The NFL is back! Well kind of at least. The preseason gets underway with the Hall of Fame Game between the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday.
While it’s not technically the real deal, the preseason does allow us NFL degens a chance to scratch our fantasy itch. That said, there are a few key differences.
For starters, following the news is even more important than it is during the regular season. Each team has a 90-man roster at this point in the preseason, and most of those players are going to get on the field in Week 1. In fact, the only players who probably won’t play – outside of the injured players – are the superstars. That means you’re going to have to get comfortable clicking on some names that you would never consider during the regular season.
Volume is everything in the preseason. If the starters are only going to play one or two drives before ceding to the backups, the backups will inherently carry more fantasy value. Talent is simply not that important. Maybe the starters can score a touchdown in their limited playing time, but chasing volume is going to be a more sustainable strategy in the long term.
Let’s break down the two rosters and try to identify some fantasy value for Thursday’s DFS contests.
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Dallas Cowboys
Overview
Coaches tend to approach the preseason in different ways. Some of them want to win at all costs, while others are looking to gather more information on their roster. That’s why backing or fading certain coaches during the preseason can be extremely profitable.
Mike McCarthy lands somewhere in the middle. He owns a 27-23-2 against the spread record during the preseason, including a 6-7 record in Week 1. Unfortunately, there’s not much we can use to our advantage there. The Cowboys are currently listed as 1-point underdogs in this matchup, so there’s not much of an edge in implied team total, either.
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott is currently dealing with an injury, so don’t expect to see him on Thursday. He is expected to get some reps during the Cowboys’ final preseason tune-up, but he will likely be on ice until then.
That leaves Garrett Gilbert, Ben DiNucci and Cooper Rush to split the reps vs. the Steelers. There hasn’t been any real update on how the playing time will shake out between these three players, so make sure to follow along for updates.
Gilbert will likely draw the start at the position. He was signed off the Browns’ practice squad after Prescott got hurt last season, and ultimately held his own in his only start. He racked up 243 yards with one touchdown and one interception, and that game was ironically against the Steelers.
Gilbert is relatively new to the team, but he has been in the league since 2014. He doesn’t necessarily need extended reps in the preseason, but I still think he leads the Cowboys’ QBs in snaps on Thursday.
DiNucci was a seventh-round pick in 2020, so this will be his first chance at extended playing time against real competition. He did draw a start for the Cowboys during the regular season, and he was in over his head against the Eagles. Getting him some run in the preseason seems like a smart decision for the Cowboys, especially since he’s competing with Gilbert for the backup job.
DiNucci is also the best athlete among the three quarterbacks, which is another mark in his favor.
Running Backs
The Cowboys’ running back situation actually looks pretty good for Week 1 of the preseason. They have seven players on their roster currently, but two of them are listed as fullbacks. Add in the fact that Ezekiel Elliott might not play, and that leaves us with four players.
One of those options is Tony Pollard, and I would expect the Cowboys to limit his snaps as well. Pollard is a dynamic athlete, so preserving him for the regular season is the right decision.
That leaves us with three options: Rico Dowdle, JaQuan Hardy, and Brenden Knox. All three players are undrafted free agents, with Dowdle signing in 2020 and Hardy and Knox signing this season.
Dowdle is the clear best athlete of the group. He tested in the 67th percentile for 40-yard dash time and Speed Score, and his Burst Score put him in the 88th percentile (per Player Profiler). He also attended South Carolina, which is a major college football program.
Among the rookies, Hardy is the preferred target. He’s not nearly the same athlete as Dowdle – he ran a 4.56 at his pro day – but he was a clear workhorse in college. He attended a small school in Tiffin, but he averaged a robust 7.6 yards per carry in his final season. He also posted a 32.8% “Dominator Rating,” which means he accounted for 32.8% of his team’s yards and touchdowns. That puts him in the 76th percentile.
Wide Receivers
Here’s where things really start to get fun. The Cowboys have a whopping 14 wide receivers on their depth chart currently. Only Amari Cooper and T.J. Vasher are not expected to play in the Hall of Fame Game, which leaves 12 options at the position.
Of course, we can pretty safely cross CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup off. Those guys have nothing to prove, so don’t expect to see them for more than a drive or two.
There are a few interesting options to consider among the remaining group. Cedrick Wilson was a sixth-round pick back in 2018, and he’s had some moments in the NFL. He had five catches for 107 yards and two touchdowns in Week 3 last season, so he’s proven he can compete at this level.
Getty Images. Pictured: Cedrick Wilson
Simi Fehoko was a fifth-round pick in 2021, and he’s an intriguing prospect. He flashed impressive athleticism at his pro day, running a 4.44 40-yard dash. The result is a 95th percentile Speed Score. He’s someone I will definitely have some exposure to on Thursday.
Tight End
The Cowboys’ TE group is pretty easy to break down. Don’t play any of them. They currently have six players on their roster at the position, and even with Blake Jarwin not traveling for the game, that still leaves five players to choose from.
