The Wild Card Weekend NFL Dashboard
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Wild Card Weekend Quarterbacks
“We are two wild and crazy guys.”
— Georg Festrunk
A Few Words of Guidance
I consider the QB Breakdown to be the most important of the four positional pieces. It’s the longest, and it touches on the player (the QB) who has the most impact on a team’s offense and passing game in particular. As a result, if you read this piece, you’ll have a pretty decent idea of most of the players I’m going to write about and the analysis I’m going to give in the WR Breakdown and maybe even the TE Breakdown.
QB Pricing
Small slates are like small dogs: Harder to handle than expected, prone to biting, and sort of all the same. And I say that as someone who has a small dog and no idea what he’s talking about.
Pricing patterns tend to be exaggerated in small slates, and that’s the case this week: Per our Bargain Rating metric, the salaries of top-tier QBs are inflated on DraftKings and deflated on FanDuel. For the mid-tier and cheap QBs, the dynamic is reversed.
Here’s some texture (courtesy of data in our Player Models): On DK, the three most expensive QBs have Bargain Ratings no higher than 30 percent. On FD, only one QB has a Bargain Rating lower than that mark.
The Big Two
In terms of salary structure, year-to-date output, and expected ownership, this slate has a clear top tier of QBs: The Big Two. Per our Trends tool:
Unsurprisingly, the Big Two are the slate’s most expensive, most productive, and chalkiest QBs:
• Aaron Rodgers: $7,900 DK, $8,600 FD
• Ben Roethlisberger: $7,600 DK, $8,500 FD
In the words of Nada, “I’m all out of bubblegum.”
Ladies and Gentlemen, Your 2016 NFL MVP
Sometimes we have a near-consensus NFL MVP. For instance, Cam Newton received 48 of 50 votes for the award last year. This year there’s no near-consensus candidate . . . but I’m willing to bet some of Jonathan Bales’ money that A-Rod will be named MVP even though Matt Ryan will win the metaphorical popular vote.
Even though Rodgers didn’t start the season well, failing to hit the 300-yard mark in any game in Weeks 1-6, he finished the season as the QB1 in points per game (PPG) and Plus/Minus:
Rodgers this season has been the outlier. Even though he barely outproduced Alex Smith on a yards-per-pass basis (7.3 vs. 7.2), Rodgers was able to survive on a surfeit of volume, finishing fourth in the league with 610 pass attempts and 4,428 yards. Of course, he also finished first with 40 touchdowns passing, in part because he led the NFL inside the 10-yard line with 33 completions and 24 TDs.
It also doesn’t hurt Rodgers’ MVP case that he leads the Pack with four TDs rushing and is second with 369 yards on the ground. On the one hand, he doesn’t have a healthy established running back on the roster, so it’s easier for him to rack up rushing production. On the other hand, that he doesn’t have a locked-in go-to RB is kind of the point.
Rodgers has been a beast ever since RB Eddie Lacy went on the Injured Reserve in Week 7, when Rodgers turned his season around with his first 300/3 performance in almost a year:
Without a RB to demand touches, Rodgers is the Packers offense. It’s hard to say that the team needs a more balanced approach when it’s entering the playoffs on a six-game winning streak.
At the same time, Rodgers is in a bad spot. The Packers are 4.5-point home favorites with an implied Vegas total of 24.5 points. All of that’s fine. Rodgers throughout his career has been strong as a home favorite. Per RotoViz:
But the Packers are hosting the Giants, who this year have held QBs to the second-fewest fantasy points: 14.2 DK and 13.5 FD PPG. The Giants have Football Outsiders’ No. 2 defense, and they are fourth against the pass and third against the rush in FO’s Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Specifically, the Giants have proven themselves capable of challenging wide receivers. Overall, they’re second, fifth, and seventh in pass DVOA against WR1s, WR2s, and supplementary WRs. Rodgers might struggle when targeting Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, and Randall Cobb or Geronimo Allison. And what about Ty Montgomery? The Giants are No. 3 in pass DVOA against RBs. Unless the Packers plan for him to throw 20 passes to tight ends Jared Cook and Richard Rodgers, A-Rod is likely to commit most of his targets to players in tough matchups.
The Giants have been outstandingly tough against QBs this year . . .
. . . including Rodgers. In Week 4, the Giants in Green Bay held him to 259 yards and two TDs on 45 pass attempts. He also threw two interceptions. He finished with 17.9 fantasy points and -2.31 DK and -2.62 FD Plus/Minus values.
The Packers won 23-16 and covered the seven-point spread — but DFS players who rostered Rodgers lost, and the Packers failed to reach their implied total.
In this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex pod, we talked about how one of the most important decisions of this slate is whether to roster Rodgers or Roethlisberger. Take care in making this decision:
(It was time for a GIF.) We’re expecting Rodgers to be owned in more than 25 percent of guaranteed prize pool lineups, and our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.
A House Is Not a Home — But Heinz Field is a Home
All year, I’ve talked about Roethlisberger’s home/road splits. This week, the Steelers are 10-point home favorites implied to score a slate-high 28.25 points against the Dolphins.
Ever since Roethlisberger started throwing the ball to WR Antonio Brown 10 times per game in 2013, he’s been a beast as a non-divisional home favorite:
In theory, the Dolphins defense is respectable, ranking 14th in pass DVOA. In reality fantasy, however, the Dolphins this season have allowed QBs to score 20.7 DK and 19.7 PPG — the third- and fourth-most fantasy points in the league.
The Browns allowed the most points to QBs this year: 21.0 DK and 20.0 FD PPG. The Dolphins trail those marks by 0.3 PPG. If the Steelers were playing the Browns this week . . .
. . . I probably don’t need to finish that sentence. Suffice it to say that the Steelers are playing the arbitrage (non-divisional) Browns.
The pessimist will point to the Week 6 game in which the Dolphins flogged the Steelers 30-15 and Roethlisberger completed only 55.9 percent of his 34 passes for 189 yards, one TD, two interceptions, and 11.6 fantasy points.
Here’s why that game shouldn’t be privileged:
- The Steelers were on the road, where Ben is one of the most uninspiring QBs in the league.
- Roethlisberger tore his left meniscus in the second quarter, left the game, and then returned after halftime. His knee was reportedly black and blue after the contest. He had a “cleanup procedure” shortly afterward and missed Week 7. (The Steelers had a bye in Week 8.) Ben’s lack of production in that game shouldn’t be held against him. He was an injured player trying to tough out the game for his team.
- The Dolphins are not the team they were then. Even though they used that game as the launching pad to their 9-2 run to the playoffs, they are highly likely to be without starting QB Ryan Tannehill (per the NFL News feed), who’s still recovering from a knee injury.
- The Dolphins are also drastically different on defense. Starting safeties Isa Abdul-Quddus and Reshad Jones, both of whom intercepted Roethlisberger in Week 6, are now on IR. Also, even though he might play, cornerback Byron Maxwell is dealing with a knee injury. He’s not a healthy asset.
It’s not that the Week 6 contest should be ignored entirely, but it probably shouldn’t be treated as anything other than one random game from almost three months ago. The circumstances are vastly different.
The Steelers are riding a seven-game winning streak, and over the last two years in particular Ben has been deadly at home outside of division:
As of now, he doesn’t have the position’s highest median projection — but he easily has the highest ceiling and floor projections.
Ben is the No. 1 QB in the CSURAM88 and Sports Geek Models on DK, where he leads the slate with five Pro Trends.
Avert your eyes if you don’t like bright pink flashing lights:
We’re projecting him to be the slate’s highest-owned QB.
Hot Routes
The ball’s coming your way.
Matt Moore ($5,100 DK, $6,900 FD): On the positive side, Moore has eight TDs in his three starts and a slate-high 88 percent DK Bargain Rating. The Dolphins are participating in the game with the highest over/under, and they’ve let Moore attempt a greater number of passes each week.
On the negative side, Moore is yet to hit 250 yards in a contest, and his production has come against three teams with subpar passing defenses. On top of that, the Dolphins are implied to score only 18 points against the Steelers, who are 12th in pass DVOA and allowing only 16.4 DK and 15.4 FD PPG to QBs.
Moore is the slate’s only passer with negative Projected Plus/Minus values on both DK and FD.
Eli Manning ($6,100 DK, $7,500 FD): The Giants are 4.5-point road underdogs implied to score only 20 points against the Packers. In his three years in head coach (and former offensive coordinator) Ben McAdoo’s system, Eli isn’t his best as an underdog . . .
. . . especially when he’s on the road:
Note his 35 percent Consistency over that time. It’s noteworthy for two reasons:
- It’s horrible.
- It’s great in comparison to his 2016 Consistency as a road dog:
For the first month of the season, Odell Beckham Jr. was merely ‘average’/good. For the last three months, he’s been the league’s most productive fantasy WR. Over that exact same time frame, Eli’s been worse than Blake Bortles and almost every other objectively bad NFL QB:
A hot OBJ on his own won’t save Eli.
Eli, though, is fortunate in that the Packers have something of a QB-friendly funnel defense that is 22nd in pass DVOA and has allowed 20.1 DK and 18.8 FD PPG to the position this year.
Then again, the Giants-Packers forecast calls for a temperature of nine degrees Fahrenheit — and Eli isn’t one of the QBs who crush in cold weather.
