The Wild Card Weekend NFL Dashboard
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Wild Card Weekend Running Backs
“Welcome to the jungle, / We got fun n’ games.”
— W. Axl Rose
RB Pricing
Small slates are like small dogs: Harder to handle than expected, prone to biting, and sort of all the same. And I say that as someone who has a small dog and no idea what he’s talking about.
(And, yes, I ripped off that last paragraph from this week’s QB Breakdown, but I wrote it, and it’s not really plagiarism — “because it’s your dog.”)
Pricing patterns tend to be exaggerated in small slates, and that’s the case this week: There are significant gaps in the salary scale, and RB salaries are inflated on DraftKings and deflated on FanDuel (per our Bargain Rating metric).
Here’s some texture (courtesy of data in our Player Models): The guy priced as the slate’s RB1 is $3,500 DK and $2,000 FD more expensive than the RB2. The gap between those two RBs on each site is ridiculous, as is the extent to which the RB1 is so much more expensive on DK.
The RB1 is $10,300 on both DK and FD — even though FD has $10,000 more in salary cap space. If you want the RB1, you’ll have to pay an exorbitant price on DK, where he as a Bargain Rating of zero percent.
The Big One
As is probably already apparent, this slate has a top RB tier of one.
It’s Le’Ve-OH-sa, not Le’Veo-SAH
I’ve been saving that header all season. Delayed gratification. Tantric heading. Moving on . . .
On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod, guest David Kitchen mentioned Le’Veon Bell ($10,300 DK/FD) as a ‘chalk lock’ for the week. Indeed, he has the slate’s highest FantasyLabs ownership projection among not just RBs but also all players. Expected to be in more than 50 percent of guaranteed prize pool lineups, he’s the chalk de la chalk. His Le’Veownership will be high.
Bell has flat-out balled out this year, finishing the regular season as the RB1 in points per game (PPG) and Plus/Minus. Per our Trends tool:
Scoreless in his first five games of the season, Le’Veon’s been a beast since then. Per RotoViz:
And it’s not as if he was trash in the first five games, either.
It’s almost impossible to overstate how dominant Bell was this season. Despite missing four games, he led the entire NFL with 101 total evaded tackles (per Player Profiler). His 95.2 percent opportunity share also led the NFL. And he was fifth among all players (and first among RBs) with 6.3 receptions per game. (The studly David Johnson had ‘only’ 5.0 receptions per game.)
He’s in a good spot this week. He’s absurdly expensive — but even so he ‘Makes the Four’ as the No. 1 RB in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, and Sports Geek Models on FD, where he leads the slate with a 99 percent Bargain Rating and an unfathomable 17 Pro Trends. Of course, he also has a slate-high 10 Pro Trends on DK . . . and so he’s also the No. 1 RB there in the Levitan and Sports Geek Models.
Facing the Dolphins, the Steelers lead the slate as 10-point home favorites with an implied Vegas total of 28 points. Even though he’s had reverse home/road splits since becoming perhaps the best RB in the NFL in 2014, Bell has still been plenty productive as a home favorite over that time:
There are three primary concerns with Bell this week:
- He’s expensive.
- The Dolphins limited his production in Week 6.
- The revitalized DeAngelo Williams ($5,600 DK, $4,500 FD) might steal some snaps.
I’ve been sandbagging. Bell’s not just expensive. He’s all-time expensive: He’s now surpassed the previous RB salary records of $10,100 DK and $9,800 FD. (Bell was $10,400 DK last week, but I’m not counting that salary since he was inactive.)
How have RBs done when priced that high?
As players have approached the salary range in which Bell now finds himself, they’ve tended to underperform their salary-based expectations. Given where he’s priced, Le’Veon carries a lot of risk, especially in a small slate lacking in salary flexibility. If Bell is locked into a lineup, not only does his salary greatly limit the players who can be rostered with him. His salary also becomes a massive liability if he underperforms.
Given that his salary represents a large 20.6 percent of the salary cap on DK and 17.2 percent on FD, Le’Veon can’t simply be locked into lineups. Serious thought must go into the decision to roster him . . .
. . . especially since Le’Veon didn’t do well against the Dolphins earlier this season. That said, there were extenuating circumstances for that game — for starters, it was on the road and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger severely injured his knee in the second quarter — and it’s not as if Le’Veon was actually bad.
In a game the Steelers lost 15-30, Le’Veon made the best of the negative game flow. He had 10 carries and seven targets, which he turned into 53 rushing yards, 55 receiving yards, six receptions, a two-point conversion, 18.80 DK and 15.8 FD PPG, and +0.12 DK and +0.60 FD Plus/Minus values. In a worst-case scenario, Le’Veon still returned value. Barring an injury or unforeseen circumstances, Bell has a good chance of returning value against the Dolphins, who are 22nd against the rush in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
As for DeAngelo: Despite his volume-fueled performance in Week 17, he was inefficient — and he’s never presented himself as a threat to Bell in the 10 games they’ve played together:
Le’Veon carries risk because of his salary — but his median projections are higher than the ceiling projections for every other RB in the slate. That’s not an exaggeration.
Up the Gut
Three yards and a cloud of dust.
Jay Ajayi ($6,800 DK, $8,300 FD): His Week 16 outburst notwithstanding, Ajayi’s had a tough go of it recently, primarily because his offensive line has melted away like Voldemort’s face . . .
. . . but he’s still a guy with GPP-winning, multi-TD upside every week.
Since becoming the lead RB in Week 5, Ajayi in the aggregate has been a stud:
Of course, his +4.61 DK and +5.30 FD Plus/Minus values are counterbalanced by his 41.7 and 50.0 percent Consistency Ratings. For a guy with a lot of production, Ajayi doesn’t produce all that often.
It’s always a mixed bag with Ajayi. He’s seemingly locked in for a minimum of 18 touches per game, and he’s a better receiver than most people realize. In fact . . .
. . . Ajayi this year has basically been a volatile, less-targeted version of Bell. There are differences between the two players — Bell played in three fewer games, gets way more targets, and is probably a better athlete — but the point is that Ajayi is a workhorse with Le’Veon-esque production on a per-opportunity basis. His campaign has been utterly underappreciated.
At the same time, Ajayi always seems to lose valuable touches to Damien Williams ($3,600 DK, $4,900 FD) and Kenyan Drake ($3,000 DK, $5,100 FD), and he’s not in a good spot this week. The Dolphins are 10-point road underdogs implied to score only 18 points against the Steelers. Ajayi’s fortunate in that the Steelers this season have allowed 27.2 DK and 23.3 FD PPG to opposing RBs, but as someone not used heavily as a receiver he might not see his usual allotment of touches if the Steelers lead most of the game.
Playing in the same game with Bell and somewhat difficult to be rostered with him because of potential negative correlation and salary constraints, Ajayi might be the ideal GPP leverage play. He’s the only guy in the slate other than Le’Veon with multiple 200-yard rushing performances in the NFL.
Thomas Rawls ($5,700 DK, $7,100 FD): Last week, the Seahawks were 10-point favorites facing a 49ers team that had allowed opposing RBs to do this to them with double-digit carries:
The ostensible lead back for his team, Rawls had only eight carries, splitting work with rookie Alex Collins ($4,500 DK, $5,800 FD), who played better in reality if not fantasy:
As he was last week, Rawls is in a good spot. The Seahawks are eight-point home favorites implied to score 25.5 points against the Lions, who defensively have FO’s worst-ranked unit and are 23rd in rush DVOA.
Of course, none of that might matter. Aside from his Week 13 beatdown of the Panthers . . .
. . . Rawls has been the worst starting RB in the NFL.
He ‘should’ have a good game this week — but he should’ve had a good game last week, too.
Of all the starting RBs in the slate, Rawls has the lowest ceiling projections.
Ty Montgomery ($5,500 DK, $6,800 FD): In Ty’s six games without James Starks ($3,000 DK, $4,500 FD), he’s been inconsistent but productive:
Per our NFL News feed, Starks (concussion) has neither played nor practiced for the last four weeks and seems unlikely to play this weekend.
The problem, though, is that even if Starks is out Montgomery isn’t guaranteed to get the snaps or touches of a lead back. Fullback and Peyton Hillis fanboy Aaron Ripkowski ($4,100 DK, $4,700 FD) is starting to steal opportunities, playing a season-high 36 snaps last week (to Montgomery’s 35), and when Kuhn v.2.0 isn’t stealing touches inside the 10-yard line Montgomery has to worry about anti-RB chucker Aaron Rodgers opting to throw the ball as often as possible. In his six games as the lead back, Montgomery has had 15-plus touches just twice.
Uncertainty in playing time and opportunity aside, this isn’t a great spot anyway. The Packers are 4.5-point home favorites implied to score 24.5 points. All of that’s fine. Also, the forecast currently calls for a temperature of 13 degrees Fahrenheit, and RBs tend to experience a boost in production in cold weather.
But the Packers are hosting the Giants, who are FO’s No. 2 defense. Specifically, the Giants defense is third in rush DVOA and pass DVOA against RBs, and on the season opposing RBs have been held to 20.9 DK and 17.8 FD PPG — the sixth-lowest marks in the league:
On the positive side, Ty is priced no higher than RB5, and we’re projecting him to have lower ownership than a number of RBs whose ceiling projections are comparable to his.
Lamar Miller ($6,100 DK, $7,100 FD): The Texans are 3.5-point home favorites implied to score 20 points against the Raiders, who this year have allowed RBs to score the 10th-most fantasy points in the league: 24.8 DK and 22.0 FD PPG. Alfred Blue ($4,300 DK, $6,000 FD) has played as the lead back for the last couple of weeks as Miller (ankle) rested with his injury, but Miller is practicing this week and expected to play on Wild Card weekend.
