Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 DFS lineups in each contest.
This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.
Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.
For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.
My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Jaguars vs. Saints Showdown
I see two spots that I think may go overlooked this week, both on the Saints’ side. In looking for under-the-radar angles this week, I noticed that despite the Jaguars defense relative success overall, they have been susceptible to big games from outside receivers.
Michael Pittman (8-97-1, 9-109-0), Gabe Davis (6-100-1), Tank Dell (5-145-1), and even Justin Watson (3-62-0) had success on the perimeter against the Jags so far this year. Derek Carr has been mediocre this year, and the Saints will be without two starters on the offensive line this week, both of which concern me; however, there is no denying that this is a solid spot for both Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Olave has been just okay to start the year, but both guys have the field-stretching ability to win downfield against a secondary that has proven to be burnable.
I think Taysom Hill is another good option who represents a pay-up-to-be contrarian option. Priced up at $6,200, I highly doubt industry projections will be bullish enough on him to result in significant ownership. Hill was a legit full-time pass catcher last week while still handling a few gadget snaps in the backfield.
Especially in scenarios where the Saints offensive line is catastrophically inept, Hill has the potential to rack up low aDOT receptions and always has the potential to score a short rushing touchdown. At this point, I’m not expecting the ownership to match the ceiling.
Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider
General
- Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
- Minimum salary cap 90%
Player Correlations
- Pair Captain Derek Carr with at least two Saints pass-catchers.
- Pair Captain Trevor Lawrence with at least two Jags pass-catchers.
- Pair Captain pass-catchers with at most one other pass-catcher from the same team.
- Most lineups should also pair Captain pass-catchers with their QB.
Player Groups
- Max two kickers and defenses
- Max 1 Saints RB
- Max 1 Jags TE
- Max 1 of Tim Jones and Jamal Agnew
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Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)
Primary Targets
- Travis Etienne
- Calvin Ridley
- Alvin Kamara
- Chris Olave
- Christian Kirk
Secondary Targets
- Trevor Lawrence
- Rashid Shaheed
- Evan Engram
- Taysom Hill
Large-Field GPP Fliers
- Michael Thomas
- Derek Carr
- Saints D
- Jags D
- Jamal Agnew
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
