Raybon’s Week 4 NFL DFS Breakdown: Vikings-Rams Thursday Showdown

UPDATE (Sep. 27, 8 p.m. ET): Dalvin Cook is active. Cook will reportedly be on a “pitch count,” making both he and Latavuis Murray intriguing GPP plays. Cook may potentially be under-owned due to workload concerns. Murray could still have a role and provides leverage off both Cook and the Vikings’ passing game, while Cook being active will drive down his ownership.

Here’s the breakdown for the Week 4 Thursday Night Football game featuring the Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams at 8:20 p.m. ET on FOX/NFL Network.

Good Matchups & Values

It’s a good buy-low spot on the Vikings, who should at least be able to keep this game close. Minnesota has covered the spread in two-thirds of its games as a road underdog under Mike Zimmer.

• How much do Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen benefit from the Rams’ injuries at cornerback (Aqib Talib has been placed on IR and Marcus Peters is a game-time call with a calf issue)? Through three games, LA has limited opposing wide receivers to a -3.2 average DraftKings Plus/Minus, best in the league by a full 1.3 points, according to our NFL Trends tool.
• The Rams have been dusted for a +6.3 average DraftKings Plus/Minus by opposing tight ends, the second-worst mark in the league. While much of the focus will be on how the Vikings wide receivers will match up with a suddenly depleted Rams cornerback unit minus Talib and potentially Peters as well, this matchup also sets up well for Kyle Rudolph.
• Dart-throw alert: David Morgan costs only $200 on DraftKings despite averaging 26 snaps per game and drawing three targets in the first two weeks before missing Week 3 due to injury. The same matchup-based factors that apply to Rudolph apply to Morgan (and rookie Tyler Conklin, though Conklin has played only 26 snaps total through three games).
• With his pass-catchers set up for good matchups, Kirk Cousins is in a sneaky-good spot. It’s reflected in his Projected Plus/Minus, which is second on the slate behind only Todd Gurley, and more than 4.5 higher than Jared Goff‘s as of this writing.
• Dart-throw alert No. 2: Aldrick Robinson played only nine snaps after being signed prior to Week 3, but that’s liable to increase with Laquon Treadwell in perpetual struggle mode. Robinson’s average reception has gone for 17.1 yards in his career, and two-thirds of his touchdowns have come from at least 35 yards out.
• Sustaining injuries that hurt their pass defense is the opposite of ideal for the Rams because that was the strength of their team: They rank second in pass defense DVOA but 28th against the run. Despite a shaky O-line, Dalvin Cook, who is averaging 17.5 touches and 6.0 targets per game, should be able to find some room.
• If Cook is out again, it’s also worth noting for GPPs that fullback C.J. Ham operated as a garbage-time receiving option last week, turning six targets into five catches for 47 yards. Ham is just $300 on DraftKings.

The Vikings, meanwhile, will be without Everson Griffen (knee/personal), who graded as the 11th-best edge defender in the league last season in Pro Football Focus’ charting.

• Gurley, who has the top projected median, floor and ceiling in our NFL Models, averages 27.01 DraftKings points, a +7.04 Plus/Minus, and 71% Consistency Rating under Sean McVay. A defense that held Gurley to his lowest output of the season in last year’s matchup has sprung leaks, ranking a pedestrian 12th in rush defense DVOA and giving up 15.3 yards per catch to opposing backs.
• Including the postseason, Cooper Kupp has posted 60-plus yards and/or a touchdown in nine of his past 10 games. His role as LA’s primary slot receiver will allow him to avoid Xavier Rhodes more than Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks.
• If you’re playing in large-field tournaments, keep in mind that Gurley’s backup, Malcolm Brown, has cleared 40 yards in each of the past two games and has at least one target in all three games this season.
• Sam Ficken is cheaper than Dan Bailey despite the Rams’ implied total of 28 and Minnesota’s of 21. Ficken has a top-three Projected Plus/Minus.

