The NFL Divisional Playoffs Dashboard
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Texans at Patriots
The Patriots will host the Texans as 15-point favorites this Saturday night. The Patriots are currently implied to score a slate-high 29.75 points. The Texans are currently implied to score a slate-low 14.75 points. There isn’t expected to be much snow, but this game will likely be played in sub-freezing temperatures. Let’s take a look at who will be taking the field.
Houston Texans
Writer: Ian Hartitz
QB – Brock Osweiler
Osweiler led the Texans to a victory over the Raiders last week, although he continued to underwhelm on the stat sheet. Overall, he threw for 168 yards and scored two total touchdowns. Osweiler has failed to surpass 275 passing yards or score more than two touchdowns in a game this season. He has a very tough matchup against a Patriots defense that limited him to just 196 passing yards on 41 attempts during the Patriots’ Week 3 win over the Texans. Osweiler is the lowest-projected QB this week by far and isn’t a recommended fantasy option.
RB – Lamar Miller
Miller tied a career-low this season by averaging just four yards per carry, and he’s failed to consistently carve up defenses all season. Overall, he averaged fewer than four yards per carry in nine of his 15 games. Miller has really struggled lately, as he’s gained just 136 yards on his last 53 carries. He now has a very tough matchup against a Patriots defense that allowed the third-fewest average fantasy points per game to running backs this season.
Miller will also have to overcome his historical struggle to get much of anything going as an underdog:
Per our Trends tool, Miller has averaged 5.48 additional DK points as a favorite over the past three seasons. He’s also been much more consistent as a favorite. Miller’s lack of a receiving workload won’t help his cause, as he’s been targeted fewer than three times in four consecutive games. He’s priced at $7,000 on FanDuel and has a 4.3-point projected floor.
RB – Jonathan Grimes and Alfred Blue
The two backups combined for six carries last week and shouldn’t be considered fantasy options this week due to their lack of a role in the offense.
WR – DeAndre Hopkins
Nuk has quietly been solid during his last four games, averaging 16 DK points with 75 percent Consistency. Still, he was brutally inefficient for the entire regular season, as his averages of 1.3 fantasy points and 6.2 yards per target each rank outside of the top-90 among all wide receivers. Overall, Hopkins posted a season-long -2.04 Plus/Minus. He’s expected to see a lot of Malcolm Butler, PFF’s No. 3 cornerback in coverage this season. Butler did a good job limiting Hopkins during their first matchup this season, as Hopkins converted his eight targets into a 4-56-0 line. Hopkins is priced at $5,800 on DK and has five to eight percent FantasyLabs projected ownership.
WR – Will Fuller
Fuller hasn’t surpassed 60 receiving yards or scored a touchdown in a game since Week 4. He has a tough matchup this week against a Patriots defense that has excelled at preventing big pass plays. Overall, they allowed just five passes of 40-plus yards this season – tied for the second-best mark in the league. Fuller will likely see a lot of Logan Ryan, PFF’s 22nd-highest graded cornerback this season. He’s priced at $3,600 on DK and his 1.3-point projected floor is the third-lowest mark among all WRs priced over $3,500 on DK.
WR – Keith Mumphery
The Texans dressed only three wide receivers last week, yet Mumphery was targeted just once and didn’t record a catch. He shouldn’t be considered a fantasy option this week due to his minuscule role in the offense.
TE – Colton John Fiedorowicz and Ryan Griffin
Big thanks to Matthew Freedman for pointing out our friend C.J. Fiedorowicz has an even more obscure name than previously thought.
Anyway, Fiedorowicz’s once strong role in the offense has diminished due to the emergence of Griffin. Fiedorowicz and Griffin have been targeted 25 and 18 times, respectively, over the past four weeks. They’ve combined to gain 245 yards and score a touchdown. This production would be decent if it was for one tight end, but unfortunately neither TE has managed to earn ‘featured’ status, and both have continued to be involved in the offense. Osweiler has targeted his tight ends on 16.7 percent of his passes over the past 12 months – nearly five percent more often than any other QB on the slate — but both players will continue to be volatile fantasy options with minimal ceilings and low floors as long as their reps continue to be split.
Fiedorowicz is the more expensive option on both DK and FD this week. He’s a better bargain on FD, where his $5,200 price tag comes with an 85 percent Bargain Rating and two to four percent FantasyLabs projected ownership. Both TEs have a tough matchup against a Patriots defense that allowed the sixth-fewest average fantasy points per game to TEs this season.
