Sunday’s NFL action wraps up with a matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Green Bay Packers at 8:20 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Aaron Rodgers at Captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $17,700 as opposed to $11,800.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: Get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
Studs
Rodgers was uncharacteristically poor in Week 1 vs. the Saints, but he bounced back with a nice performance vs. the Lions in Week 2. He racked up four touchdown passes and 255 passing yards, resulting in an average of 12.41 adjusted yards per attempt.
Unfortunately, he’s going to face a much stiffer test this week vs. the 49ers. The Lions possess one of the worst defensive units in football, but the 49ers are expected to be one of the best. They haven’t been quite as dominant as expected to start the year – they currently rank 11th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA – but part of that is due to some garbage yards and points accrued against them during garbage time.
Still, Rodgers will take the field as a home favorite, which is a role he has historically relished. Not only is he one of the best at covering the spread in that situation, but he’s also averaged 23.45 DraftKings points in those contests. That’s good for a Plus/Minus of +2.22 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
He owns the top ceiling projection in our NFL Models and should be a popular Captain.
The 49ers’ defense is good at a lot of things, but their secondary is uninspiring. There three primary cornerbacks rank 33rd, 64th, and 86th out of 100 qualifiers at the position per Pro Football Focus.
That means Davante Adams should have a field day in this matchup. He has blossomed into one of the most consistent producers regardless of position in all of fantasy. It felt like he barely broke a sweat vs. the Lions last week, yet he still racked up eight catches for 121 yards.
PFF gives Adams the largest edge of any receiver on the entire Week 3 slate, so he’s definitely an appealing option.
Aaron Jones was the beneficiary of three receiving touchdowns last week, and he added a fourth touchdown on the ground. Any four-touchdown performance is a fluky outcome, but Jones’ day seemed particularly fluky. Two of his touchdowns came on quick passes that were essentially like handoffs, so I don’t think you can count on those moving forward.
The 49ers also represent a significantly tougher matchup for Jones, who has not exactly thrived in his opportunities this season. He’s averaged just 3.5 yards per carry through his first two games, so his fantasy value has been derived almost exclusively from receptions and touchdowns. His ownership could be a bit higher than usual following last week’s performance, so I’m fine with fading him in this spot. I’m much more interested in Adams, and the two players are not particularly well-correlated.
Jimmy Garoppolo rounds out this tier, and he’s managed to return value in each of his first two starts. He also had a touchdown vultured by Trey Lance in Week 1, but Lance didn’t see the field at all last week. That’s a positive development for Garoppolo’s fantasy stock.
There’s no guarantee that Lance doesn’t make an appearance vs. the Packers, but that could actually work in our favor from a fantasy perspective. It will likely keep Garoppolo’s ownership reasonable, but he owns the third-highest ceiling projection in our Models. There will even be a chunk of people who roster Lance, and I expect those folks to be paying the rake on Sunday night.
Trey Sermon
I’m highlighting Sermon in his own special section on this slate. Every once in a while, a player will pop up as such a massive value that it becomes nearly impossible to fade them. Sermon falls into that category on Sunday.
The 49ers have had some dreadful injury luck with their running backs to start the year. Raheem Mostert is out for the year with a knee injury, while Elijah Mitchell and JaMychal Hasty will both sit vs. the Packers. That leaves Sermon to serve as their primary running back despite starting the season as a healthy scratch. The 49ers did activate Kerryon Johnson from the practice squad, but he seems unlikely to factor too heavily into the equation.
Sermon has had exactly one carry so far this season, but he was a third-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. He was extremely productive in college, averaging 7.5 yards per carrying, and he has decent athleticism metrics for his size.
Sermon is basically free at $3,000 on DraftKings, so expect him to be the highest-owned player on the slate. The question then becomes, “should I eat the chalk?” It’s always tempting to fade a player who could command 80% ownership, but he’s simply too good of a value to pass up. His Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings is nearly five points higher than his nearest competitor, and he just doesn’t have much bust potential at his current salary. I’d rather look to diversify my lineups elsewhere and potentially leave more salary than usual on the table.
Midrange
Back to our regularly scheduled programming. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are the top pass catchers for the 49ers, and they headline this price range.
Kittle is one of the top tight ends in football, but Samuel has been the 49ers’ clear alpha so far this season. He leads the team with a 35.7% market share, and Kittle is in second at just 16.1%. Samuel has also racked up more than 53.5% of the 49ers’ air yards, which is the second-highest mark in the entire league.
Samuel’s matchup vs. the Packers is an interesting one. They have one of the best cornerbacks in football in Jaire Alexander, but Samuel plays all over the formation. That means he’ll have a handful of snaps against Alexander, but he should also have plenty of routes against the Packers’ other corners. Kevin King and Eric Stokes both stand out as winnable matchups for Samuel, making this a solid matchup overall.
Kittle arguably has the better individual matchup. The Packers were unable to stop T.J. Hockenson last week, and they rank just 24th in DVOA vs. the position.
Overall, I’d give Samuel the slight edge based on his absurd volume to start the year, but both guys are definitely viable.
Robert Tonyan is next on the pricing spectrum, and he is almost always a fade for me. His fantasy value comes from scoring touchdowns, and while he’s been really good at that, it still makes him a volatile play on a week-to-week basis.
Brandon Aiyuk’s disappearance was a monster story in Week 1. He’s essentially in the doghouse at the moment, which has allowed some other receivers to pass him on the depth chart. He did see more snaps in Week 2, but a 54% snap share is nothing to get excited about. He also saw just two targets. You should be able to grab Aiyuk at minimal ownership, but he’s still too expensive for me.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a more appealing target. He didn’t catch a single pass last week, but his ceiling is extremely high given his role as a field stretcher. He’s racked up more than 45.5% of the Packers’ air yards this season, which is the seventh-highest mark in the league. If he can get behind the 49ers’ secondary once, he’ll likely find himself in the winning lineup.
Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard round out the Packers’ receiving corps, but neither player has been involved much to start the year. You don’t need either in your lineup, but if you’re going to play one, Cobb seems like the guy. He’s played on just 22% of the team’s offensive snaps this season, but head coach Matt LaFleur said he wants to get him “more involved” in the offense. That could just be coach-speak, but it’s worth considering. Cobb is also significantly cheaper than Lazard on FanDuel, which is another point in his favor.
Quick Hits
- Defenses and Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate your lineups around them.
- A.J. Dillon ($2,600 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Most of the players in this price range should carry minimal rostership given the presence of Sermon. Dillon wasn’t much of a factor last week, but he should be a consistent thorn in Jones’ side.
- Mohamed Sanu ($1,400 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Sanu’s snap share decreased to just 29% last week, and he’s seen only one target in each of his first two games.
- Trent Sherfield ($1,200 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Sherfield is the 49ers’ receiver I like most in this price range. He’s the only 49ers’ pass-catcher outside of Samuel and Kittle to see more than two targets this season, and he caught a touchdown in Week 1. His snap share also decreased last week, but he has more of a receiving role in the offense than Sanu or Aiyuk at the moment.
- Kyle Juszczyk ($800 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): Juszczyk has some pass-catching chops out of the backfield, and he could see a few more snaps than usual given the 49ers’ injury situation.
