NFL DFS and betting analyst Chris Raybon previews every Week 4 NFL matchup below. He highlights cash-game and GPP plays for each game before revealing his lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Football Team at Falcons
DFS Plays
Taylor Heinicke has upside against a Falcons defense that has allowed 7.6 yards per attempt and eight TDs with no interceptions through the air in addition to 34.7 yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry in the ground to opposing QBs. Heinicke can be stacked with Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas. Curtis Samuel’s return should take some of the defensive attention away from McLaurin and Thomas, but he’s still on wait-and-see status for me as far as rostering.
Antonio Gibson also has high upside at an affordable price tag against a Falcons defense that is ranked 24th in rushing DVOA. Gibson will likely have to do most of his damage on the ground, as the Falcons are ranked sixth in DVOA on passes to running backs, meaning he’d most likely flourish in a positive game script. That puts a Gibson-Washington DST stack in play, especially given how inept the Falcons offense has looked most of the year and the pressure Washington has been getting.
Falcons head coach Arthur Smith knows the fantasy community is pissed at his usage of Kyle Pitts. I think it’s still smart to have Pitts exposure in GPPs; his breakout game is coming. Washington has allowed the 12th-most catches (16) and 16th-most yards (157) to tight ends.
Calvin Ridley is averaging a disappointing 8.8 yards per catch, but he’s still averaging 9.7 targets per game with a low of eight and is in play against a Washington defense allowing the second-most schedule-adjusted targets per game to opposing No. 1 wide receivers (11.0).
- Cash Plays: None
- GPP Plays: Taylor Heinicke, Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas, Washington DST, Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts
Betting Pick
After a one-week reprieve against the Giants, the Falcons are back to being out-manned in the trenches. The Falcons are ranked 19th in PFF’ss pass blocking grade (54.9) and 21st in run blocking grade (59.8). They face a Washington defense that ranks fourth in pass rushing grade (81.9) and 11th in run defense grade (64.9). Washington’s coverage has been an issue, but will a Matt Ryan-led offense that’s already averaging under 5 yards of average depth of target be able to exploit a defense that, per Pro Football Reference, is fourth in pressure rate (29.9%)? Washington has had a disappointing start, ranking 23rd in overall DVOA, per Football Outsiders, but Atlanta — despite its win over the Giants last week — rates as the worst team in the NFL.
Pick: Washington to -1 (-120)
Lions at Bears
DFS Plays
The Lions coaching staff reportedly wants to increase the workload of D’Andre Swift, who saw a season-high 21 touches last week and is averaging 17.3 on the season. He should have success against a Bears defense that is ranked 17th in rushing DVOA and 23rd in DVOA on passes to running backs.
This is a tough matchup for T.J. Hockenson against a Bears defense that has allowed only 3.0 catches for 30.3 yards per game to opposing TEs.
For the Bears, David Montgomery is the strongest play against a Lions defense that is ranked 26th in rushing DVOA. Montgomery is averaging 17.3 touches per game. A Montgomery-Bears DST stack is in play as the Bears are three-point home favorites with one of the lowest totals on the board (42).
If Andy Dalton (questionable – knee) starts, Allen Robinson II and Darnell Mooney become GPP options. If Justin Fields starts, I’d play him solo due to his rushing ability and it would also bring the Lions DST into play given Fields showing thus far.
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- Cash Plays: None
- GPP Plays: D’Andre Swift, David Montgomery, Lions DST (if Fields starts), Justin Fields (if he starts), Allen Robinson (if Dalton starts), Darnell Mooney (if Dalton starts), Bears DST
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Betting Pick
The Bears rank 28th in overall DVOA and the Lions rank 29th. But while the Lions have shown flashes at times, mounting a furious comeback against the 49ers in Week 1, taking a lead into halftime in Week 2, and coming within a record-breaking field goal of beating the Ravens in Week 3, the Bears have looked listless for all but the fourth quarter of a three-point win over the Bengals in Week 2.
Per our Action Labs data, Divisional Dogs that open at a TD or less are covering at a 58% clip since 2003.
I grabbed the Lions at +6 when lines first dropped and will consider middling with the Bears if the line drops below the key number of 3, but at 3 or better, the Lions are the only play.
