The Defenses and Special Teams Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
Sky’s the Limit
Here are the top three D/STs per our Ceiling Projections:
- Pittsburgh Steelers: $2,300 DraftKings; $3,800 FanDuel
- Kansas City Chiefs: $2,600 DraftKings; $3,900 FanDuel
- Arizona Cardinals: $3,200 DraftKings; $3,400 FanDuel
The Steelers are the free square of the week, especially on DraftKings, where they’re the 13th-most expensive defense. This is a tremendous mismatch considering that the Steelers rank inside the top five in both quarterback hurries (86) and pressures (98) per Sports Info Solutions. The Steelers also rank fourth in Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Sack Rate, while the Browns’ offensive line ranks dead last.
The Steelers also own a sack projection of 4.0, which is a full sack higher than the next-best defense.
Kansas City’s defense ranks 15th in Adjusted Sack Rate, while Denver also ranks 15th, making it an average matchup in the trenches. However, the Chiefs are 10-point home favorites as of writing (see live data here), and being a double-digit home favorite has been a positive trend for defenses over the years.
Historically, defenses with comparable spreads at home have averaged a +1.71 DraftKings Plus/Minus. The Chiefs are an intriguing cheap tournament pivot off the Steelers.
Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chandler Jones, Corey Peters
Meanwhile, the 49ers have struggled to protect C.J. Beathard. He’s been pressured on 36.6% of his dropbacks and sacked on 23.3% — the eighth-highest mark in the league per Pro Football Focus. Overall, it’s a good spot for the Cardinals considering they rank seventh in Adjusted Sack Rate and the 49ers are implied for a paltry 21 points.
The Cardinals are a better value on FanDuel, where they are $400 cheaper than the Steelers.
Shoot the Gap
Chicago Bears ($4,100 DraftKings; $5,000 FanDuel): The Bears’ 3.0 projected sacks trail only the Steelers’ projection for Week 8’s main slate. Provided Khalil Mack (ankle) is healthy, there’s no reason to think that the Bears should fail here against a Jets team that is implied for 19 points. Sam Darnold has struggled under pressure this season, averaging only 5.4 yards per attempt with a 7.3% interception rate, the seventh-highest mark in the league.
Detroit Lions ($2,400 DraftKings; $3,700 FanDuel): The Lions already rank first in Adjusted Sack Rate. They also recently traded for Damon Harrison, who will help shore up their defensive line — although he is more of a run-stuffer than a pass-rusher. Still, the Seahawks offensive line ranks 28th in Adjusted Sack Rate while the Lions’ sack projection of 2.9 is the third-highest mark on the main slate.
Los Angeles Rams ($2,600; $4,000 FanDuel): Playing the LA defense won’t be for the faint of heart, and this shouldn’t be done in cash games. However, Aaron Rodgers has struggled greatly under pressure this season, and the Rams have done a fantastic job of pressuring the quarterback:
Aaron Rodgers under pressure this year (min. 25 attempts under pressure, via SIS) among 36 qualifying QBs:
30.9% completion rate (35th)
42.6% on-target rate (36th)
3.6 yards per attempt (36th)Rams defense:
102 pressures (1st)
61 hits (3rd)— Justin Bailey (@justinbailey32) October 23, 2018
Baltimore Ravens ($2,800 DraftKings; $3,700 FanDuel): The Ravens rank second in Adjusted Sack Rate and ninth in quarterback pressures this season but they’ll be on the road in Carolina against the mobile Cam Newton, which isn’t ideal. Newton can gash defenses on the ground with his legs, but if the Ravens can get pressure on him, he could struggle. Cam has just a 40% completion rate and is averaging 5.4 yards per attempt while under pressure this season. I wouldn’t roster the Ravens in cash games, but they’re in tournament consideration because they have one of the best defenses in the league.
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Pictured above: T.J. Watt
Photo credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports
