In last week’s slate breakdown I went over some of the basics surrounding the differences between these short slates of games. For those that didn’t have a chance to read through last week’s column, I’ll summarize below.
- Don’t worry about leaving a bit of salary on the table. Even more than the regular season, focus on getting your optimal plays into your lineup. If that means you have an extra $1,000 to $2,000 of your budget remaining, don’t fret over it.
- There will be overlap. With such a limited player pool it’s inevitable that our lineups will have a significant amount of overlap. This recent article from JayCabay12 offers a great look at being contrarian while still utilizing chalk plays. It’s not necessarily aimed at short slates specifically, but the ideas within the article will prove useful in your lineup construction this week.
- Be mindful of your game selection. While this is something we should be doing every week, it’s very important on these short slates. With the significant amount of overlap that is likely to occur, the level of variance will increase. This can lead to many head-to-head matchups being decided by only a player or two. Keep this in mind when determining how much of your bankroll to utilize and how you will distribute it between the different formats.
With that out of the way, let’s get into this four-game divisional slate.
Green Bay at Arizona (-7)
Implied Total: 21.5 – 28.5, O/U: 50
Aaron Rodgers limped into the playoffs, averaging only 215 passing yards and a touchdown over the final three regular season games. He managed to throw a couple of touchdown passes last weekend, but was very inefficient in doing so, completing only 58.33% of his passes while averaging 5.83 yards per attempt. This was despite facing a Washington defense that had allowed the likes of Kellen Moore, Sam Bradford and others to complete 64.81% of their passes, while averaging 7.82 yards per attempt over the previous month.
Rodgers is now likely down Davante Adams – though that may not be a bad thing depending upon your opinion of the young wideout – and will have to deal with a vastly superior secondary in Arizona. Pile on the fact that in the four games that the Packers have been a road dog over the previous two seasons Rodgers has posted a mere 10 DK points on three separate occasions and I have real doubts about his chances this weekend.
I do believe there’s merit to Rodgers in large-field GPPs though, as he’s priced above Carson Palmer and within $300 of Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger. If given a choice between these four all at a comparable price point or paying up for either Cam Newton or Tom Brady, I’d imagine the public will shy away from Rodgers, keeping his ownership quite low.
Eddie Lacy and James Starks shared time in the backfield last weekend and saw comparable success – Lacy rushed for 63 yards and a touchdown, while Starks had 53 rushing yards, a touchdown and two receptions for 12 yards. Starks did out-snap Lacy 33-27 on the day, but it should also be noted that both players lost snaps to Randall Cobb, as the Packers attempted to get Cobb the ball in different ways. The Cardinals have an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.4 and were fourth in rushing yards allowed to the running back position. Factor in the large spread and projected game flow and I’d be cautious with my use of either of these backs.
As mentioned above, Adams is likely to be out, which means we’ll see Jared Abbrederis in three wide receiver sets. Adams had averaged roughly six targets per game this season and I’d reasonably expect Abbrederis to pick up six to eight targets. This target projection is largely due to the fact that he will likely play out of the slot in this game, where he should avoid Patrick Peterson. This sets up well for him, but could prove to be a detriment to Randall Cobb.
Cobb will slide outside, though the Packers will continue to move him around the formation to attempt to exploit positive matchups. Peterson didn’t shadow Cobb last time, though it’s difficult to say whether the Cardinals will elect to do so this time around. Peterson will likely spend time covering both Cobb and James Jones, which could limit the upside of each player. The duo combined to account for only eight catches for 61 yards against Arizona in Week 16 and may find it just as tough this week against a very stout Cardinals defense.
As we discussed last week, Richard Rodgers is a boom/bust option at tight end. Arizona has only allowed six touchdowns to tight ends all year, but has allowed the sixth-most receptions to the position. If you’re pivoting off of the higher-priced options at tight end, Rodgers is in play at his reduced cost, and particularly on FanDuel where he has a 92% Bargain Rating.
