The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
It all comes down to this. Four teams vie for a chance to play in Super Bowl LVII. Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for the NFL Championship Round.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Hurts vs. San Francisco 49ers – $7,200 on DraftKings, $9,200 on FanDuel
After a dominant performance in the NFC Divisional Round, Jalen Hurts projects for the highest ceiling, despite facing a San Francisco 49ers defense ranked first in DVOA (per Football Outsiders).
Despite missing three weeks with a shoulder injury, Hurts looks to be one of the more elite quarterbacks in the league. The third-year starter has averaged a career-high 246.7 passing yards per game and a 66.5% completion rate–certainly a breakout performance. The Eagles are a 2.5-point home favorite in a matchup with a 46.5-point total, which may be a nod to the stout 49ers defense. However, the Eagles have been one of the more balanced offenses in the league, using a pass-to-run play-calling ratio of 51%/49 (per RotoViz), calling a play on average at lighting-fast 26.9 seconds, likely due to the dual-threat nature of Hurts, who averages 11 rushing attempts per game and 4.61 yards per carry.
To add, there are plenty of weapons in the Eagles’ receiving corps, namely AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, as the main contributors in moving the offense through the air. They can be configured in a variety of stacking configurations. In a dominant Divisional round performance, Hurts threw for 154 yards and two touchdowns, also recording one rushing touchdown and 34 yards on nine carries.
Despite what looks to be a more difficult matchup with a low total, the dual-threat ability of Hurts, combined with elite weapons in the receiving corps, makes him a prime candidate to reach an 85th-percentile outcome.
Looking at the Trends tool, when Hurts appears in matchups above a 46-point total, he averages 27.81 actual DraftKings points, with a +5.46 Plus/Minus and an 84.6% consistency rating.
Top Value: Joe Burrow at Kansas City Chiefs – $6,800 on DraftKings, $8,300 on FanDuel
Joe Burrow projects as a top value option on DraftKings, squaring off against the Kansas City Chiefs, a defense ranked 17 in DVOA– a more ideal matchup on paper.
After a dominant 27-10 performance in the Divisional round over the Buffalo Bills, Burrow heads to another difficult environment in Arrowhead Stadium in a marquee matchup with shootout potential written all over it, with Vegas setting the total at 48 points.
Burrow has positioned himself as one of the top talents in the NFL, averaging 279.7 passing yards per game and 12 touchdowns. In the win against the Bills, Burrow threw for 242 yards and two touchdowns, despite less-than-ideal conditions.
According to PFF, the Chiefs rank fifth in overall defense, which may signal more issues for the third-year quarterback than expected. With a pass-skewed ratio (61%/39% pass-to-run), Burow’s discounted price tag compared to Hurts and Patrick Mahomes makes him a fantasy-relevant option, in a matchup with stacking options aplenty, with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Hayden Hurst and even Joe Mixon on the Bengals’ offense and Cheifs’ skill players in Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Jerick McKinnon all as viable bring-backs.
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NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Christian McCaffrey at Philadelphia Eagles – $8,000 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey again projects for the highest ceiling among running backs this week, facing a weaker-than-expected Philadelphia Eagles defense ranking 21st in rush DVOA.
An elite option at running back, McCaffrey is an integral part of the 49ers’ offense, with 31.5% of the workload in the backfield, also averaging 14.5 carries per game, 4.69 yards per attempt, and 5.9 targets per game, for 8.9 yards per reception. Also, McCaffrey is constantly in the conversation for the 100-yard rushing bonus and has tremendous touchdown upside, recording at least one touchdown in six games since joining the 49ers in Week 7.
In the 19-12 Divisional round win over the Dallas Cowboys, McCaffrey rushed for 35 yards on 10 attempts with one touchdown, also catching six passes for 22 yards. Despite the more ideal matchup against a defense with trouble defending the run, the 49ers are a 2.5-point road underdog. Despite the outcome, the 49ers should lean on McCaffrey’s dual-threat ability to carry the offense. Expect additional carries and volume for McCaffrey, further adding to his upside.
With THE BLITZ, Joe Mixon projects for the highest ceiling among running backs in the Championship round. Priced $1,500 less than McCaffrey on DraftKings, Mixon faces a Chiefs defense ranked 15th in run DVOA, which might look more difficult compared to an elite running back like McCaffrey.
However, like McCaffrey, Mixion is a dual-threat option at running back. This season, Mixon is averaging 15 rushing attempts per game with a 3.88 per-yard average in carries. Further, Mixon is also averaging 5.4 targets per game, a career-high with 4.3 receiving yards per game. As an integral part of the Bengals’ offense, look for Mixon to be a pivot from McCaffrey with tremendous touchdown upside.
Top Value: Jerick McKinnon vs. Cincinnati Bengals – $5,400 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel
Jerick McKinnon projects as a top value in a matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, who rank 14th in rushing DVOA, a more ideal matchup in a game with the highest total.
The veteran running back is responsible for 17% of the workload in the backfield, sharing time with Isiah Pacheco. This season, McKinnon has averaged 4.2 rushing attempts per game and 4.04 yards per carry, also seeing 4.2 targets per game in a pass-heavy Chiefs offense, with 9.1 yards per reception.
In the thrilling 27-20 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Divisional round, McKinnon rushed 11 times for 25 yards. However, with guaranteed volume, look for McKinnon to be a salary relief option, also considered as a bring-back option in Burrow-led stacks.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Ja’Marr Chase at Kansas City Chiefs – $7,600 on DraftKings, $8,600 on FanDuel
Ja’Marr Chase projects for the highest ceiling among wide receivers for the Championship round, facing a Kansas City Chiefs defense ranked 20th in pass DVOA in what may be one of the more anticipated matchups of the season and a likely ideal matchup for the star receiver.
One of the elite receiving options in the league, Chase is responsible for a 30% target share and is the preferred option for Joe Burrow, averaging 11.2 targets per game and 12 yards per reception. Further, look for Chase to be a prime candidate for the 100-yard receiving bonus, reaching the mark in four of the Bengals’ 18 games this season and also recording a touchdown in nine games. Chase was targeted eight times in the 27-10 win over the Bills, catching five passes for 61 yards and one touchdown. Look for Chase to be a dominant producer in a matchup with a 48-point total, signaling shootout potential.
Aside from the volume, Chase is the dangerous target in the red zone, seeing 24 red zone targets in the regular season, per AddMoreFunds. Chase’s volume and touchdown upside consistently make him a prime candidate to have the slate-breaking ability and reach an 85th-percentile outcome.
Top Value: Deebo Samuel at Philadelphia Eagles – $5,700 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel
Deebo Samuel projects as a top value option this week in a matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles, who rank first in pass DVOA.
This season, Samuel leads the 49ers receiving corps, responsible for 23% of the target share, averaging 7.2 targets per game and 11.3 yards per reception. Aside from the passing volume, Samuel also sees 3.2 rushing attempts per game, averaging 5.52 yards per carry, splitting time in the backfield with Christian McCaffrey.
Despite missing several weeks this season, Samuel has seen at least four targets in 14 games, reaching the 100-receiving yard mark in two games. While the touchdown upside may not be there, Samuel makes up for it in volume, adding to his fantasy relevance. In the victory over the Dallas Cowboys, Samuel was targeted a team-leading seven times, catching four passes for 45 yards, also rushing for 11 yards on four attempts
If the volume and production should continue for Samuel, his digestible salary on DraftKings makes him an easy pick to open up pathways to higher-priced skill-position players. He can even serve as a cheap bring-back in Jalen Hurts-led Eagles stacks.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce vs. Cincinnati Bengals – $7,800 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel
Travis Kelce projects for the highest ceiling among tight ends on the slate in a matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals, who rank 12th in pass DOVA–a less-than-ideal matchup against an almost unfadeable skill position player.
Kelce continues to dominate, averaging 9.4 targets per game with 11.6 yards per reception and 14 touchdowns, tying a career-high. Also responsible for a team-leading 24% target share as part of the hyper-effective Chiefs receiving corps. In the 27-20 Divisional round win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, Kelce was targeted a team-leading 14 times, catching 12 passes for 98 yards and two touchdowns. An unstoppable force, most of his production is in the red zone, where he has a league-leading 30 red zone targets, making him a prime candidate for tremendous touchdown upside.
Despite the almost absurd price tag on DraftKings, Kelce may be a given, especially facing a tough Bengals defense and in a matchup with a high total.
Top Value: Hayden Hurst at Kansas City Chiefs – $3,000 on DraftKings, $5,400 on FanDuel
Hayden Hurst projects as a top value at tight end given his discounted salary on DraftKings and likely volume from quarterback Joe Burrow. The veteran tight end, in his first year with the Bengals, has a modest 14% target share, which is third in the Bengals’ receiving corps, averaging 5.2 targets per game and eight yards per reception.
In the Divisional Round win over the Buffalo Bills, Hurst was targeted six times, catching five passes for 59 yards and one touchdown. Should the likely volume continue, especially in a high-total matchup, look for Hurst to be a viable fantasy option in a position usually dominated by one individual.
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