Pick: Lions +3 (to +3), middle with Bears -2.5 or better if you got Lions +6 or better
Titans at Jets
DFS Plays
Derrick Henry is averaging 30.7 touches for 152.7 yards and 1.0 TDs per game. He’s the top play on the slate in a game he may have to be leaned on for even more work. The Jets have allowed the most points to opposing DSTs, so Henry can be stacked with the Titans DST in GPPs.
Nick Wesbrook-Ikhene posted a 4-53-1 line last week in a full-time role with Brown and Jones going down and should operate as Ryan Tannehill’s top wide receiver. Westbrook-Ikhene is worth rostering in order to jam in Derrick Henry and Cooper Kupp.
Anthony Firkser is also slated to make his return and is worth a dart throw in large-field GPPs.
The Jets DST can be plugged in as the cheapest DST on the slate against the Titans offense that was allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing DSTs even with Brown and Jones in the lineup for most of the season.
Corey Davis could be in line for a bounce-back performance against a Titans defense that is ranked 22nd in DVOA versus No. 1 wide receivers.
Michael Carter has averaged 12.0 touches per game over the past two games and could continue to see his workload increase as he progresses through Year 1. The Titans are the weakest defense the Jets have faced and the best matchup for Jets running backs thus far, ranking 29th in rushing DVOA and 23rd in DVOA on passes to running backs. Carter is worth a GPP dart throw stacked with Jets DST.
- Cash Plays: Derrick Henry, Nick Westbrook-ikhene, Jets DST
- GPP Plays: Anthony Firkser, Titans DST, Michael Carter, Corey Davis
Betting Pick
This is my favorite under of the week. The Titans will be without wide receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, The Jets are averaging 6.7 points per game and are yet to score more than 14. Both teams are slow-paced: Per Football Outsiders, the Jets rank 27th in first-half pace and 20th in situation-neutral pace, while the Titans rank 23rd in the first half and 21st in neutral situations. The Jets defense has been better than expected given its talent level, ranking 16th in DVOA. And most of the Titans’ defensive issues have come via explosive plays on third and fourth down; on early downs, they are second in pass success rate, according to Sharp Football Stats.
I like the under down to 43, but it’s worth noting that getting under 44.5 tends to be a profitable play because games are unlikely to land on a total of 45, because scores that total 45, such as 24-21, 28-17 and 35-10, normally require six TDs plus extra points and only one field goal, which is unlikely in a game with a relatively low total in the mid-40s.
Pick: Under 44.5 (to 43)
Browns at Vikings
DFS Plays
Odell Beckham Jr. returned to play 85% of the snaps last week, drawing nine targets and a carry — good enough usage to fire him up in GPPs this week against a Vikings secondary that is ranked dead last in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers.
The Vikings also rank 27th in rushing DVOA, so Nick Chubb and Karrem Hunt are in play as well.
Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are always in play as long as they’re healthy. Jefferson should have the best matchup, as Browns cornerback Denzel Ward has struggled covering No. 1 wide receivers, resulting in a 26th-place ranking for Cleveland in DVOA versus WR1s.The Browns rank fourth in DVOA versus non-WR1/2s but 15th versus tight ends, so this could be another game in which Tyler Conklin ourproduces K.J. Osborn.
- Cash Plays: None
- GPP Plays: Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Tyler Conklin, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Odell Beckham Jr.
Betting Pick
Both of these teams are a couple of plays away from being undefeated, but since the Browns ended up 2-1 and the Vikings 1-2, we’re getting value on the home dog in what I project as a coin-flip game. Browns coach Kevin Stefanski normally has a coaching edge over his opponent, but he won’t have one in this spot against his former boss, Mike Zimmer.
Zimmer is one of the best coaches in the NFL at preparing his team for opponents they play only once a year or less: Since taking over in 2015, the Vikings are covering at a 68% clip against divisional opponents that are not coming off a bye.
Kirk Cousins is playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, but he usually plays best in the early window, piling up 20 against the spread wins with only nine losses as a 1 p.m. ET underdog, according to our Action Labs data.
