There are only four teams left in the NFL playoffs and none of them play particularly imposing pass defense. It is no surprise that Vegas projects both of these games to have more than 50 points scored. In order to be successful in small slate tournaments, it is crucial to nail the most successful receivers on the week. Let’s break down the notable WR/CB matchups using our NFL Matchups tool as a guide.
The Studs
Antonio Brown vs. Patriots Secondary
Since getting dominated by the Dolphins receivers in Week 2, the Patriots have allowed only two 100-yard receivers. One of those receivers was Brown with Landry Jones as his quarterback. He caught seven passes for 109 yards as the Patriots sold out to stop Le’Veon Bell on the ground and forced Jones to throw. Bell was limited to 3.86 yards per carry.
According to Sharp Football Stats, the Patriots have faced far and away the easiest schedule when it comes to passing efficiency of their opponents:
Interestingly, they have given up some strong receiving performances when they have faced teams that are less than terrible.
For the sake of argument, we can ignore the green bars above. In Week 2, they allowed Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker to combine for 243 receiving yards. They allowed Robert Woods to catch seven balls for 89 yards. And, of course, in Week 8 Brown went for 109 yards. Doug Baldwin had the biggest fantasy performance of the season in Week 10, catching three touchdowns. And finally, they surrendered nine catches for 76 yards and a touchdown to Landry in Week 17. Long story short: The matchup may not be as imposing as it seems.
Julio Jones vs. Packers Secondary
Julio was on his way to a monster game against the Seahawks before being limited with his toe injury again. On only 58 percent of the snaps, he managed 67 yards and a touchdown as the Falcons cruised to a relatively easy victory. Jones has not seen more than nine targets since Week 10.
That said, Julio draws a prime matchup against a Green Bay passing defense that cannot stop anyone. They have allowed seven 100-yard receivers and three to go over 180 receiving yards. For comparison, below are the NFL’s Next Gen Stats of Matt Ryan and the GB passing defense, via Matt Harmon of the NFL Network.
Clearly, Ryan is at his best throwing deep, and that is because he is often throwing to Jones. Julio owns an insane 42 percent of his team’s Air Yards, per Josh Hermsmeyer of RotoViz. If Julio is healthy, the Packers are in trouble against Ryan’s deep passing game. Plus, we can expect Kyle Shanahan to do whatever he can to get Julio on the right side of the field, where the Packers have been very poor (the red in the image above). All that said, it is notable that in their first meeting the Packers sold out to stop Julio, and he was able to catch only three balls for 29 yards while Ryan threw touchdowns to Taylor Gabriel and Mohamed Sanu.
Notable Matchups
Julian Edelman vs. William Gay
In what was one of the softer matchups of the weekend last week, Edelman roasted Kareem Jackson for 137 receiving yards and posted his second straight eight-catch game on 13 targets. This weekend, he draws what seems to be a tougher matchup against William Gay of the Steelers. Gay has graded out very strongly in coverage this season, ranking as Pro Football Focus’ No. 11 cornerback in coverage. However, Gay has had many seasons in which he has graded extremely poor in this category. He’s also 32 years old and ran a 4.51-second 40-yard dash. In his last matchup with a dynamic slot player, Gay surrendered 11 catches for 102 yards to Jarvis Landry in the Steelers’ Wild Card matchup against the Dolphins. This is a plus matchup for Edelman.
Davante Adams vs. Robert Alford
Note: Adams is dealing with an ankle injury and has not returned to practice.
Adams this season has run 49 percent of his routes at Alford’s RCB spot, and it’s possible that the Falcons could even use Alford in shadow coverage. While Alford has graded reasonably well (per PFF), the Falcons have struggled against outside receivers this season: They have given up over 140 yards receiving to Mike Evans, Tyrell Williams, and Michael Thomas. Adams caught 12 passes for 74 yards in their earlier matchup this year.
With Jordy Nelson out of the lineup, Adams led the Packers receivers with 10 targets last weekend. He now has 22 targets over the last two playoff games and is currently the highest-rated receiver in the Levitan DraftKings Player Model.
Randall Cobb vs. Brian Poole
Cobb and Doug Baldwin are both primary slot receivers, and Baldwin just managed 80 yards and a touchdown while mostly in Poole’s coverage. As mentioned last week, Poole is allowing the fewest fantasy points per route of the Falcons’ starting cornerbacks. However, the Falcons are allowing a high passer rating in the middle of the field on third down, per Sharp Football Stats.
Since becoming a full-time starter in 2014, Cobb has excelled in the middle of the field.
Cobb should be a go-to option for Rodgers when he needs to move the chains this weekend. He is the highest-rated receiver in the Levitan FanDuel Player Model.
Mohamed Sanu vs. Micah Hyde
With injuries to the Packers secondary, Hyde has taken over as the slot cornerback this season. Hyde is a safety and has been converted into a nickelback. He has not been very good in that role, grading as PFF’s 70th-ranked cornerback in coverage. Of the starting CBs on this slate, Hyde is allowing the second-most fantasy points per route. Sanu has not seen huge target totals, but he has been used in the red zone and has a receiving touchdown within the 10-yard line in back-to-back weeks. If the Packers sell out to stop Julio, Sanu should be busy.