Looking at the Cardinals offense, it all starts with Carson Palmer. Excluding Week 17’s meaningless game against the Seahawks, Palmer had averaged 301 yards and 1.75 touchdowns per game over the previous month. Green Bay has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.2 and as Kirk Cousins showed us last week, this pass defense – especially without Sam Shields – is very exploitable. Our own Bill Monighetti presented a great argument for why Palmer’s ownership levels may be lower than one may expect in this article (also, give the entire article a read, it’s well worth your time).
Has there been a chalkier play since Le’Veon Bell’s heyday last year than David Johnson this week? Johnson is our highest-projected running back by a wide margin and for good reason. Again, excluding last week’s game against Seattle, the rookie back had averaged 149.75 total yards and 1.25 touchdowns over his previous four games. As mentioned, he’s the chalk.
The trio of Cardinals receivers is all in play this week. Michael Floyd is the cheapest of the three and went for six receptions for 111 yards against Green Bay in Week 16. Floyd also has topped 100 receiving yards in three of his last five games and has also collected at least eight targets in four or the last five. He’s looked like the best wide receiver on this team down the stretch and has a great rapport with Palmer. Larry Fitzgerald hasn’t had a 100 yard receiving game since November 15, but now has a touchdown catch in each of the past two games. John Brown’s volume has been down of late – he’s averaging only 3.5 catches over the past month – but he does have three touchdown receptions over the previous four games. If you’re in search of bargain tight ends, keep looking. Jermaine Gresham and Darren Fells have combined for 34 receptions all season.
The D/ST posted 33 DK points against the Packers in Week 16 and should be in play against an offensive line that has allowed the fifth-most sacks this season.
Seattle at Carolina (-1.5)
Implied Total: 21.25 – 22.75, O/U: 44
Russell Wilson struggled last week in the frigid cold in Minnesota, but prior to that dud of a game he had averaged 272 passing yards, three touchdowns and 28 rushing yards per game over the previous seven weeks. Carolina boasts one of the best rush defenses in the league, having allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards all season. Largely due to the strength of the rush defense and this team as a whole, the Panthers have allowed the 15th-most passing yards. If Carolina is able to shut down this rushing game, we could see Wilson forced to shoulder more of the load once again.
Expectations are that Marshawn Lynch will suit up for this matchup, but we fully expected him to play last week as well. Assuming that Lynch plays, Christine Michael will likely only see a handful of carries, with Fred Jackson handling passing down work. Whichever running back starts will find it tough to muster much on the ground against a Panthers’ defense that has allowed a mere 73 rushing yards per game this year.
Doug Baldwin continued his ridiculous second half of the season, grabbing yet another touchdown last week. Baldwin now has 13 touchdown receptions over his previous nine games and due to his propensity for playing in the slot, should largely avoid Josh Norman. Baldwin is an elite play, particularly on FanDuel, where he has a 93% Bargain Rating. Jermaine Kearse and Tyler Lockett are each likely to see Norman at times and are each high-variance plays. As we touched on last week, tight end is a wasteland here; move along.
Targeting Carolina with a D/ST is less than ideal. Newton has curtailed his turnovers and only takes sacks at about the league-average rate. Additionally, the name recognition surrounding this defense will likely lead to an inflated ownership level as usual.
Turning to the Carolina side of the ball, we’ll start with Cam Newton. Newton just keeps producing, regardless of the opponent or potential game flow. He’s now posted 20 or more DK points in eight of his previous 10 games and managed 21.76 DK points against Seattle earlier this season. As a home favorite this season, Newton is averaging 26.48 DK points, has hit value in six of seven games, and is a good bet to do so once again.
Look for Jonathan Stewart to resume his role as the primary ball-carrier now that he appears to be near full health. Stewart actually had his best fantasy game of the season against this tough Seattle rush defense – they’ve allowed the fewest DK points to opposing running back this year – hitting pay dirt twice. With the limited options available at the position, Stewart’s heavy workload – he’s averaging 17 carries per game and has eight games with 20 or more – makes him an appealing play.
Ted Ginn will return from injury and is always in play as a GPP option. Ginn has four games with multiple touchdown receptions this year, but Seattle’s propensity for keeping everything in front of them – they’ve allowed the second-fewest passing plays of 30 or more yards all season – may test Ginn’s playmaking ability. In Ginn’s absence in Week 17, Devin Funchess stepped up with a seven reception, 120 yard, and one touchdown performance. Funchess did have five receiving touchdowns this year, but carries a large amount of risk. Corey Brown and Jerricho Cotchery have both been receiving snaps, but are highly-volatile options.