Tight ends are essentially useless in preseason DFS. They’ve averaged approximately 1.9 DraftKings points per game during Week 1 of the preseason, which is the lowest among all position groups. They also have virtually no ceiling, so fading the position altogether should be your default strategy.
Defense and Special Teams
Defenses and kickers are extremely viable in Week 1 of the preseason. Defenses average more points than any position group, which makes sense if you think about it. Not only do you not have to worry about rostering the correct linemen, linebackers, and defensive backs, but the defenses are also spending most of their team against backup quarterbacks. That leads to lower-scoring contests and more opportunities for sacks and turnovers.
Kickers also carry a lot of value in the preseason. Punter Hunter Niswander is handling the kicking duties with Greg Zuerlein sidelined, but Niswander is not available on DraftKings. He is available on FanDuel, which makes him an appealing option. Kickers often share the kicking duties during the preseason, but you don’t have to worry about that with the Cowboys on Thursday.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Overview
Mike Tomlin is another coach who has hovered around .500 throughout his career during the preseason. He’s posted a record of 26-27-1, including a mark of 7-6-1 in Week 1 or the Hall of Fame game.
The Steelers own the edge in implied team total, and they also have a few more injuries to consider. Ben Roethlisberger will not suit up vs. the Cowboys, while Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Chase Claypool are all expected to see minimal playing time. Rookie first-rounder Najee Harris will play, but I would expect him to be limited to just a series or two.
Overall, they stand out as the easier team to project, which makes them the preferred target in this contest.
Quarterbacks
With Roethlisberger out of the picture, the Steelers will utilize Mason Rudolph, Dwayne Haskins, and Joshua Dobbs at quarterback. The beat writers have reported that Rudolph will start the game, Haskins will take over during the second quarter, and Dobbs will enter near the end of the third.
That means Haskins is likely the player to target here. He has the potential to lead this group in snaps, and he is also playing for a new team this season. He has reportedly impressed during training camp, and he clearly has plenty of talent after being drafted in the first round just three years ago.
Dobbs also has some appeal. He won’t see as much playing time as Haskins, but he does have elite athleticism for a quarterback. His rushing ability could allow him to rack up fantasy points quickly, and he’ll also be competing against third- and fourth-string defenders.
Running Backs
Benny Snell Jr. is expected to serve as Harris’ backup this season, but he did not practice on Tuesday. That puts his status up in the air for the Hall of Fame game, but I always expect teams to exercise caution this early in the preseason.
That leaves Anthony McFarland Jr., Kalen Ballage, Jaylen Samuels, and Trey Edmunds as the viable running back options in this contest. Tony Brooks-James is also on the roster, but he’s not available on either DraftKings or FanDuel.
McFarland stands out from an athleticism perspective. He ran a 4.44 40-yard dash at the combine, which puts him in the 91st percentile at the running back position. He had just 33 carries as a rookie, so getting him some playing time should be a priority.
Ballage also has solid measurables, but he’s bounced around the league to start his career. This is his first tenure with the Steelers, so he’s another player I’m sure they’d like to get a look at.
Justin K. Aller/Getty Images. Pictured: Kalen Ballage (29)
Wide Reciever
James Washington should be one of the highest-owned players on this slate. He would be a starting wide receiver for a lot of teams in this league, but the Steelers simply have a glut at the position. He’s expected to play into the second half per the team’s beat reporters, and he should be a favorite target of both Rudolph and Haskins. Washington is the rare combination of talent and volume, which is as good as gold during the preseason.
After Washington, Ray-Ray McCloud, Isaiah McKoy, Anthony Johnson, Rico Bussey, Mathew Sexton and Tyler Simmons make up the rest of the active depth chart. McCloud didn’t practice on Tuesday, so it’s also possible that he doesn’t suit up vs. the Cowboys. If he’s out, the Steelers would actually be pretty thin at receiver for a preseason game. That would put virtually all of the other options on the radar. All of the remaining options were undrafted free agents in either 2020 or 2021, so there’s not a ton to separate them.
Tight End
Even though tight end is a garbage position in preseason DFS, it is worth noting that the Steelers are thin at the position. Their top three options are not expected to play vs. the Cowboys – Eric Ebron, Pat Freiermuth and Zach Gentry – which leaves Kevin Rader and Marcus Baugh. Derek Watt has also been working as a tight end some during practice, but he’s more of a traditional fullback. I will still keep my exposure to these guys minimal, but a sprinkle might not hurt.
Defense and Kicker
The Steelers’ defense is in play for all of the same reasons as the Cowboys. I would expect both defenses to actually be among the highest-owned players on the slate.
As for kickers, Chris Boswell and Sam Sloman are both on the Steelers training camp roster. Boswell has been the Steelers’ kicker since 2015, but both players will likely get some opportunities in this contest.