Pick: Vikings +1.5 (to a pick’em)
Colts at Dolphins
DFS Plays
Colts slot cornerback Kenny Moore is allowing a 79% completion rate and 9.2 yards per target with two TDs through three games, so this is another plus matchup for rookie Jaylen Waddle, who is averaging 7.3 catches for 55.7 yards and 0.33 TDs per game. Will Fuller ran a route on only 70% of the dropbacks last week, and his ascension looks more likely to cut into Devante Parker’s usage than Waddle’s at this point.
I’m not chasing Mike Gesicki’s big week against a Colts defense that is allowing just 3.7 catches for 34.0 yards per game to tight ends.
Myles Gaskin is also off limits, as he leads the backfield with just 13.0 touches per game. The Colts defense has been strong against the run, ranking 11th in DVOA. Indianapolis is 29th against the pass and could have the makings of a pass funnel.
Despite fading the Dolphins running game, I would still fire up their DST against Wentz, who has taken 58 sacks, thrown 16 interceptions, and fumbled 11 times in his last 15 starts dating back to the start of last season.
It doesn’t get any easier for the Colts offense with guard Quenton Nelson (ankle) going on IR, but this is still a nice spot for Jonathan Taylor as the Dolphins have allowed opposing backfields to pile up 173.0 total yards and 1.7 TDs per game. This is one of the lowest-totaled games on the board, so even though I lean toward the Dolphins winning, I believe stacking Taylor with the Colts DST makes sense against Jacoby Brissett and company.
Michael Pittman Jr. is averaging 9.3 targets per game, but has a tough matchup against Dolphins perimeter corner Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. Pittman is running only 23% of his routes from the slot. He’s in play due to volume alone.
Zach Pascal, meanwhile, has run 86% of his routes from the slot. He gets a much softer matchup against nickel corner Justin Coleman, who is ranked 99th of 108 qualified cornerbacks by PFF through three weeks. Pascal is a nice pivot off Pittman.
- Cash Plays: None
- GPP Plays: Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins DST, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Zach Pascal, Colts DST
Betting Pick
The winless Colts are desperate, and 0-3 teams facing 1-2 teams in Week 4 are 19-8 ATS since 2003. However, Carson Wentz is still not 100%, and he’s just 15-27 ATS (36%) since the start of 2018. On top of that, Dolphins coach Brian Flores is 7-2 (78%) ATS in his career coming off a multi-game losing streak.
In theory, this should be an under game, but Miami ranks second in first-half pace, and both Jacoby Brissett and Wentz are liable to create more turnovers than your average quarterback.
I’d lean Dolphins and the under but am most likely passing on this one.
Pick: Lean Dolphins -2.5 (to -2.5), under 42 (to 41)
Panthers at Cowboys
DFS Plays
Chuba Hubbard out-snapped Royce Freeman 40-11 last week and is the top cash value on the slate with Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) out.
As mentioned, this should be a Robby Anderson game. I’m willing to fade D.J. Moore this week against a Cowboys defense ranked first in DVOA versus opposing No. 1 wide receivers.
I also like rookies Terrace Marshall and Tommy Tremble in GPP, as Dallas is 32nd in DVOA versus non-WR1/2s and 30th in DVOA versus tight ends. Marshall posted season highs in catches (four), yards (48), and snap rate (62%) last week despite a positive game script. Tremble scored a rushing TD last week and is reportedly the main reason the team was comfortable with trading starter Dan Arnold. I expect Tremble to slide into Arnold’s role with Ian Thomas’s role remaining the same.
For the Cowboys, I’m rolling with their passing game over their run game, as the Panthers have allowed an NFL-low 31.3 yards per game and 2.2 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Amari Cooper, in particular, is way too cheap on DraftKings, and he and CeeDee Lamb’s matchup gets easier with the Panthers losing standout rookie corner Jaycee Horn to a foot injury.
Of Dak Prescott’s ancillary pass catchers, the best bet is Cedrick WIlson, as the Panthers are ranked 18th in DVOA versus non-WR1/2s. Carolina is ranked fifth in DVOA versus tight ends. Dalton Schultz’s big game last week, he’s still splitting snaps with Blake Jarwin.
- Cash Plays: Chuba Hubbard
- GPP Plays: Robby Anderson, Terrace Marshall, Tommy Tremble, Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Cedrick Wilson
Betting Pick
My favorite play in this game isn’t a side or total, but a prop: Robby Anderson over 50.5 receiving yards. This has all the makings of an Anderson game. After catching only five passes in the first three games, the Panthers coaching staff has talked of getting Anderson going. Without Christian McCaffrey and Dan Arnold, who were averaging a combined 7.7 catches per game, Anderson should be Sam Darnold’s clear No. 2 target behind D.J. Moore in what could be the Panthers’ first negative game script of the season. With top cornerback Trevon Diggs playing out of his mind, the Cowboys defense has funneled the ball to No. 2 wide receivers, allowing the second-most schedule-adjusted targets per game to WR2s (10.1), according to Football Outsiders. Anderson has racked up 55 receiving yards or more in 11-of-19 (58%) career games as a Panther.
Three weeks into the season, the Cowboys have the 15th-best defense by DVOA, which is even more impressive given that they’ve faced Tom Brady, Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts. The Panthers have the No. 1 defense by DVOA, but they’ve faced Zach Wilson, Jameis Winston and Davis Mills. I’d lean Cowboys and the under, but will likely stay away because the Panthers are on long rest while the Cowboys are on short week, plus we still don’t know much about the Panthers due to their schedule.
Pick: Robby Anderson over 50.5 receiving yards (to 54.5)
Leans: Cowboys -4.5, Under 51.5
Giants at Saints
DFS Plays
This game is all about Alvin Kamara and both DSTs. Saquon Barkley is a fade due to the Saints’ strong run defense.
Marquez Callaway only ran 62% of the routes for the Saints last week. The entire Saints receiving game is too muddled too trust right now.
For the Giants, coach Joe Judge hinted at unleashing rookie first-round pick Kadarius Toney this week. This is a brutal spot for Kenny Golladay against Marshom Lattimore, who is rated as PFF’s No. 1 corner; and for Evan Engram against the fourth-best defense in DVOA versus tight ends. That leaves Toney and Collin Johnson, who posted a 5-51-0 line on seven targets last week, as the likely leading receivers for New York.
I also like Daniel Jones as a post-hype sleeper play in this matchup. It should be ugly, but with a limited receiving corps and facing a Saints defense that plays a ton of Cover 2 man, leaving two deep safeties and defenders turned around following their man in coverage, Jones could have a huge rushing day.
- Cash Plays: None
- GPP Plays: Alvin Kamara, Saints DST, Daniel Jones, Kadarius Toney, Collin Johnson, Giants DST
Betting Pick
My play in this game is the first-half under. The Giants are ranked 25th in first-half pace and the Saints are ranked 29th. Giants and Saints have combined to go 5-1 toward the first-half under this season, averaging a combined 18.0 points per game. With both teams’ offensive lines (and offenses) banged up, I don’t think we’ll see anything overly aggressive from either side early.
Everything points to an ugly Giants cover here: Daniel Jones is 10-4 (71%) ATS on the road and 9-2 (82%) ATS as a road underdog while Jameis Winston is 5-13-1 (28%) as an underdog. On top of that, Sean Payton-coached teams are just 2-13 (17%) ATS as favorites or six points or more coming off a one-game winning streak (i.e., they won the lost game but lost the one before).
With all that being said, I’m not sure I can bring myself to bet on the Giants given how out-manned they are in the trenches. The Giants are already on their fourth left guard of the season and face a Saints defense that is allowing just 2.5 yards per carry to opposing running backs. The Saints will be without left tackle Terron Armstead and center Eric McCoy, but the Saints have adequate depth to hold up in their absence. The Giants should still struggle to generate pressure on Winston, as they rank 26th in pressure rate (20.9%), according to Pro Football Reference.
The Giants also will be without top wide receivers Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton, and Jones will have to contend with a rawkus Superdome crowd in the Saints first true home game at capacity since before the pandemic.
