The Defenses and Special Teams Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
Sky’s the Limit
Here are the top two D/STs per our Ceiling Projections:
- Jacksonville Jaguars: $3,600 DraftKings; $4,700 FanDuel
- Houston Texans: $3,500 DraftKings; $4,700 FanDuel
The Jaguars check in with the highest Ceiling Projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Their 2.6 Projected Sacks is the seventh-highest mark among defenses this week as they’re up against Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. Prescott ranks just 20th in pass attempts this season, but he’s been sacked on 10% of his dropbacks, which is the fifth-highest rate in the league. Additionally, the Cowboys boast an implied team total of just 19 points. Historically, defenses against teams with comparable implied totals have averaged a +1.58 DraftKings Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool).
The Texans’ 3.7 Projected Sacks is the highest mark by a significant margin. They’re one of just two teams to have a projected sack total greater than three. The high sack total isn’t surprising considering Josh Allen has already been sacked a league-high 19 time — on 13.5% of his dropbacks. The Bills have been a solid offense to target as they’re sporting an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.5 on DraftKings and +4.2 on FanDuel.
Shoot the Gap
Minnesota Vikings ($3,800 DraftKings; $4,600 FanDuel): It shouldn’t be shocking to see the Vikings near the top in our Median Projections. They’ll take on a Cardinals team that is implied for a slate-low 16.25 points. Per Sports Info Solutions, the Vikings rank seventh in quarterback hurries and hits, so they shouldn’t have an issue generating pressure against Pro Football Focus’ No. 30 pass-blocking unit. The Vikings’ defense has also been rock solid at home, averaging a +1.17 DraftKings Plus/Minus in Minnesota since Mike Zimmer became the head coach.
Chicago Bears ($3,300 DraftKings; $4,500 FanDuel): The Bears lead the league with 4.5 sacks per game, and they’ve been incredibly stingy in allowing only 5.1 yards per play. Additionally, they’ve allowed opposing offenses to score on only 24.4% of their drives while owning a robust 24.4% turnover rate, per Pro Football Reference.
Los Angeles Rams ($3,100 DraftKings; $4,800 FanDuel): The Rams secondary has been beatable following the loss of Aqib Talib, as Marcus Peters has struggled coming off his calf injury. That said, generating sacks is primarily where defensive points come from, and the Rams’ front seven causes havoc up front — top five in pressures (70), hurries (72) and hits (52). The Rams are seven-point favorites against the Broncos as of writing (see live odds here), and defenses on teams with comparable spreads have averaged a +1.30 DraftKings Plus/Minus since 2014.
Baltimore Ravens ($2,800 DraftKings; $4,000 FanDuel): The Titans’ offense hasn’t been great this year, averaging just 4.8 yards per play. Only the Bills and Cardinals have been worse. Perhaps the biggest news is that left tackle Taylor Lewan left last week’s game and could be out this week, which isn’t ideal against a defense averaging 3.20 sacks per game and holding offenses to a league-low 23.1% scoring rate.
Dallas Cowboys ($2,300 DraftKings; $4,100 FanDuel): The Cowboys defense has one of the lowest salaries for Week 6 on DraftKings, yet it owns a solid +1.48 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings. It’s an appealing spot considering the Jaguars’ 20.7% turnover rate is worst in the league. Moreover, the Cowboys quietly rank third in pressures this year and are averaging 3.0 sacks per game.
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Pictured above: Barry Church and Dante Fowler Jr.
Photo credit: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports
