NFL DFS Buccaneers vs. Patriots Showdown Breakdown (Sunday, Oct. 3): Tom Brady Returns to New England

NFL Week 4 features a Sunday Night Football matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New England Patriots at 8:20 p.m. ET.

If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Tom Brady at Captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $19,200 as opposed to $12,800.

FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: Get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.

Studs

Brady is the most expensive player in this game, and he looks as good as ever at 44 years old. He’s scored at least 30.64 DraftKings points in all three games this season, and he leads the league with 10 touchdown passes. He’s also averaged a whopping 362.3 yards per game to start the year, which is the best mark of his storied career.

A lot has been made of the “Brady vs. Belichick” matchup, but last I checked, Belichick will spend this game on the sidelines. Brady will actually be taking on the Patriots’ defense, and that’s a very tough matchup. They rank fourth in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, and Brady owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -5.0 on DraftKings. That’s the worst mark on the slate by a comfortable margin.

That said, Brady and the Bucs are favored by 6.5 points in this matchup, and Brady has crushed in nine previous starts as a road favorite with Tampa Bay. He’s averaged 27.64 DraftKings points in those contests, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +6.97 (per the Trends tool).

Brady leads all players Median and Ceiling Projection, and he should be a popular choice at the Captain and MVP spots.

Brady’s top two pass-catchers are next on the pricing spectrum. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans rank first and second on the team in targets, with Godwin racking up 26 and Evans racking up 25 through the first three weeks. That said, neither player has racked up more than 18.4% of the team’s targets this season, so their targets have been spread out.

Of the two, Evans stands out as my preferred option. He leads the duo in air yards, first-read percentage, and end-zone targets, meaning he’s secured the more valuable targets so far this season.

It has not been a pretty start to Mac Jones’ rookie campaign. He hasn’t played as poorly as some of the other rookie quarterbacks, but he’s still averaged just 5.4 adjusted yards per attempt with two touchdowns and three interceptions.

Can he turn things around vs. the Buccaneers? It’s possible. Their defense was one of the best in football last year, but they’ve struggled to start the new season. They rank 17th in pass defense DVOA, and they’ve already ceded some huge performances to Dak Prescott and Matthew Stafford. It remains to be seen if Jones can take advantage of them in the same way, but he does own an Opponent Plus/Minus of +12.8 on DraftKings. That’s the top mark on the slate by a wide margin.

Jones is also cheaper than the typical quarterback in the single-game format. He’s priced at just $9,400, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%. Overall, he owns the second-highest Ceiling Projection in our NFL Models, making him an appealing option.

Midrange

The Patriots spent a ton of money upgrading their pass-catchers in the offseason, but Jacobi Meyers has been their top option through the first three weeks. He’s racked up 24% of the team’s targets, while no one else has commanded more than 15%. He’s also tied for the team lead in air yards and has been Jones’ first read on 26% of his dropbacks.

Meyers and Jones own a correlation of +0.63 on DraftKings, so they’re pretty obvious stacking partners for the Pats in this matchup.

Leonard Fournette has emerged as the Buccaneers’ 1A option at running back. He’s garnered 24 carries so far this season, including seven of their eight running back carries in the red zone. He’s also racked up 12 targets, making him easily their most balanced running back to start the year. His usage was down a bit last week, but the Buccaneers trailed for most of that contest. If they can grab an early lead vs. the Pats, he should return to his normal workload.

The absence of Giovani Bernard is an interesting wrinkle in this matchup. He led the Bucs’ backfield in snaps last week and racked up 10 targets, but the team trailed for most of that contest. They likely won’t need a pure pass-catching running back this week, but Fournette could fill that role if they do. That gives him a bit more upside than usual.

The Pats’ running back situation is a bit more complicated. Damien Harris is their preferred between-the-tackles grinder, and he leads the team with 45 rush attempts so far this season. He’s also handled all their carries inside the five-yard line, so he’s definitely a threat to punch one in vs. the Bucs.

That said, it remains to be seen how much they’ll be able to lean on Harris. If the Pats fall behind early, they may have to abandon the run game to try and catch up. That’s what happened last week vs. the Saints, and Harris finished with just six carries for 14 yards. His lack of involvement as a pass-catcher makes him very risky in this matchup.

Antonio Brown might be the best pure value among the Bucs’ wideouts. He missed last week’s game due to COVID, but he’ll be back in the lineup vs. the Patriots. He led the team with 121 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 1.

Pro Football Focus also gives Brown the best individual matchup among the Bucs’ receiving trio this week. He’s expected to see most of his routes against J.C. Jackson, who has allowed 0.31 fantasy points per route run and a 67% catch rate so far this season.

The Patriots’ trio of Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, and Hunter Henry round out this price tier. All three players have seen between 11% and 15% of the Patriots’ targets this season, but Agholor owns the clear edge in our models. He’s tied with Meyers for the most air yards on the squad, and he also has one of their two receiving touchdowns.

Bourne is the easiest fade of the group. He’s coming off a big game last week, but that looks like a major outlier. He had just three catches for 27 yards through the first two weeks, so I have no problem avoiding him at an elevated salary and possibly inflated ownership.

Quick Hits

• Defenses and Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate your lineups around them. The Bucs Defense is priced way up at $6,600 on DraftKings, but they have done nothing to justify that price tag this year. I’m avoiding them at that salary.
• Cameron Brate ($4,200 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): There are a few key injuries to consider on this slate, and one is the injury to Rob Gronkowski. He’s been a touchdown machine through the first three weeks, and now Brate and O.J. Howard will be asked to fill that void. Brate has been significantly more involved than Howard to start the year, making him the clear choice on FanDuel given the difference in salary.
• Jonnu Smith ($4,000 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Smith has actually seen more targets this season than Henry, he just hasn’t done very much with them. He’s logged at least five targets in each of the first three weeks, but he’s coming off his worst game of the season last week vs. the Saints. He’s a solid bounce-back candidate.
• Ronald Jones ($2,000 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel): Jones has been largely an afterthought in the Bucs’ backfield so far this year. The injury to Bernard could open up some additional snaps for him, but it’s just as likely that those snaps go to Fournette. That said, he doesn’t need to do much to pay off his current salary, so he stands out as a solid points-per-dollar play in our models.
• Tyler Johnson ($1,600 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): Tyler Johnson could also see a few additional snaps this week given the injury to Gronkowski. He’s been the Bucs’ clear WR4 this season, relegating Scotty Miller to reserve duty.
• J.J. Taylor ($1,200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): The other big injury is the absence of James White. He’s the Patriots’ pass-catching running back, so he could have seen a lot of work in this contest. With him out of the lineup, Taylor and Brandon Bolden will compete to fill his shoes. Bolden seems like the preferred option for the time being, but Taylor is younger and arguably more explosive. He put together an impressive preseason, so he’s definitely worth some consideration.
• O.J. Howard ($1,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Howard actually owns the top projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings in our NFL Models. He only needs to catch a couple of passes to return value, and he should see a nice boost in snaps sans Gronkowski.
• Brandon Bolden ($600 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): If Bolden does secure the White job, this price is going to be an absolute joke. He played on 33 snaps last week and saw four targets, and he even had two rushing attempts in the red zone. Bolden vs. Taylor is going to be one of the more important questions on this slate since one will almost certainly be in the winning lineup. Our models give the slight edge to Taylor, but it would not shock me if old man Belichick rode the known commodity in Bolden.