The Super Models
As I write this, three non-Roethlisberger QBs are atop our Pro Models:
• Russell Wilson: $7,000 DK, $7,700 FD
• Matthew Stafford: $5,700 DK, $7,200 FD
• Brock Osweiler: $5,100 DK, $6,700 FD
Bang a gong.
“I’m Sorry, Wilson! Wilson, I’m Sorry!”
In Weeks 13-14, Wilson was one of the worst QBs in North America:
In Weeks 15-16, he was the most productive QB in the NFL:
And then last week Wilson was mediocre in a game the Seahawks wanted to win, completing only 59.4 percent of his 32 passes for 258 yards, a TD, and 14.7 fantasy points against the woeful 49ers.
Which Wilson will show up for wild card weekend?
Wilson has been a bipolar roller this season. In any given week, it’s been hard to predict which version of Wilson will manifest.
This week, though, we’re expecting good R-Will to show, as the Hawks are eight-point home favorites implied to score 25.5 points against the Lions, who are dead last in pass DVOA and have allowed QBs to score 20.9 DK and 19.6 FD PPG — the second- and fourth-highest marks in the league.
Wilson leads the slate with a +2.56 Projected Plus/Minus on FD, where (for the second week in a row) he ‘Makes the Four’ as the highest-rated QB in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, and Sports Geek Models. He leads the slate with an 80 percent FD Bargain Rating.
Cheaper and projected for lower ownership than Rodgers, Wilson could make an excellent arbitrage play: Even though he has the lower median projection of the two, Wilson nearly matches Rodgers with his ceiling and floor projections.
“Middle Fingers Up”
Stafford can claim all he wants that his dislocated middle finger isn’t a problem, but . . .
. . . in the four games he’s played with the injury Stafford has been a douche liability:
In reality he’s been even worse than those numbers suggest, inflating his production with two unrepresentative rushing TDs.
And this week the Lions are eight-point road underdogs implied to score only 17.5 points against the Seahawks, who this year have held QBs to the fourth-fewest fantasy points in the league: 15.7 DK and 15.0 FD PPG.
As a road underdog with Jim Caldwell as his coach over the last three years, Stafford has suffered from negative home/road and favorite/dog splits, which make him significantly less than his best self when combined:
So why is Stafford currently the highest-rated DK QB in the Bales Model? Probably because, of the cheap QBs, he has the highest floor projection as well as Projected Plus/Minus.
He’s not a great play given his injury, matchup, and splits — but at least Stafford is cheap and will have low ownership.
The Levitanimal in Action
The Wizard of Oz is currently the No. 1 DK QB in the Levitan Model — and as I write this very sentence the Levitanimal is telling us that we need to raise Roethlisberger’s projection so that Osweiler is no longer the top QB in his Model. (We take our projection process extremely seriously.)
The starter-turned-backup-turned-fill-in-starter has a few factors in his favor. His 76 percent DK Bargain Rating is the second-highest mark in the slate, we’re projecting him for little ownership, and the Texans are actually four-point home favorites over the Raiders, who are 25th in pass DVOA. Also, he’s the cheapest home QB to face the Raiders this year, so . . . I think that’s a positive indicator?
At the same time, Osweiler is a below-average passer — his 5.8 yards per attempt is the worst in the league among all qualified players — and this year the Raiders have been ungenerous to home QBs priced within $1,500 of Osweiler:
I see how he could be the top DK QB in the Levitan Model — which heavily weights Bargain Rating and Projected Points Per Dollar — but this year Oz has completed a lower percentage of his passes and thrown fewer TDs than Colin Kaepernick.
Just think about that for a minute . . .
. . . and then take a sad shower.
The Coda
A fourth-round rookie about to make his first career start in the playoffs, Connor Cook ($5,000 DK, $6,100 FD) is a sea voyager in uncharted waters. Using the entire database at Pro Football Reference, I ran a screen for previous rookie QBs who found themselves in a similar situation. Here’s what pooped popped up:
Well . . . that doesn’t look good.
Cook was a three-year starter at Michigan State. Despite playing in a minimum of 13 games each year he started, he never passed for at least 3,250 yards or 25 TDs. He never completed even 60 percent of his passes. And with fewer than 100 yards rushing each season — college stat keepers count sacks as rush attempts — Cook was basically an immobile statue in the pocket.
Based on a variety of factors, the QB to whom Cook was most comparable entering the league was . . .
. . . Chris Simms. If he weren’t Phil Simms’ son, we wouldn’t remember that he even exists.
The Raiders are four-point road underdogs implied to score a slate-low 16.5 points against the Texans, who this season have held QBs to 15.0 DK and 14.7 FD PPG — the third-lowest marks in the league.
Within our Player Model, Cook matches for like 20 of my personal trends . . .
. . . the negative trends.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other wild card weekend positional breakdowns:
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s QBs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