Tough Matchups & Fade Candidates

• D/STs are often underpriced on these one-game slates; this is not one of those times. With injuries impacting both sides on a short week, the over/under for this game has been bet up from 47 to 49.5, and both the Vikings D/ST and the Rams D/ST have bottom-four Projected Plus/Minuses in our DK Showdown Models.
• Laquon Treadwell‘s recent spike in usage has produced an unlikely touchdown, but just 74 yards on 14 targets through three weeks.

Roster Construction Notes

• The fantasy points of Rams QB and RB1 are linked to the tune of a .49 correlation — more than double that of the league-average QB-RB1 pairing over that span (.19) — according to our NFL Correlations tool.
• The fantasy points of Goff and his WR1 and WR2 have been strongly correlated under McVay. Rams QB-WR1 has a .73 correlation and Rams QB-WR2 has a .68 correlation, both of which are above the league averages of .51 and .41, respectively, over that span.
• Rams WR1-WR2 has a correlation of .38, more than four times as strong as the league average WR1-WR2 pairing.
• Rams RB1’s fantasy points have been positively correlated to every position on the team except TE1, which makes sense considering that a short touchdown scored by a Rams tight end would’ve likely been a touchdown for Gurley.
• Under McVay, Goff’s Plus/Minus is positively correlated with both the opposing WR1 (.42) and WR2 (.21), but it’s only .08 with the opposing QB, and it’s negative for all the other spots on the opposition.
• Since the start of last season, Minnesota’s QB and WR2 (usually Diggs) have a strong correlation (.72), but its QB-WR1 pairing (usually Thielen) is extremely weak (.07). That’s in part due to the fact that Diggs has 37.5% of the team’s touchdowns since the start of 2017 (including the postseason) while Thielen has only 12.5%.

Strategy & Leverage

Gurley is the top choice for the Captain/MVP slot in cash games. Kupp, Ficken and Latavius Murray (if Cook is out) are building blocks, as well.

As noted by Ian Hartitz in our Rams-Vikings betting guide, Diggs is on the wrong side of his indoor/outdoor splits, making him better suited for tourneys than cash games. An added plus in tourneys is that recency bias will drive ownership toward Thielen and away from Diggs.

In GPPs, Rudolph and Diggs are also in Captain/MVP consideration. Combined, they’ve accounted for 65% of Minnesota’s receiving scores since the start of last season (including playoffs).

Considering the correlations mentioned earlier, Cooks-Woods (or pairing either with Kupp) would be a better stack than Thielen-Diggs, but will likely carry less ownership.

Despite Gurley’s passing-game dominance being his best fantasy asset, he isn’t stacked with Goff as much as he should be. Since 2017, Goff’s average ownership is 4.6%, while Gurley’s is 18.6% on DraftKings. On FanDuel the discrepancy has been even wider: 2.5% for Goff, 21.2% for Gurley.

Both struggled in the last matchup, but with the Rams implied for one of the highest totals of the week at home, the odds are in favor of Goff-Gurley being a high floor/high ceiling combo even against a tough Vikings defense.

Speaking of Goff, he has historically been underpriced at home on DraftKings, where his home/road average Plus/Minus splits since 2017 are +3.3/+1.0; on FanDuel, his +1.7/+1.6 splits are nearly even. DraftKings may have overcorrected by pricing him $2,700 above Cousins and having him priced at 93% of Gurley’s salary; on FanDuel, Cousins is $1,000 more and Goff can be had at 82% of Gurley’s cost.

Tyler Higbee will likely be used primarily in order to jam in Gurley, so one way to gain leverage is to fade Gurley in Higbee lineups.

If Minnesota does cash as an underdog, it will likely come as the result of limiting the Rams to field goals, so Vikings stacks that bring it back with Ficken are a high-leverage correlation play. The same goes for pairing Cook/Murray with the Vikings D/ST in a contrarian correlation play.

Let’s get this shmoney!

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Chris Raybon is a Senior Editor at the Action Network and a co-host of “I’ll Take That Bet” on ESPN+. He has watched every snap of every NFL game since 2010 — even the kneel downs. Follow him on Twitter @ChrisRaybon and read about how he quit his accounting job and got paid to watch sports.