Pick: First half under 21 (to 20)
Chiefs at Eagles
DFS Plays
Jalen Hurts faces a Chiefs defense that is ranked 32nd in pass DVOA and has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. He’s my cash game QB. DeVonta Smith has been the team’s leading route runner at WR and Zach Ertz has been so at TE, but Jalen Reagor, Quez Watkins and Dallas Goedert all qualify as dart-throw options. Given the muddled receiving game for Philly, the best option remains not stacking Hurts with anyone.
This is also a good buy-low spot for Miles Sanders. After a two-carry game in a blowout loss last week, you just know coach Nick Sirianni is going to preach establishing the run early this week. A Chiefs defense ranked 32nd in rushing DVOA will oblige.
Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are in play every week in GPPs alongside Patrick Mahomes, but this is another week where I’d trust Kelce more. Gannon will employ a similar scheme to Staley, leaving two safeties deep and funneling the ball away from the perimeter. Through three games, the Eagles have allowed an NFL-low 102.3 yards per game to opposing wide receivers.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is cheap enough to fire up in GPPs against an Eagles defensive front missing Graham. Edwards-Helaire is averaging 16.3 touches per game. He will face an Eagles defense that is ranked 22nd in rushing DVOA and has allowed 6.0 catches per game to opposing running backs.
- Cash Plays: Jalen Hurts
- GPP Plays: Patrick Mahomes, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Miles Sanders, Devonta Smith, Jalen Reagor, Quez Watkins, Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert
Betting Pick
This is a stay away for me. The Chiefs are 2-12 (14%) ATS in their last 14 games and face a Jonathan Gannon defense that employs a similar scheme to the Brandon Staley unit that shut them down last week to the tune of 24 points and four turnovers. However, the Eagles are coming off a short week and are dealing with absences of left tackle Jordan Mailata (out – knee), right guard Brandon Brooks (IR – pectoral) and defensive end Brandon Graham (IR – Achilles).
Games played at Lincoln Financial field are 30-12 (71%) to the under since 2015, but totals in the 55-57 range league wide are 25-13-1 (66%) over that span.
Pick: Pass
Texans at Bills
DFS Plays
Josh Allen is always in play, but the game script could render this a Zack Moss-Bills DST type of game with the Bills favored by more than teo TDs. Last week, Moss out-snapped Singletary 56% to 43%, and out-touched him 16-12. The Texans are ranked top seven in DVOA versus WR1s, WR2s and other WRs, but 26th in DVOA versus tight ends, so I’m going with Dawson Knox if I stack Allen with anyone other than Stefon Diggs, who still deserves GP consideration as the team’s alpha WR1. I’m fine selling high and fading Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley after their Week 3 eruptions.
For Houston, the only player we can trust at this point is Brandin Cooks, who is averaging 7.7 catches for 107.3 yards per game. It won’t be easy for Cooks, though, as the Bills can stick Tre’Davious White on him. Buffalo has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
- Cash Plays: None
- GPP Plays: Josh Allen, Zack Moss, Stefon Diggs, Dawson Knox, Bills DST, Brandin Cooks
Betting Pick
This is a pass for me. The Bills are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games, and Sean McDermott is 38-26-3 (59%) ATS as coach of the Bills, but they’re only 1-2 ATS when favored by more than 7.5 points.
Pick: Pass
Cardinals at Rams
DFS Plays
Cooper Kupp remains the top cash game option at WR. He has posted at least 10 targets, seven catches, 96 yards and a TD in each game this season.
Robert Woods is the top pivot off Kupp in the Rams passing game. The Cardinals are ranked No. 1 in DVOA versus tight ends and No. 2 in DVOA on deep passes, which should limit the production of Tyler Higbee and DeSean Jackson, respectively. Given the Cardinals could take the deep ball away, I’m also fading Matthew Stafford this week.
With Darrell Henderson due back from a rib injury, this backfield is on wait-and-see status. I’d still fire up the Rams DST against Murray, who could be limited on the ground and has already thrown four picks this season.
DeAndre Hopkins averaged only 43.5 yards on 6.0 catches in two games against the Rams last season. With Murray likely forced to stay in the pocket. With Murray likely forced to stay in the pocket, I’d look to stack him with Christian Kirk, A.J. Green and Rondale Moore in GPPs. Moore ran a route on a season-high 59% of the dropbacks in a Week 2 shootout with the Vikings, and the game script could demand he set a new season high.
After James Conner scored two TDs last week, this should be a Chase Edmonds game. Edmonds is quietly averaging 15.7 touches per game and faces a Rams defense ranked 21st in rushing DVOA and is allowing 6.3 catches per game to opposing running backs.
- Cash Plays: Cooper Kupp
- GPP Plays: Robert Woods, Rams DST, Kyler Murray, Chase Edmonds, Christian Kirk, A.J. Green, Rondale Moore
Betting Pick
The Rams’ zone-heavy scheme tends to be able to keep Kyler Murray in the pocket, so my favorite bet in this game is Murray under 33.5 rushing yards.
Here are Murray’s four rushing stat lines against the Rams:
1/3/21: 2 carries, 3 yards
12/6/20: 5 carries, 15 yards
12/29/19: 2 carries, 0 yards
12/1/19: 4 carries, 28 yards
Murrasy is averaging 5.7 carries for 23.3 yards per game this season, so he’s a strong bet to go under this prop.
The results for Kliff Kingsbury against Sean McVay haven’t been pretty for the Cardinals:
1/3/21: Rams 18, Cardinals 7
12/6/20: Rams 38, Cardinals 28
12/29/19: Rams 31, Cardinals 24
12/1/19: Rams 34, Cardinals 7
This is the best iteration of Kingsbury’s team thus far, but this may also bet the best iteration of McVay’s squad. I’d lean Rams based on past history but see the under on Murray’s rushing prop as the best bet.
Pick: Kyler Murray under 33.5 rushing yards (to 28.5)
Seahawks at 49ers
DFS Plays
With Gerald Everett on the COVID list, Will Dissly becomes a viable cash game punt play at near minimum price.
Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf are top-tier GPP plays against the 49ers’ banged up secondary.
The 49ers have allowed the eight-most fantasy points to opposing RBs, making Chris Carson a good leverage play off the Seahawks passing game.
For the 49ers, the top plays are Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Samuel has at least eight targets and five catches in every game. Aiyuk played a season-high 86% of the snaps last week and looks to finally be back in Kyle Shanahan’s good graces. Seattle has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts.
I expect Elijah Mitchell to eventually dominate backfield touches over Trey Sermon given that Mitchell averaged 18.0 touches in his two games while Sermon (59%) played fewer snaps than Kyle Juszczyk (69%) last week. Mitchell is worth a speculative dart throw if active, but he may not retain his full workload for another week.
- Cash Plays: Will Dissly
- GPP Plays: Russell Wilson, Chris Carson, Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk
Betting Pick
Something has to give here — neither Russell Wilson nor Jimmy Garoppolo have ever lost three games in a row — and I believe it’s going to be Garoppolo’s streak that falls.
The 49ers are banged up in the secondary with Jason Verett (IR – ACL), K’Waun Williams (out – calf) and Josh Norman (doubtful – chest), while Wilson has two receivers with which to pick apart this secondary in Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. Despite its second-half struggles, the Seattle offense is second in DVOA. The 49ers defense hasn’t been much stronger than Seattle’s — ranking 19th in DVOA to Seattle’s 24th — so this is a true coin flip game, especially if George Kittle (questionable – calf) is out or limited.
Per our Action Labs data, Wilson has covered the spread 65% of the time off a loss.
Pete Carroll is also 13-2-1 (87%) ATS off a multi-game losing streak, including 7-1-1 (88%) with Wilson, who is also 20-11-2 (65%) ATS as a road underdog.
Kyle Shanahan is a great schemer who can often coax his team into performing above expectation against underdogs, but they’ve struggled as favorites, covering just 30% of the time.
Pick: Seahawks +3 (to +3 -120)
Ravens at Broncos
DFS Plays
The Ravens backfield is off limits with Latavius Murray leading the team in carries last week and Le’Veon Bell getting called up Saturday. The only plays on the Baltimore side are Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews. The Broncos rate third in DVOA versus tight ends, but they played a Giants offense without Evan Engram, the Jaguars in a game in which James O’Shaughnessy went down, and a Jets team in a game in which Tyler Kroft went down. Denver’s talented corners should have an easier time taking away Marquise Brown, and it’s questionable where Brown’s head and Jackson’s trust in him is at after Brown dropped over a football field worth of yardage last week and was held without a catch in the second half.
