The Defenses and Special Teams Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
Sky’s the Limit
Here are the top two D/STs per our median projections:
- Seattle Seahawks: $3,700 DraftKings; $4,700 FanDuel
- Green Bay Packers: $2,400 DraftKings; $4,300 FanDuel
The Seahawks defense could be set up well at home against a Cardinals offensive line that ranks 25th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate. However, this projection could change if the Seahawks decide to rest some of their starters since they’re locked into either the No. 5 or 6 seed.
This game isn’t presently listed in sportsbooks with the uncertainty of how the Seahawks will approach this game.
The Packers are tied with a slate-high 3.0 sack projection against a Lions team implied for just 18.75 points. Overall, the Packers are an interesting tournament play given their pass-rush ranks fifth in pressure rate and 10th in adjusted sack rate. Their defense is a better value on DraftKings where they have an 89% Bargain Rating and slate-high +2.61 Projected Plus/Minus.
Shoot the Gap
Houston Texans ($3,300 DraftKings; $5,000 FanDuel): The Texans will be a full go on Sunday as they need to win to clinch a first-round home game. The Jaguars offense has been abysmal of late, and now Jacksonville is a 7-point underdog in Houston (see live odds here). The Texans defense has been average at generating sacks, ranking 14th in adjusted sack rate, but the Jags offensive line ranks 27th in adjusted sack rate, allowing 50 sacks this season — the third-most in the league.
Baltimore Ravens ($2,900 DraftKings; $4,700 FanDuel): The Ravens are in a must-win game to make the playoffs. Fortunately for them, they’re at home against a Browns team that’s implied for 17.5 points. Baltimore has allowed a league-low 4.6 yards per play and 28.7% scoring rate to opposing offenses. Its defense also ranks third in pressure rate and fourth in adjusted sack rate. The Ravens are especially affordable on DraftKings with their 82% Bargain Rating.
Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,500 DraftKings; $4,600 FanDuel): The Steelers are another motivated team as they need to win and have the Ravens lose to make the playoffs. Since both teams play at 4:25 p.m. ET, they won’t know ahead of time. Their defense is my favorite play on the slate if you can afford them. They rank second in adjusted sack rate, second in pressure rate and third in sacks per game this season. And they’ll be playing a Bengals team sporting a slate-low 15.5-point implied team total.
Minnesota Vikings ($2,500 DraftKings; $4,100 FanDuel): Since the Vikings are in a must-win spot and the Bears need the Rams to lose to get the No. 2 seed in the NFC, then it’s possible that the Bears don’t play their starters the whole game if the Rams are blowing out the 49ers. This wouldn’t be surprising since the Vikings are 5-point home favorites and the Bears have an implied team total of 18 points. The Vikings are easily affordable on both sites — their price point isn’t hard to pay for a defense that ranks first in adjusted sack rate, fourth in pressure rate and first in sacks per game.
Kansas City Chiefs ($2,600 DraftKings; $4,400 FanDuel): The Chiefs need to beat the Raiders on Sunday to secure the AFC’s No. 1 seed, so there should be zero rest in this game. Their secondary is beatable, but the Raiders rank 26th in scoring rate this season, and the Chiefs have a solid pass rush that ranks ninth in adjusted sack rate and 12th in pressure rate. In fact, their 3.33 sacks per game is tied for a league-best with the Vikings.
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Pictured above: Joe Haden
Photo credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
