The Defenses and Special Teams Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
Sky’s the Limit
Here are the top two D/STs per our median projections:
- Chicago Bears: $3,500 DraftKings; $5,000 FanDuel
- Los Angeles Rams: $3,200 DraftKings; $4,900 FanDuel
The Bears are one of two teams in our Player Models with a sack projection higher than 3.0. They’re in a good spot against a 49ers offense implied for a meager 19.25 points. More importantly, the 49ers’ offensive line ranks 24th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate, while the Bears’ defensive line ranks ninth. Chicago’s 3.50 sacks per game since Week 10 is also the third-highest mark, trailing only the Saints (4.67) and Chiefs (4.20), per Sports Info Solutions.
The Bears might be too expensive for cash games since they’re the most expensive defense on both sites, but they’re one of the top plays on the board.
The Falcons don’t have much of a pass rush, but they were able to get to Josh Rosen a whopping seven times last Sunday. Now their offensive line will try to contain Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh and a defense that ranks ninth in pressure rate over the past six weeks. Donald is dominating for the Rams, leading them in pressures (89), sacks (17) and hurries (55), per Pro Football Focus. The Cardinals have allowed Rosen to be pressured on 42.6% of his dropbacks since Week 10, the seventh-highest rate among quarterbacks.
The Rams should be a safe play as 14-point home favorites (see live odds here) against a Cardinals team implied for 16.25 points.
Shoot the Gap
Dallas Cowboys ($2,500 DraftKings; $3,700 FanDuel): The Cowboys presently have the third-highest median projection in our Models, but they’re priced near the middle for defenses, resulting in a top-three Projected Plus/Minus on both sites. The Bucs could be forced into their usual pass-heavy game script as 7.5-point underdogs on the road. Overall, the Cowboys should be set up well in this spot as defenses with comparable spreads have historically averaged a +1.16 DraftKings Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool).
New England Patriots ($2,500 DraftKings; $4,300 FanDuel): The Patriots are in play since they’re 13-point home favorites, but they might not have much upside as they rank 30th in adjusted sack rate this season. They’re a better value on DraftKings where they have an 82% Bargain Rating.
Minnesota Vikings ($2,900 DraftKings; $4,600 FanDuel): The Vikings have been excellent over the past six weeks, sporting the second-highest sack rate (11.02%) and fifth-highest pressure rate (38.97%), per Sports Info Solutions. Their defense gave Matthew Stafford plenty of trouble when they faced him in November, sacking him 10 times.
Philadelphia Eagles ($2,100 DraftKings; $3,200 FanDuel): The Eagles are likely the best pure punt on the slate for $2,100 on DraftKings and $3,200 on FanDuel. They’re tied with the Bears for a slate-high 3.2 sack projection as they’re set to take on Deshaun Watson, who has been pressured on 43.8% of his dropbacks and sacked on 27.2% of them, per PFF. The Eagles boast a top-two Projected Plus/Minus on both sites for Week 16.
Be sure to check out our industry-leading NFL News and Models, along with our Multi-Lineup Builder, Stack builder, ownership projections and more. Also, make sure to check out our other tools for the 2018 season, including the Matchups page, DFS Contests Dashboard, NFL Ownership page, and NFL Correlations page.
Pictured above: Aaron Donald
Photo credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
