Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 DFS lineups in each contest.
This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.
Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.
For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.
My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Broncos vs. Chiefs Showdown
The forecast for Thursday night in Kansas City is calling for showers and thunderstorms with sustained winds in the 20 mph range with gusts into the 30s. I generally think weather is vastly overrated when it comes to its impact on fantasy, but there is historical data to suggest that 20 mph is a threshold that does tend to shift play-calling and scoring output to at least some extent.
Armed with this data, I expect Isiah Pacheco to be quite popular on Thursday night. Pacheco certainly makes sense, but I’m looking for ways to get different in tournaments. One spot I like is looking to Kadarius Toney at just $4,000. He has seen his snaps start to climb a bit in his journey back from his (latest) injury. These designed looks happen to occur at or around the line of scrimmage, which preserves his viability regardless of how bad the weather gets.
Another player who is likely to go extremely overlooked is Noah Gray at $4,400. With Travis Kelce expected to play, Gray’s projection is not going to be high enough to put him in optimals. That being said, if the game does play out as expected with a Chiefs domination, there’s no need to keep Kelce in once the game is out of hand. In lineups that tell a story of a KC blowout, I think Gray makes sense as a correlated contrarian option.
Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider
General
- Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
- Minimum salary cap 90%
Player Correlations
- Pair Captain Patrick Mahomes with at least two Chiefs pass-catchers.
- Pair Captain Russell Wilson with at least two Broncos pass-catchers.
- Pair Captain pass-catchers with at most one other pass-catcher from the same team.
Player Groups
- Max two kickers and defenses
- Max 1 Bronco RB
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Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)
Primary Targets
- Patrick Mahomes
- Isiah Pacheco
- Travis Kelce
Secondary Targets
- Jerry Jeudy
- Rashee Rice
- Courtland Sutton
- Kadarius Toney
- Chiefs DST
Large-Field GPP Fliers
- Marvin Mims
- Javonte Williams
- Jaleel McLaughlin
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling
- Samaje Perine
- Skyy Moore
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