Greg Olsen is our highest-projected tight end this week and, particularly on FanDuel, is probably the best value at the position. As a home favorite this season, Olsen has averaged 15 DK points per game. He’s been down a bit of late, but had seven receptions for 131 yards and a touchdown against Seattle earlier this year.
The Carolina D/ST have been solid all season, but have also had more down weeks than you may expect for a unit at their price point. Opposing D/ST units posted only a single double-digit DK fantasy point day against Seattle over the final nine weeks of the regular season, with two actually posting negative outings.
Kansas City at New England (-5)
Implied Total: 18.5 – 23.5, O/U: 42
The Patriots have allowed 306 passing yards and 2.33 passing touchdowns per game over the previous three weeks. With the Chiefs sitting as a five-point underdog, we may have to see Alex Smith throw the ball more than usual. In the four games the Chiefs have been a three or more point underdog this season, Smith has averaged 290 passing yards, 0.75 touchdowns and 25 rushing yards. His receiving options are sparse, but he is cheap and should have very low ownership if you’re looking to be contrarian at the position.
Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West continue to split snaps in this backfield, a trend that should continue this week. Ware got the work late in the game with the Chiefs running out the clock. If they fall behind, I’d expect West to see a bigger share of the workload though. The Patriots are 10th in rushing yards allowed to the running back position, so it’ll be tough sledding again for this backfield as a whole.
Now that Jeremy Maclin is looking iffy to play this weekend, this group of wide receivers may be unplayable. Someone is bound to see an uptick in targets, but who? Maclin is such an essential part of this offense; it’s difficult to forecast how Andy Reid will adjust with him out of the picture. Albert Wilson and Chris Conley should slot in as the starters, and while Wilson is technically ahead of Conley on the depth chart, Conley’s size/speed combo makes him the more intriguing option of the two.
The real beneficiary if Maclin sits should be Travis Kelce. Kelce came through in a huge way last week, grabbing eight receptions for 128 yards. There are a couple of concerns regarding him though. The first being the Patriots exceptional defense against tight ends all season – they’ve allowed the fourth-fewest points to the position – and Belichick’s propensity for taking away the opposing team’s top weapon. With no Maclin, that focus is likely to shift to Kelce.
This D/ST is opportunistic and the total is extremely low in this game. It’s difficult to start a defense against Tom Brady at home in the playoffs though.
Speaking of Brady, his numbers have been down of late. He’s now failed to top 20 DK points in a game in over a month. Now tasked with facing off against a Kansas City defense that has allowed only two games of 20-plus DK points over the previous 12 games and there is certainly concern surrounding his ceiling. He had a great run through the playoffs last season – totaling 10 touchdown passes in three games – and with the Patriots running game in shambles, he’ll likely be forced to air it out some. With the low total posted by Vegas, I don’t envision the Patriots needing to score a ton to come out on top in this matchup though, which may keep Belichick’s playcalling fairly conservative.
James White is a bit pricey for my liking on DraftKings, but his pass-catching skills may be needed this week if New England does in fact struggle to run the ball. He’s averaged 5.6 receptions, 63 receiving yards and has four total touchdowns over the past five weeks. The Chiefs are tough to run on, but have surrendered 5.25 receptions per game to opposing running backs over the past month. Veteran Stephen Jackson will be involved and should see the majority of the rushing duties, with a bit of Brandon Bolden sprinkled in. If Jackson is fully up to speed, he may see quite a bit of playing time. He’s capable of playing all three downs and is only $300 over the minimum on DraftKings.
