Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 DFS lineups in each contest.
This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.
Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.
For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.
My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Lions vs. Packers Showdown
The name of the game tonight is uncertainty, and I think it is going to be important to gauge projected ownership leading up to lock and embracing the uncertainty. All of David Montgomery, Aaron Jones, and Christian Watson look set to make their returns, though all figure to be limited in some capacity.
On the Lions side, tertiary backs like Craig Reynolds and Zonovan Knight now face an extremely uphill battle to relevance even on a one-game slate and should be reserved only for large field lotteries. Montgomery figures to cede more work to Jahmyr Gibbs than he did prior to injury, but the Lions’ goal line back is always a threat to fall into the end zone multiple times, which preserves his viability.
On the Packers’ side of the ball, running back looks like a bit of a mess. AJ Dillon has looked legitimately bad during his time as the featured back and has started ceding playing time to Patrick Taylor and Emmanuel Wilson, who could be interesting only if we get pre-game reports regarding their involvement. Jones himself looks like a pay up to be contrarian option as his median projection won’t be able to match the other high-end spends given projected playing time, but he is an explosive player who warrants consideration.
Finally, Christian Watson looks set to return tonight and I would expect somewhere around 40% of snaps. I do want some exposure, as he is a player who can score from anywhere on the field, even on limited snaps. Elsewhere, Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave look like the safest price-adjusted plays, as they seem most likely to retain something similar to their current pass-catching roles in a solid passing offense.
Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider
General
- Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
- Minimum salary cap 90%
Player Correlations
- Pair Captain Jordan Love with at least two Packers pass-catchers.
- Pair Captain Jared Goff with at least two Lions pass-catchers (Gibbs counts).
- Pair Captain pass-catchers with at most one other pass-catcher from the same team.
Player Groups
- Max two kickers and defenses
- Max 2 RB per team, though I don’t see myself playing Jones in a lineup with Dillon at Captain.
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Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)
Primary Targets
- Amon-Ra St Brown
- Jordan Love
- Jahmyr Gibbs
Secondary Targets
- Aaron Jones
- Jared Goff
- Christian Watson
- David Montgomery
- Romeo Doubs
Large-Field GPP Fliers
- Luke Musgrave
- Sam LaPorta
- Jayden Reed
- Kalif Raymond
- Josh Reynolds
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
