NFL DFS Cowboys-49ers Showdown Picks Breakdown: Will Brock Purdy Crash Back to Reality?

The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs wraps up with a matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are listed as 3.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 46.5.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

The last game of the weekend is arguably the best of the bunch. The 49ers have been extremely impressive despite being down to their third-string quarterback, while the Cowboys have as much talent as anyone.

The 49ers have an abundance of offensive weapons, headlined by star running back Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey can do everything at the running back position, and he dominated as a runner in the team’s first playoff contest. He averaged 7.9 yards per attempt en route to 119 yards, resulting in 24.6 DraftKings points.

McCaffrey’s underlying metrics weren’t quite as impressive, racking up just 48% of the team’s rushing attempts vs. the Seahawks. However, that was due to the game turning into a blowout. McCaffrey played on 74% of the team’s snaps, and he dominated the workload during the early stages of the contest. Five of Elijah Mitchell’s nine carries came in the fourth quarter, so McCaffrey could’ve seen a larger workload if needed.

McCaffrey is also an outstanding pass-catcher out of the backfield, and he had a route participation of 82% last week. He didn’t see his usual target volume, but he’s always a threat for double-digit targets.

That skill could come in handy vs. the Cowboys. Dallas has been tough against the run this season, ranking fifth in Football Outsiders rush defense DVOA, but they have struggled at defending running backs in the passing game. They’re just 21st in DVOA in that split, so McCaffrey could be much more involved as a receiver this week.