With the Ravens getting healthier on defense and the Broncos offense banged up, I’m playing the Ravens DST over all Broncos offensive players with the exception of Noah Fant, who could benefit from the absences of Jeudy and Hamler and have success against a Ravens defense that is ranked 19th in DVOA on targets to tight ends.
- Cash Plays: None
- GPP Plays: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Ravens DST, Noah Fant
Betting Pick
The Broncos are much like the Panthers in that it’s hard to get too excited given that they’ve faced three of the worst teams in the NFL in the Giants, Jaguars and Jets over the first three weeks. Denver’s passing game took another hit with K.J. Hamler (knee) joining Jerry Jeudy (ankle) on IR, and Melvin Gordon (questionable – ribs/leg) is also banged up. I’m betting that with a banged up offense, the Broncos won’t be able to outscore the first good quarterback they’ll face this season.
It’s true that Teddy Bridgewater is a ridiculous 38-14 (73%) ATS in his career, but he’s a more modest 15-11 (58%) ATS at home. Lamar Jackson, meanwhile, is 13-7 ATS on the road, covering by a whopping 8.5 points per game.
Pick: Ravens -1 (to -1 -120)
Steelers at Packers
DFS Plays
Najee Harris is a top-five RB play in fantasy this week and is cash-viable against a Packers defense that is ranked 25th in rushing DVOA and 24th in DVOA on passes to running backs. Harris is averaging a 96% snap rate and 20 touches per game.
JuJu Smith-Schuster should see less of Jaire Alexander than Diontae Johnson, making him Pittsburgh’s likely leading target. Smith-Schuster averaged 7.5 targets in his two healthy games and may have beat that total if he didn’t get injured last week. He’s viable in cash games against Packers slot corner Chandon Sullivan, who ranks 98th in PFF’s grades at the position.
Despite Claypool’s injury, Pittsburgh’s tight ends are still not in too much of a committee to trust. Eric Ebron is doing nothing, and Pat Freiermuth played a season-low 36% of snaps last week despite the team’s injuries at wide receiver.
I’m expecting a letdown spot for the Packers, so the only player I have interest in is Davante Adams.
- Cash Plays: Najee Harris, Juju Smith-Schuster
- GPP Plays: Davante Adams
Betting Pick
We’ve seen this movie before,
Mike Tomlin is 22-14 ATS on the road coming off a loss …
<!– Bet Labs Widget End →
The Steelers get reinforcements on both sides with the return of wide receiver Diontae Johnson (though Chase Claypool has been ruled out) and linebackers T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith. The Steelers will be out-manned in the trenches on offense, but they’ll have the edge in the trenches when they’re on defense. After falling to 1-2, they should be the more desperate team in Lambeau and keep it close if not win outright against the 2-1 Packers, who could be in for a bit of a letdown after jumping above .500 with a last-second win over San Francisco last week.
Pick: Steelers +6.5 (to +6)
DFS Cash Lineups
DraftKings
QB Jalen Hurts $6,900 vs. KC
RB Derrick Henry $8,800 vs. NYJ
RB Najee Harris $6,800 at GB
RB Chuba Hubbard $5,900 at DAL
WR Cooper Kupp $7,800 vs. ARI
WR Amari Cooper $6,000 vs. CAR
WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhene $3,200 at NYJ
TE Will Dissly $2,600 at SF
DST Jets $2,000 vs. TEN
FanDuel
QB Jalen Hurts $7,900 vs. KC
RB Derrick Henry $10,200 at NYJ
RB Najee Harris $8,200 at GB
RB Chuba Hubbard $6,300 at DAL
WR Cooper Kupp $8,600 vs. ARI
WR Juju Smith-Schuster $6,000 at GB
WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhene $5,300 at. NYJ
TE Will Dissly $4,400 at SF
DST Jets $3,000 vs. TEN
