I’m a fan of a good deal; who isn’t? I’m not talking about scrounging through the dollar DVD bin at Wal-Mart, but anytime I have a large purchase coming up, I’m apt to spend way too much time researching every possible model, price point, and the stores that have the product in stock.
My one rule when bargain shopping is to make sure that the product has merit and can stand on its own, regardless of price. Just because something is cheap, doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a good deal.
Applying this same concept to DFS, we always need to ensure that the player has merit and can meet their expected point value, regardless of how cheap they are. A minimum player who posts a zero in your lineup will likely have mitigated any added value you’ve gained by being able to fit in the salary of a stud that week.
With this in mind, our look at bargains may be a bit different than other columns you’ve seen at other sites. The focus won’t necessarily be on the cheapest option available, but instead the focus will lean towards finding a few great values on DraftKings, as compared to FanDuel and Yahoo pricing.
Our main method of measuring this will be Fantasy Labs’ Bargain Rating, which is a metric that allows us to measure how much of a discount a player is from one site to another.
We’ll also factor in overall price in relation to their position, price change over the past week and the past month.
And remember, you can always find a list of all players sorted by their Bargain Rating by visiting the Player Ratings page!
Brandon LaFell
Bargain Rating on DraftKings: 98%
Current Price: $4,300
Price change over last week: $200
Price change over last month: N/A
It’s generally difficult to find a great bargain at wide receiver on DraftKings, mainly due to its PPR format prioritizing wide receivers as compared to the half-point PPR formats offered on FanDuel and Yahoo. So when we see a player like LaFell coming into a week with a Bargain rating of 98%, it’s a great time to find room for him in your lineup.
In a plus matchup with a Buffalo secondary that has allowed 15 games of double-digit DK points, LaFell should have no trouble exceeding his implied point total of 9.04.
Positive matchups – Opponent Plus/Minus’ greater than 0.0 – have proven to be a great spot to utilize LaFell over the past two years, as he has had a Plus/Minus of +4.47 in those situations.
LaFell’s success in this game situation isn’t necessarily an outlier as compared to others at the position. Wide receivers with a projected Plus/Minus of 6.0 or greater and facing an opponent with an Opponent Position Plus/Minus between 0.0 and 2.0, have found comparable success.
Even if LaFell skews closer to the +4.05 Plus/Minus that the wide receiver group as a whole have produced than his Projected Plus/Minus of +6.2, the return on investment would still be superb. While a +4.05 Plus/Minus would certainly be acceptable, I think that may be aiming a bit low for LaFell.
In the twelve games that he has received at least seven targets as a Patriot, he has averaged 15.78 DK points, which is in line with our projection of 15.2 DK points this week. Already averaging 7.5 targets this season coming into Week 11, LaFell should have no trouble accruing at least that many again this week with Julian Edelman sidelined.
While his price is on the rise, LaFell is still far too cheap on DraftKings this week to not consider him. Costing only 8.6% of your DraftKings budget – as opposed to 11.5% on FanDuel and 11.0% on Yahoo – LaFell carries some nice upside at a discount price that will aid in your lineup construction this week.
Cam Newton
Bargain Rating on DraftKings: 92%
Current Price: $6,900
Price change over last week: -$100
Price change over last month: +$300
It might be tough to wrap your head around the fifth-highest priced quarterback of the week as an entry in a bargain column, but hear me out for a second. While Newton’s discount is not nearly as extreme as LaFell’s, taking advantage of subtle pricing discrepancies from site to site is an excellent way to gain an advantage over the field.
By opting to roll out Newton in your lineups on DraftKings, he’ll only be taking up 13.8% of your budget for a player that has been the third-highest scoring quarterback over the previous five weeks. For reference, if you opted to use him on FanDuel, he’d end up costing you 14.3% of your budget and a whopping 17.0% of your budget on Yahoo.
With the multitude of quality options available at quarterback this week, he may not be the first choice for your cash game quarterback. And while he’s certainly not in the “must-play” category this week, Newton does find himself in a great matchup as a home favorite.
Looking at his previous performances in similar games, he may deserve further consideration for a spot in your lineup this week.
As a home favorite in a positive matchup – an Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.1 or greater – Newton has returned great value over the past two seasons.
Newton has accounted for 80.77% of Carolina’s touchdowns this season. With the Panthers owners of a 26.3 point implied team total, he should at least be on your radar, as he has a very realistic chance at three or more scores against Washington’s middling defense this week.
With his price down $100 from last week, there is value to be had if you’re inclined to use him this week.