Brady favorite Julian Edelman will return this week after missing the past couple of months with a broken bone in his foot. Reports have Edelman looking good in practice, but the nature of the injury combined with his playing style leaves me a bit hesitant. Edelman relies on quick, precise route-running – will he be able to make those same cuts? I’m not a doctor, so I honestly don’t know. But based upon the comments coming out of Patriots camp, I’d expect him to see his usual 8-10 targets regardless. Danny Amendola has played well in Edelman’s absence, but will now move back to his complementary role. His price is inflated on DraftKings, but he’s actually a decent value on FanDuel at $6,200 as the likely third option in this passing game. Brandon LaFell has struggled and is a risky play, but could be worth a flyer on DraftKings, where he holds a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Tight end Rob Gronkowski has been limited in practice all week, but all indications are that he will play. The worry here is Eric Berry and a Chief’s defense that has allowed the second-fewest DraftKings points to the tight end position all year. I’d expect Berry – who held the fourth-best coverage rank per PFF this year – to be glued to Gronk. His salary has come down, but is still tough to fit into a lineup.
Alex Smith just doesn’t turn the ball over much, which limits the upside of playing a D/ST against the Chiefs.
Pittsburgh at Denver (-7.5)
Implied Total: No line O/U: No line
Questions abound regarding the health and availability of this Steelers’ offense. Ben Roethlisberger was limited in practice on Thursday, but is fully expected to play. Roethlisberger’s Week 15 fantasy explosion appears to have been a bit of an anomaly – that was the only 300 yard passing game Denver allowed all season. Game script worked in the favor of the Steelers’ passing game in that matchup and the Broncos were without both starting safeties. Factor in his home/road splits – he’s averaged 27.5 DK points at home versus 16.4 on the road the past two seasons – and questions surrounding Antonio Brown‘s availability, and he carries more risk than usual this week.
DeAngelo Williams is not expected to play, leaving us with Fitzgerald Toussaint as the starter again. Toussaint saw 21 touches and produced 118 total yards against a tough Bengals defense last week. He’ll likely see a heavy workload again, but his day won’t get any easier against a rush defense that has allowed the third-fewest yards this season.
If Brown is cleared to play, he should see his normal target share. He’ll spend much of his time covered by the stellar Chris Harris though. Wide receiver is thin at the top – Brown is the only player priced above $7,100 – so he’s certainly an option if you’re opting to pay up. Martavis Bryant scored his first touchdown in five weeks in the Wild Card round, but still only totaled 29 receiving yards. Markus Wheaton saw only one fewer target and was on the field only 10 snaps less than Bryant last week. At their respective price points, Wheaton may offer more value.
I expect Heath Miller to be asked to stay in and help out in protection more than usual this week. With Roethlisberger ailing and Von Miller looming, Pittsburgh will need all the help they can get.
Pittsburgh’s D/ST is cheap and Peyton Manning can’t really move anymore, which should keep them on your radar. Our projections peg them as a middle of the road option on DraftKings, but they actually have the highest ceiling of any unit on FanDuel, where they also carry a 100% Bargain Rating.
Moving on to Manning, I don’t project Denver to ask him to do much. Pittsburgh’s rush defense is tough, but the Broncos will likely test it. The Steelers defense has allowed 29 passing touchdowns this year though, which could make Manning an interesting option in tournaments, given his bottom-dollar price tag.
C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman should both be busy this week and I’d expect their timeshare to continue. Each back has 24 carries over the past two weeks and it would be a bit of a surprise to see a deviation from that strategy this week. While the work will likely be there, the Steelers have been stout all year against the run, surrendering the fifth-fewest DK points to the position.
Despite Manning’s struggles this year, his two primary wide receivers managed to find some success with him behind center. Emmanuel Sanders is probably my favorite play at wide receiver this weekend. Sanders averaged 17.9 DK points per game over the first seven games of this season with Manning. He also worked over the Steelers for 10 receptions, 181 receiving yards, and a touchdown a few weeks ago and has a great price this week, particularly on DraftKings. Demaryius Thomas has been solid if unspectacular this season with Manning. While he averaged almost 98 receiving yards per game with him, he also only posted a single touchdown reception. He’s at a decent price point again this week. Neither Owen Daniels nor Vernon Davis offer much at the tight end position this week.
The Denver D/ST has been a top option all season and we project it to continue this week. They top both our DraftKings and FanDuel rankings in terms of median projection.
Good luck with your lineups this weekend and remember to check our Player News page for all relevant updates throughout the next few days.
