NFL Week 3 wraps up with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys at 8:15 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Dak Prescott at Captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $16,800 as opposed to $11,200.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: Get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
Studs
Prescott is the most expensive option in this contest, and he started the year with a massive performance vs. the Buccaneers in Week 1. He threw the ball 58 times, resulting in 403 yards and three touchdowns.
That said, things couldn’t have been more different in Week 2. He attempted just 27 passes, and he finished with just 237 passing yards and no scores. Ultimately, his fantasy production dropped from 31.42 DraftKings points vs. the Buccaneers to just 8.48 vs. the Chargers.
Which version of Prescott will we see on Monday? The answer is probably somewhere in between. The Cowboys were clearly more focused on running the ball vs. the Chargers after failing to do so vs. the Bucs, but Prescott is the type of player who should be throwing the ball 40 times a game.
He’ll take the field as a home favorite on Monday, and Prescott has historically thrived in that role. He’s made 30 starts as a home favorite, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.39 in those contests (per the Trends tool).
The Eagles defense has been stingy to start the year – they rank sixth in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA – but Prescott still owns the top median and ceiling projections in our NFL Models.
Jalen Hurts is the other signal-caller in this contest, and he has a tantalizing skill set for fantasy purposes. He’s played five complete games as an NFL starter, and he’s averaged 76.4 rushing yards in those contests. He also averages nearly half of a rushing touchdown per start, giving him approximately 10 fantasy points before factoring in any passing statistics.
With that in mind, his average of 27.85 DraftKings points per game is not all that surprising.
The Cowboys’ defense held their own last week vs. the Chargers, but they are operating at far less than full strength. They’re down a handful of pass rushers, including their best defensive player in DeMarcus Lawrence. The Eagles will be missing two starters on the offensive line, but I’d still give that unit a sizable advantage. They should give Hurts plenty of time to rack up fantasy points, either with his arm or with his legs.
The Cowboys’ top pass catchers also qualify as stud targets. CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper have dominated the receiving work for the team so far this season. Lamb leads the team with 24 targets, but Cooper is right behind him at 21. No other player has seen more than eight targets this season.
Deciding between the two is tough, and playing both together is certainly viable. However, I’d give the edge to Lamb if I could only choose one. He leads the team in air yards market share, which means his targets are slightly more valuable than Cooper’s. Cooper is also dealing with a cracked rib, which makes him a bit riskier from an injury perspective. He wasn’t listed on the team’s final injury report, but there’s always a chance he could aggravate his ribs during this contest.
Midrange
Is the Cowboys’ backfield turning into a committee? It’s possible. Ezekiel Elliott has racked up just 27 carries through the first two weeks, while Tony Pollard has seen 16. Elliott remains the preferred target around the goal line, while Pollard is the preferred pass-catching option.
That makes this situation a bit of a headache for fantasy purposes. Both players are priced extremely aggressively for players in a committee, which makes it tough to trust either vs. the Eagles. Elliott owns the stronger projections in our NFL Models, but he doesn’t appear to be the same elite back that he was in his prime. Fading this situation altogether might make sense.
The Eagles’ backfield is also a bit of a committee, but it’s a much easier one to decipher. Kenneth Gainwell has siphoned away some touches from Miles Sanders, but Sanders is still getting most of the high-value opportunities. His seven targets is tied for the third-highest mark on the team, and he’s received the only running back carry inside the five-yard line. Sanders still has to contend with Hurts for rushing scores, but there’s no question that he’s the team’s top running back.
That said, that doesn’t mean you can’t play Gainwell on this slate. He’s been more involved than expected to start the year, racking up 15 carries and six targets, so he definitely has a role on this team. He’s also significantly cheaper than Pollard, which makes him much more palatable.
The Eagles have four pass-catchers in this price range, but DeVonta Smith stands out as their clear alpha. He leads the team with a 26% target share, and he’s accounted for more than 50% of their air yards. He’s also seen one of their three end zone targets this season, so he’s dominating in virtually every statistical category. ProFootballFocus gives him the biggest matchup edge vs. the Cowboys, but none of their receivers really stand out in that area.
Dallas Goedert also has some appeal. He’s merely tied for third on the team in targets, but he does his best work near the goal line. Four of his seven targets have come in the red zone, and he’s scored a touchdown in that area this season.
Jalen Reagor ranks second on the Eagles in both targets and air yards, and he’s also scored one of their three receiving touchdowns. His projections aren’t that different from Smith’s and Goedert’s, but he’s cheaper than both players.
Quez Watkins is the final Eagles’ pass catcher in this price range, and he’s the toughest to make a case for. He displayed some explosiveness during the preseason, and he has turned five catches into 140 receiving yards through the first two games. However, he has just five targets, which ranks merely sixth on the team. He seems a bit overpriced on DraftKings given his current role.
Dalton Schultz and Cedrick Wilson round out this price range for the Cowboys, and both players have the opportunity for a few additional targets with Michael Gallup out of the lineup. Schultz played on 73% of the Cowboys’ snaps last week, and he saw six targets in their first game this season. Wilson upped his snap share from 40% in Week 1 to 58% in Week 2, so he has some viability as well.
Quick Hits
- Kickers & Defenses: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate your lineups around them.
- Blake Jarwin ($3,000 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): It was unclear how the tight end snaps would be split between Schultz and Jarwin this season, but Schultz clearly has the edge for now. Still, Jarwin has played in around 50% of the snaps through the first two weeks, and he’s seen at least four targets in both games.
- Greg Ward ($1,600 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): Ward has not been particularly involved in the Eagles’ offense to start the year. He hasn’t recorded a single catch, and his only contribution was an incomplete pass. Still, he’s played on 36% of the Eagles’ snaps last week.
- Noah Brown ($200 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel): Brown has some appeal as a pure punt on DraftKings. He played on 19% of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps last week, and he doesn’t need to do much to potentially return value.
