The Defenses and Special Teams Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
Sky’s the Limit
Here are the top three D/STs per our Ceiling Projections:
- Denver Broncos ($2,300 DraftKings; $3,400 FanDuel)
- Chicago Bears ($4,100 DraftKings; $5,400 FanDuel)
The Broncos defense heads into this game ranked third in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate metric, while the Texans offensive line ranks just 29th in adjusted sack rate. Overall, Deshaun Watson has been pressured on a league-high 45.1% of his dropbacks this season, per Pro Football Focus.
The Texans’ lack of ability to protect Watson should give the Broncos a decent floor in this game as they presently own a sack projection of 3.5, which trails only that of the Bears this week. The Broncos are my favorite pay-down defense for Week 9.
The Bears lead the main slate with a 3.6 sack projection against an abysmal Bills team that will be rolling out Nathan Peterman at quarterback. Even if Khalil Mack (ankle) doesn’t suit up, the Bears are still playable considering the Bills offensive line ranks 29th in adjusted sack rate, and Buffalo has an absurdly low 13.5-point implied team total. Opposing defenses against the Bills this season are averaging 14.14 DraftKings points per game with a +4.63 Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool).
Shoot the Gap
Kansas City Chiefs ($2,700 DraftKings; $3,900 FanDuel): The Chiefs are an intriguing defense as eight-point favorites despite being on the road. Overall, the Chiefs’ defense hasn’t been strong this year, but Kansas City does rank seventh in adjusted sack rate, and the Browns have struggled to protect their quarterbacks, ranking 30th in adjusted sack rate, allowing 33 sacks this season. The downside to this play is the Chiefs defense has historically been much worse on the road than at home.
Buffalo Bills ($2,300 DraftKings; $3,000 FanDuel): Targeting a team as a 10-point underdog isn’t an ideal scenario, but the Bills defense has been serviceable this year, ranking fourth in defensive DVOA and 10th in adjusted sack rate.
Baltimore Ravens ($2,500 DraftKings; $3,500 FanDuel): The Ravens are an interesting tournament play at home against the visiting Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers. FantasyLabs co-founder Jonathan Bales sums it up quite well:
Via the @FantasyLabs Trends tool, QBs are typically worse in their second matchup with a team (late-season division). They've averaged 2+ fewer PPG and reached their expected pts only 40.7% of the time (52.3% in non-division games). This week, Big Ben gets BAL for the 2nd time. pic.twitter.com/0Gk1mPCwEK
— Jonathan Bales (@BalesFootball) October 31, 2018
That said, it’ll be strength vs. strength in this matchup as the Steelers offensive line ranks first in adjusted sack rate, while the Ravens’ defensive line ranks fourth.
Carolina Panthers ($3,200 DraftKings; $4,300 FanDuel): The Panthers are better reserved for tournaments because there are better options at cheaper price points. As explosive as the Buccaneers can be, Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t exactly known for taking care of the football.
The Panthers are seven-point home favorites, which should result in a pass-heavy approach for an already pass-heavy team. More passes equal more opportunity for sacks and turnovers. Per our Trends tool, defenses with comparable point spreads have historically averaged a +1.22 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Be sure to check out our industry-leading NFL News and Models, along with our Multi-Lineup Builder, Stack builder, ownership projections and more. Also, make sure to check out our other tools for the 2018 season, including the Matchups page, DFS Contests Dashboard, NFL Ownership page, and NFL Correlations page.
Pictured above: Von Miller and Derek Wolfe
Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