Miller hasn’t been a horrible RB this year when the Texans are favorites . . .
. . . and he’s likely to have ample opportunity to touch the ball with the Raiders giving a rookie QB his first NFL start on Saturday.
Cheaper than Ajayi, Miller has higher median and ceiling projections and more Pro Trends. He also has higher projected ownership, but that’s the cost of saving $700 DK and $1,200 FD. Salary relief usually isn’t free.
By the way, I’ve spent about 20 minutes thinking about how to make a pun on Miller and Blue’s names. This is the best I came up with:
I don’t always drink beer, but when I do I prefer Miller Lite and Labatt Blue.
Of course, that pun sucks and it’s also a lie.
I prefer Coors Lite: 19 free six-packs of them.
The Super Models
This week, we (currently) have two non-Le’Veon Le’Ve-non RBs at the top of our Pro Models:
• Zach Zenner: $4,500 DK, $6,200 FD
• Rashad Jennings: $4,200 DK, $5,400 FD
Get on your bikes and ride!
Gimme All Your Lovin’
ZZ Top has been a sharp-dressed man for the last two weeks:
What Zenner did in Weeks 16-17 was not a fluke.
When a guy is a young 6’0″ and 223 lb. freak athlete with a 95th percentile SPARQ-x score, three 2,000-yard rushing seasons in college, and a 28/331/4 receiving stat line as a senior, he probably has the ability to turn 32 carries, eight targets, and three touches inside the 10-yard line into 202 yards, six receptions, and three TDs over two games.
Zenner is so bad/good he’s nationwide.
That said, he’s in perhaps the worst spot of the entire slate. The Lions are eight-point road underdogs implied to score only 17.5 points against the Seahawks, who are second in rush DVOA and this season have held RBs to only 20.2 DK and 17.2 FD PPG (the fourth-lowest marks in the league). In the words of Owen Wilson’s random character in Armageddon, “Scariest environment imaginable.”
But, still, whatever RB touches the Lions distribute are likely to go almost entirely to Zenner since Theo Riddick (wrist) is on IR and Dwayne Washington ($3,400 DK, $4,900 FD) is “still learning how to play NFL football” (per his offensive coordinator). Plus, Zenner is an underrated receiver, who has been targeted 15 times in the last four games. If the Lions trail, Zenner will likely be able to put his 78.3 percent catch rate to good use.
Cheaper than all of the starting RBs except for Jennings, Zenner is especially discounted on DK, where he’s the highest-rated RB in the Bales Model.
Say Anything
Cameron Crowe’s 1989 directorial debut, which helped popularize John Cusack, Ione Skye, Seattle, “In Your Eyes,” and being a stalker.
Also an unfortunate fact, because right now I need to say something — anything — about Jennings . . . and I really don’t know what to say except this: He’s currently the highest-rated RB in the CSURAM88 Model on DK because he’s cheap and second in the slate with five Pro Trends.
You could do worse than a guy averaging 15 carries and two targets per game over the last month — and I’m about to prove it.
The Coda
The Raiders are in disarray. They’re starting the Big Ten rookie version of Matt Barkley at QB, and their backfield is a three-headed monster:
• Latavius Murray: $5,000 DK, $6,700 FD
• Jalen Richard: $3,400 DK, $5,200 FD
• DeAndre Washington: $3,300 DK, $4,500 FD
After his two-game banishment to the inactive list in Weeks 12-13 and his two-snap tease in Week 14, ‘Dre has emerged over the last three weeks and thereby thrown this backfield into chaos.
In Week 17, D-Wash led the team with 21 snaps (Latavius, 16; Richard, 11), and he’s also been the most productive of the trio over the last three weeks:
Wash hasn’t gotten the ball a ton, but it’s hard to belittle double-digit opportunities, especially when the guy touching the ball has made the most of his recent chances.
Richard?
Wash’s return has prevented Richard from emerging, but it hasn’t kept him from maintaining his workload. Intriguingly, Wash and Richard have both scored TDs over the last three weeks, but Latavius — who this season has nine rushing TDs inside the five-yard line — is scoreless over that period.
And what about Latavius?
He’s still out-touching Washington, but not by much. Washington’s emergence seems to have capped Murray’s upside.
The Raiders are 3.5-point road underdogs implied to score a slate-low 16.5 points against the Texans, who are allowing only 22.2 DK and 18.9 FD PPG to RBs.
The prudent move would be to avoid this backfield entirely.
Perhaps the contrarian move would be to roster the guy who is the cheapest and recently has been the most productive — especially when we’re projecting him for two to four percent ownership.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other wild card weekend positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s RBs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
