Before the season, I introduced an idea called “NFL DFS Correlation Values” where I essentially just compared the price differences between the correlations we know are positive – specifically, QBs and their WRs, QBs and Kickers, and QBs and D/STs – and see where we could find “free upside.” Read the original article here for a more in-depth explanation. Also, I made a video explaining it more in case you like that better:
Basically, the point is, we know that there is a positive correlation between a D/ST and the QB of the same team. We can look at the slate and the price differences between all the QBs and D/STs on the weekend and see which have the biggest price discrepancies. Really, it boils down to this – if you’re going to take a QB, how much does it cost you to take his D/ST as well? If it’s essentially nothing – maybe they’re minimum salary – then you’re more-or-less getting that “free upside” I mentioned above.
Moving on, here’s the data for Week 5. (Everything is sorted alphabetically.)
DraftKings: QB and WR Correlation Values
These are fairly consistent since last week — if you want to pair Michael Vick with Antonio Brown, it’s going to cost you the most, or $3,600 in correlation value. And again, the Seahawks are the “best value” as they don’t really have a true WR1.
The true values are really found in the middle and with injuries — if you’re taking Andrew Luck, it makes a ton of sense to target either T.Y. Hilton or Donte Moncrief because of how cheap they are as his top receivers and how much correlation value you’re getting as a result.
The Ravens are up there this week, but it’s more of a Seahawks situation, as Kamar Aiken becomes Joe Flacco’s number-one target with Steve Smith out in Week 5. The Saints with Drew Brees and Brandin Cooks should be amazing — and I point it out every week — but maybe it just isn’t happening this year. However, there’s a lot of value in that pairing if you’re taking Brees (he was a top-three QB in Week 4, for what it’s worth).
FanDuel: QB and WR Correlation Values
FanDuel and DraftKings pricing is fairly similar this week, so we’re seeing the same values as a result. You’re getting a really good value on Tom Brady and Julian Edelman — even better than DraftKings above — but that makes sense because Edelman is more valuable on a full PPR site.
The Cardinals represent a lot of potential value this week — pairing Carson Palmer with any of his top receivers in Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, or Michael Floyd represents very good correlation values. Further, after a tough loss at home to the Rams, people might have recency bias and be a little off the Cardinals.
FanDuel: QB and K Correlation Values
I usually advocate for paying up for a kicker, especially in big GPPs on FanDuel. Most users don’t do that (they pick their kickers last based on remaining salary), so most of the top kickers are going to be underowned. You also get the benefit of getting the free correlation between the top QBs and that kicker. Because of the small difference in the top and bottom kickers, it makes sense to really focus on getting correlation into your lineups when possible.
FanDuel: K and D/ST Correlation Value
This isn’t quite as important as the ones above — I would rank them in the order of this article, in fact — but it can be a nice way to pick a defense or kicker if they are the missing link in your lineup and you’re torn between a couple picks. The range of outcomes isn’t as large as a different position, say wide receivers, so getting free correlation is a nice end-of-your-lineup bonus.
I hope you find these useful again and good luck in Week 5!