New England Patriots
Writer: Joe Holka
QB – Tom Brady
Brady finished the regular season with the second-highest Total QBR and yards per attempt mark, according to Player Profiler. However, even with the highest team total on the slate and the second-highest projected ceiling of any quarterback on DraftKings, there are plenty of reasons to be concerned. Per our Trends tool, quarterbacks as double-digit home favorites typically perform below salary-based expectations.
Brady historically has performed worse than average in these same situations yet still tends to be highly-owned.
He’ll face a Texans defense that gave up the third-fewest DraftKings points to quarterbacks this season and ranks fifth in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) against the pass. The Texans defense allowed fewer than 250 passing yards per game this season and often funneled offensive production toward the run game.
Brady carries risk in cash games as the lowest-rated QB in the Levitan Player Model on DraftKings but still has upside in GPPs, as he’s thrown for multiple touchdowns in nine of 12 games this season. However, he’ll likely come with high ownership: He’s projected at 21-25 percent in the DraftKings Quarter Millionaire tournament.
RB – LeGarrette Blount
The massive spread (-15.5) in this contest could favor the run game. Historically, RBs in similar situations have performed above salary-based expectations on FanDuel:
Blount is a TD- and game-flow dependent power runner who needs clock-killing time to be effective. It makes sense that he smashes in games like these:
He led the league in red-zone carries and finished second in total touchdowns. As good as the Texans defense is, it’s been average on the ground, ranking 17th in rush DVOA. Blount always has a good chance to score a TD and has by far the most opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the last four games (16) of any other running back on the slate, per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report. Blount is currently projected for 17-20 percent ownership in the Saturday Playoff Special on FD and owns the third-highest projected ceiling at the position.
RB – Dion Lewis and James White
Leave it to Bill Belichick to ruin the value of two good RBs. There’s plenty of receiving work to go around, but as long as both White and Lewis are splitting this role, neither one is likely to be dependable or productive enough to roster in cash games. In tournaments, you could do worse than a dart throw at one of these backs against a Houston defense that ranks 28th at defending RBs out of the backfield. Lewis and White come in as the fourth- and sixth-rated RBs, respectively, in the Tournament Model on DK. Lewis has a slightly higher ceiling (20 points) at nine to 12 percent projected ownership, whereas White has an 18.3-point projected ceiling at only two to four percent projected ownership. Pick your poison.
WR – Julian Edelman
His massive volume over the past four weeks is extremely appealing for cash games:
His 36.64 percent target share over the last four games is more than six percent larger than that of any other wide receiver on the slate. His matchup isn’t fantastic against Kareem Jackson in the slot, but it is the most favorable in comparison to his teammates, per Pro Football Focus. Per our Trends tool, Houston has allowed slot receivers projected over 10 FD points to perform above expectations this season:
There are game-flow concerns, but if the Patriots get up big, Edelman will likely be a significant part of it. He is currently rated as the top WR in our Tournament Model on FD with a Bargain Rating of 96 percent. Edelman is projected for chalky 21-25 percent ownership but has the fourth-highest floor on the slate.
WR – Michael Floyd, Chris Hogan, and Malcolm Mitchell
No WR for the Patriots really stands out besides Edelman in the FD Tournament Model: Floyd, Hogan, and Mitchell all have projected ceilings between 11 and 14 points. However, they are also projected to be very low-owned: With the highest team total on the slate, finding a low-owned producer from this offense could be the key to taking down a GPP on this small slate.
Mitchell missed Week 17 with a knee injury but should be fine for this game; his price has dropped more than $300 over the past month. Per our NFL Matchups tool, Mitchell has the toughest matchup of the three WRs, as he will run the majority of his routes against A.J. Bouye, PFF’s third-ranked coverage corner.
Hogan out-snapped Floyd 64 to 49 in Week 17, but all of these guys are seeing less than 14 percent of Brady’s targets.
TE – Martellus Bennett
Bennett has some contrarian GPP appeal as a volatile option who has shown big upside this season on DK:
He is a risky play against the No. 2 ranked defense against TEs, per DVOA. That said, he is currently rated fourth in our DK Tournament Model with the second-highest projected ceiling at the position and comes with just nine to 12 percent projected ownership.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
