5, Patriots 35-7
• 2010: Broncos-49ers – 41.5 Over/Under, 49ers -2.5, 49ers 24-16
• 2011: Bears-Buccaneers – 44.0 Over/Under, Bears -2.0, Bears 24-18
• 2012: Patriots-Rams – 46.0 Over/Under, Patriots -7.0, Patriots 45-7
• 2013: Steelers-Vikings – 41.5 Over/Under, Steelers -3.0, Vikings 34-27
• 2013: 49ers-Jaguars – 40.0 Over/Under, 49ers -14.5, 49ers 42-10
• 2014: Dolphins-Raiders – 40.5 Over/Under, Dolphins -3.5, Dolphins 38-14
• 2014: Lions-Falcons – 45.5 Over/Under, Lions -3.5, Lions 22-21, Falcons cover
• 2014: Cowboys-Jaguars – 45.0 Over/Under, Cowboys -7.5, Cowboys 31-17
• 2015: Jets-Dolphins – 42.0 Over/Under, Jets -1.5, Jets 27-14
• 2015: Bills-Jaguars – 41.0 Over/Under, Bills -4.0, Jaguars 34-31
• 2015: Lions-Chiefs – 45.0 Over/Under, Chiefs -3.5, Chiefs 45-10
Over the last nine years, the London games have produced an 8/6 Over/Under split. In particular, since 2012 the Over has been hit in seven of nine games. That might be a coincidence, but maybe not. Roughly speaking, that’s when NFL scoring started to escalate.
The underdog has either covered or won the contest outright five times.
Massive Overperformance
Over the 14 London games, the average final total has been 48.93 points and exceeded its Vegas Over/Under by 5.36 points (12.30 percent). That’s substantial.
Has that actual total been skewed by a few outlying games? No. The median final total has been 50 points.
And since 2012 the numbers have been even higher. In nine London games, the final total has been an absurd average of 52.11 points, exceeding the Over/Under by 9.17 points (21.35 percent).
Whence This Overperformance?
Over the 14 London games, the average implied totals for the favorites and underdogs have been 24.68 and 18.89 points. The favorites have outperformed their implied totals by 6.46 points (26.19 percent) while the dogs have underperformed by -1.11 points (-5.86 percent). In other words, since 2007 the favorites have collectively been responsible for all (and then some) of the London game excess production.
What do we see since 2012? Something very similar except even more extreme. In the nine London games in that time frame, the favorites and dogs have been implied to score 24.14 and 18.81 points. Notice that these implied totals are comparable to those for the entire sample since 2007.
Favorites massively overperform, surpassing their implied totals by 10.08 points (41.77 percent). And the dogs underperform by -0.92 points (-4.87 percent). Once again, since 2012 the favorites have been responsible for more than 100 percent of the extra London production.
What Should You Do With This Data?
You should recognize that you have three opportunities to exploit this information this year — and maybe four, if the November NFL game played in Mexico City captures some of the London magic.
Of possible interest might be that the game to be played on October 23 will not take place at Wembley but instead at Twickenham stadium. If Twickenham’s field is significantly better than Wembley’s, it might be possible that the favorite will not exhibit the normal pattern of outproduction.
And for this week — Week 4 — you probably shouldn’t hesitate to roster players from the Colts-Jaguars game, especially the Colts. The 49.5-point Over/Under is currently the third-highest on the slate, and the favored Colts’ implied total has risen from 25.25 to 26 points on the strength of 83 percent of bets placed.
The Slates
If you’re playing the 15-game Thursday slate, you might want to treat the London game just like any other game — except one that might provide a significant edge. (Truth be told, Wembly might be the Coors Field of NFL DFS, not the Superdome.)
If you’re a true CSURAM88-esque degenerate who intends to play the two-game Thu-Sun AM slate — and you actually might be, since you’re reading this piece — you’ll want to think about your exposure carefully. At a minimum, you probably don’t want to go out of your way to fade the Colts (given the data herein) unless you absolutely expect that their ownership will be dangerously high — just like Jay Persson when he’s in Europe.
The Trends Tool
Do you want to see how quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends have done in London as DFS assets?
Of course you do.
Am I going to show you?
You bet I’m not.
Explore for yourself. Go to our Trends tool, create a new trend, and then under “Team Filters” select “Wembley Stadium.” With this powerful and easy tool, you’ll quickly be able to discover for yourself the true NFL DFS impact of the London games.
